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Your exposure · Country · Sub-Saharan Africa

Namibia

Namibia imports all its fuel. Hormuz Gulf producers supplied 24.9% of product imports in 2025, down from 37.9% in 2024, as Oman and India gained. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Namibia?

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  • Region Sub-Saharan Africa · Southern Africa
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Namibia in our readings

Namibia is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

  • Geopolitics and conflict

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    1.1 /10range 0.0–2.3 partial

    First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.

    Data: European Commission Joint Research Centre (INFORM), INFORM Risk; Natural Earth; Strature, forecast register; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP battle deaths; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP event data; World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators

  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Supply chains and chokepoints

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Energy and resources

    Outlook

    Elevated

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Technology and cyber

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Regulation and compliance

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    4.3 /10range 3.3–5.2 partial

    First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.

    Data: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators

  • Finance and markets

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

Compare Namibia on the outlook map

Dates for Namibia on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 3 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Namibia

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Namibia makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly Pump-price reviews and the National Energy Fund. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Oct 2026 Bank of Namibia policy decision; repo at 6.75%. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Reserves (N$57.1bn in Jul 2026) and import cover. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Namibia?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Namibia, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Namibia on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Namibia.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Namibia

Namibia imports all its fuel. Hormuz Gulf producers supplied 24.9% of product imports in 2025, down from 37.9% in 2024, as Oman and India gained.

Theme band Medium

24.9%

of product imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (2025)

46.2%

from all Gulf producers including Oman (2025)

57.1

N$ bn of reserves, about 3.5 months of imports (Jul 2026)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Trade: the goods deficit widened to N$19.3bn in H1 2026 from N$12.8bn, mainly on fuel payments.
  • Prices: inflation rose to 4.4% in Jun 2026 on transport; the Bank of Namibia expects 4.0% for 2026.
  • Supply: one off-spec jet fuel cargo at Walvis Bay disrupted Windhoek flights in Aug 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Fiscal: fuel levies were reported halved from Apr 2026 through the National Energy Fund. Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • Walvis Bay may gain from Cape-route diversions and bunkering. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Urea from inside the Strait fell to 0.0% of imports in 2025; Oman, which loads outside it, supplied 60.6% and Nigeria 35.6%.
  • Domestic oil from the Orange Basin is reported to be expected by 2030. Estimate from press or commentary

Uncertainties

  • How much of the Omani and Indian product is refined from Gulf crude.
  • The levy cut rests on a secondary press report. Estimate from press or commentary
  • No Gulf investment in Namibia's green hydrogen projects was found. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • MonthlyPump-price reviews and the National Energy Fund.
  • Oct 2026Bank of Namibia policy decision; repo at 6.75%.
  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves.
  • MonthlyReserves (N$57.1bn in Jul 2026) and import cover.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refined productsDependence24.9% 2025Share of refined product imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman)MediumHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
Fertiliser (urea)Food and farming0% 2025Share of urea imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman)Below lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
Exports to the GulfTradeUS$153.5m 2025Goods exports to GCC6 + IranBelow lineHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Gulf share of refined product imports, 2025 (%)
Share of refined product imports from all Gulf producers including Oman: 46.2% (2025)All Gulf producers in…46.2Share of refined product imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman): 24.9% (2025)Hormuz Gulf producers24.9

GulfElsewhere

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): Namibia imports HS 2710 by partner, 2025.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Scenario: combined one-quarter FX hit (fuel + urea; Hormuz urea nil in 2025) as a share of reserves: 1.03% of reserves (= (35.9 + 0) US$m / (N$57.1bn / 16.42 N$ per US$ = US$3.48bn); low 23.9/3,477 = 0.69%; high 47.9/3,477 = 1.38%. As % of 2025 GDP (US$15.08bn): 0.24% (0.16-0.32))
  • Scenario: extra product import bill for one quarter, Brent +US$15/bbl: US$35.9m (= 1.277 Mt (2025 products) × 7.5 bbl/t = 9.58m bbl a year; /4 × US$15; range US$10-20)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 19 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

ISO 3166-1 name: Namibia (NAM). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Namibia”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/nam/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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