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Morocco

Morocco gains and loses: OCP needs Gulf sulphur and ammonia (51.5% and 21.8% of imports) but can replace Gulf phosphate, about US$1.76bn a year extra at September's DAP price, our calculation, not a forecast. Approved reading

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  • Region Middle East and North Africa · North Africa
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Morocco in our readings

Morocco is in 1 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Low
  • Supply chains and chokepoints High
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Morocco on the outlook map

Dates for Morocco on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 3 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Morocco

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Morocco makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly World Bank DAP and phosphate rock prices; September DAP was US$800.6. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • 2026/27 season Orders from India, Brazil and Bangladesh that used to take Gulf DAP. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Morocco?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Morocco, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Morocco on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Morocco.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Morocco

Morocco gains and loses: OCP needs Gulf sulphur and ammonia (51.5% and 21.8% of imports) but can replace Gulf phosphate, about US$1.76bn a year extra at September's DAP price, our calculation, not a forecast.

Theme band High

51.5%

Gulf share of sulphur imports, by value (2025)

21.8%

Gulf share of ammonia imports, Oman excluded (2025)

US$11.1bn

Fertiliser exports, US$ bn (2025)

US$1.76bn

Extra DAP revenue a year at Sep 2026 prices, US$ bn (our calculation, not a forecast)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Sulphur. The Gulf supplied 51.5% of sulphur imports by value in 2025, and 6.79 Mt of 13.43 Mt by weight (50.5%). Sulphur makes the acid that turns phosphate rock into fertiliser.
  • Ammonia. Gulf producers that ship through the Strait supplied 21.8% of ammonia imports by value in 2025, mostly Saudi Arabia and Qatar; with Oman, which loads outside the Strait, the Gulf share was 23.9% (0.92 Mt of 3.49 Mt by weight).
  • Fuel. Morocco has no working refinery. The Gulf supplied 30.6% of product imports by value in 2025, led by Saudi Arabia.
  • Margins. If sulphur and ammonia rise faster than phosphate prices, the export gain shrinks. A press report put sulphur above US$1,000 a tonne in 2026. Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • Substitute supplier. The DAP price rose from US$626.5 a tonne in Feb 2026 to US$800.6 in September. Morocco exported 10.082 Mt of DAP in 2025.
  • Wide buyer base. Fertiliser exports were US$11.08bn in 2025, to India, Brazil, Bangladesh, the US and Australia. Many of these also bought Gulf fertiliser.
  • Phosphoric acid and rock. Exports were US$3.551bn and US$1.21bn in 2025. Phosphate rock rose from US$152.5 a tonne (Jan 2025-May 2026) to US$170 by Sep 2026.

Uncertainties

  • OCP's actual sulphur and ammonia stocks and contract cover. These are not public.
  • How much extra DAP OCP can ship at short notice; the scenario uses 2025 volumes.
  • The Gulf share of remittances. Total remittances were US$13.657bn in 2025; most Moroccans abroad live in Europe.

What to watch

  • MonthlyWorld Bank DAP and phosphate rock prices; September DAP was US$800.6.
  • QuarterlyOCP results: export volumes and input costs.
  • 20 Nov 2026The registered strike forecast resolves.
  • 2026/27 seasonOrders from India, Brazil and Bangladesh that used to take Gulf DAP.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
SulphurSupply chain51.5% 2025Share of sulphur imports (HS 2503) from Gulf producers (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%
Fertiliser (ammonia)Food and farming21.8% 2025Share of anhydrous ammonia imports (HS 281410) from Gulf producers that ship through the Strait (Oman excluded)LowHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
Refined productsDependence30.6% 2025Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Gulf producersMediumHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
Gulf capitalCapital and finance2.7% GDP 2025 low confidenceGCC fund as % of 2025 GDPBelow lineHigh ≥10% of GDP or ≥25% of FX reserves · Medium 2–10% of GDP · Low <2% of GDP but ≥US$1bn

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Morocco: Gulf share of key inputs, by value (2025)
Share of sulphur imports (HS 2503) from Gulf producers (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain): 51.5% (2025)Sulphur51.5Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Gulf producers: 30.6% (2025)Refined product30.6Share of anhydrous ammonia imports (HS 281410) from Gulf producers that ship through the Strait (Oman excluded): 21.8% (2025)Anhydrous ammonia21.8

GulfElsewhere

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): MAR imports HS 2503 by partner 2025; UN Comtrade (public API): MAR imports HS 281410 by partner 2025; UN Comtrade (public API): MAR imports HS 2710 by partner 2025.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Scenario: extra DAP export revenue in a year at the Sep 2026 price: US$1.76bn per year (= 10.082 Mt × (800.6 - 626.5) US$/t)
  • GCC fund as % of 2025 GDP: 2.7% GDP (= 5 / 182.374)
  • Scenario: extra DAP export revenue as % of GDP: 0.96% of GDP (= 1.755 / 182.374)
  • Scenario: Gulf sulphur to replace in one quarter if Gulf supply stops: 1.7 Mt per quarter (= 6.785 Mt / 4 = 1.696, stored as 1.70 Mt (input precision))
  • Scenario: Gulf ammonia (through the Strait) to replace in one quarter if Gulf supply stops: 0.21 Mt per quarter (= 0.834 Mt / 4 = 0.21 Mt)
  • Scenario: extra product import bill for one quarter if a renewed strike adds US$10-20/bbl: US$0.3bn per quarter (= 10.674 × 7.45 / 4 × 15)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 19 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

Strature analysis, not from the brief

Morocco: what passes the strait

Its phosphate fertiliser industry relies heavily on Gulf sulphur, and it imports all its oil and nearly all its gas.

Imports' share of its gas use, 2024 (calculated from EIA data): 95.4%

Route shares are modelled estimates; each figure carries its source. General research, not advice.

Open on the Hormuz page The briefing

ISO 3166-1 name: Morocco (MAR). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Morocco”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/mar/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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