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Lithuania

Lithuania's one refinery took 44.6% of its crude from Saudi Arabia in 2025 (4.43 Mt). Gas has no direct Gulf link: Klaipeda LNG took no Gulf cargoes in 2025. Medium band, on crude. Approved reading

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  • Region Europe · Central and Eastern Europe
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Lithuania in our readings

Lithuania is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

  • Geopolitics and conflict

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    1.0 /10range 0.0–2.3 partial

    First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.

    Data: European Commission Joint Research Centre (INFORM), INFORM Risk; Natural Earth; Strature, forecast register; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP battle deaths; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP event data; World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators

  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Supply chains and chokepoints

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Energy and resources

    Outlook

    Elevated

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Technology and cyber

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Regulation and compliance

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    2.4 /10range 1.5–3.3 partial

    First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.

    Data: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators

  • Finance and markets

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

Compare Lithuania on the outlook map

Dates for Lithuania on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Lithuania

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Lithuania makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Monthly Crude arrivals at Butinge by origin. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Brent and the EIA outlook (105 in Q4 2026). Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Lithuania?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Lithuania, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Lithuania on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Lithuania.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Lithuania

Lithuania's one refinery took 44.6% of its crude from Saudi Arabia in 2025 (4.43 Mt). Gas has no direct Gulf link: Klaipeda LNG took no Gulf cargoes in 2025. Medium band, on crude.

Theme band Medium

44.6%

Saudi share of crude imports, 2025 (value; 46.6% by weight)

4.43

Saudi crude, Mt, 2025

2.4

LNG via Klaipeda, Mt, 2025 (none from the Gulf)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Largest supplier, one refinery: Saudi Arabia shipped 4.43 of 9.52 Mt of crude in 2025.
  • Replacement crude is priced off a Brent that averaged US$114 in Sep 2026.
  • Any loss of Saudi cargoes falls on the Mazeikiai refinery, the country's only refinery.

Opportunities

  • Klaipeda LNG imports rose 35% in 2025 to 2.4 Mt with no Gulf cargoes, and the terminal supplies Finland and Poland.
  • Norway, the UK, Algeria and the US supplied nearly all the remaining crude in 2025 (30.3%, 15.0%, 9.1%, 1.0%).

Uncertainties

  • How much of the Saudi crude loaded at Yanbu on the Red Sea, outside the Strait; trade data do not show the port.
  • The Saudi share rose from 41.1% in 2024 to 44.6% in 2025; later origin data were not read.

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could cut Saudi Gulf loadings again.
  • MonthlyCrude arrivals at Butinge by origin.
  • MonthlyBrent and the EIA outlook (105 in Q4 2026).

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Crude oilEnergy44.6% 2025Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value)MediumHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Lithuanian crude imports by supplier, 2025 (value share %)
Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 44.6% (2025)Crude44.6

Gulf

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): Lithuania imports, crude oil (HS 2709) by partner, 2025.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Saudi crude to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 1.11 Mt (= 4.43 × 3 / 12 = 1.1075)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 19 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

ISO 3166-1 name: Lithuania (LTU). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Lithuania”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/ltu/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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