Sign in Get in touch
Your exposure · Country · Europe

Poland

Poland took 47.3% of its crude from Saudi Arabia in 2025, and Aramco supplies about 40% of Orlen's crude (as reported). LNG meets about 40% of gas demand (as reported), 26% of it Qatari (2025). Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Poland?

Using this page
  1. Read the questions our briefs address, and any country reading.
  2. Filter the questions by domain, series or topic.
  3. Open a brief for its free summary sheet and executive read.
  • Briefs 1 questions in 1 briefs
  • Region Europe · Central and Eastern Europe
  • Readings updated
Link to this page

Follow PolandSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Your exposure

Poland in our readings

Poland is in 1 of our country readings; High in 1.

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · POLAND
Poland imported 53.1% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
53.1%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 39.7%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Coal, 50.6%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 31.3% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Crude oil supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.372024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: moderately concentrated

Where Poland sits in value chains

  • 51% of the value of its motor vehicle exports was made abroad (foreign value added).OECD TiVA · 2022
  • 50.2% of the value of its electronics exports was made abroad (foreign value added).OECD TiVA · 2022

The EU's position in value chains (Poland is a member)

  • Design software and IP as part of the EU 25%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Chipmaking equipment as part of the EU 18%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Analog and other design as part of the EU 17%BCG and SIA · 2022

Shares as published, each with its own measure and period; never added across stages.

All stages on the value-chains page

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Value chains: BCG and SIA (facts-only: Copyright BCG and SIA; single facts cited with attribution (read via reproduction by a government office)); OECD TiVA (open: OECD, CC BY 4.0 (TiVA 2025 edition; third-party material excluded)). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Poland · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources High
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

  • Geopolitics and conflict

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    1.3 /10range 0.1–2.6 partial

    First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.

    Data: European Commission Joint Research Centre (INFORM), INFORM Risk; Natural Earth; Strature, forecast register; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP battle deaths; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP event data; World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators

  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Supply chains and chokepoints

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Energy and resources

    Outlook

    High

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Technology and cyber

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Regulation and compliance

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    3.2 /10range 2.4–4.1 partial

    First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.

    Data: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators

  • Finance and markets

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

Compare Poland on the outlook map

Dates for Poland on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 4 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Poland

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Our reading · Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Poland: no Hormuz shipping volume (tonnes or barrels) for it is on file, and the scenario cases need one.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Poland makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • 6 Nov 2026 End of the Q-023 six-week window for Saudi crude reaching buyers. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Polish crude arrivals by origin at Naftoport (Gdansk). Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Orlen spot crude purchases and any further Saudi cargo cancellations. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Swinoujscie LNG cargoes by origin. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Poland?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Poland, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Poland on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Poland

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Poland.

Chokepoints

Crude oil, import dependence
98%
Stock cover (oil stocks, days, as reported)
121 days (Mar 2026)

Saudi Arabia supplied almost half of its crude imports in 2025. 1

Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Crude oil, 2025: Suez 47% · Hormuz 38% · Bab el-Mandeb 38% (the route model covers 95% of its named imports) modelled
  • Refined fuels, 2024: Suez 5.0% · Bab el-Mandeb 4.0% · Hormuz 2.7% · Panama 1.4% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled
  • LPG, 2025: Panama 0.3% (the route model covers 77% of its named imports) modelled
  • LNG, 2022: Bab el-Mandeb 37% · Suez 37% · Hormuz 37% · Malacca 0.3% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled
  • Helium, 2025: Bab el-Mandeb 66% · Suez 66% · Malacca 66% (the route model covers 66% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz

Dashed underline = low confidence.

Flows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where Poland’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

Show the list

    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Questions our briefs address

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Poland.

    HighGulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for PolandGulfGulf war / Hormuz

    Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Poland

    Poland took 47.3% of its crude from Saudi Arabia in 2025, and Aramco supplies about 40% of Orlen's crude (as reported). LNG meets about 40% of gas demand (as reported), 26% of it Qatari (2025).est.

    Theme band High

    47.3%

    Gulf share of crude imports, 2025 (all Saudi; value, same by weight)

    12.04

    Saudi crude, Mt, 2025

    26%

    Qatar share of LNG imports, 2025

    160est.

    Saudi crude into Gdansk, kb/d, Jan-Sep 2026

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • A single Gulf supplier: Saudi Arabia shipped 12.04 Mt of 25.43 Mt imported in 2025. Saudi cargoes that load at Ras Tanura sit inside the Strait.
    • The bypass was interrupted in Sep 2026: Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after a drone attack and was reported to have cancelled some European cargoes. Gdansk had taken about 160 kb/d of Saudi crude this year. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Qatari LNG under Orlen's 2.0 Mt a year contracts was cut by force majeure, extended again on 28 Sep 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Price: Brent averaged US$114 in Sep 2026, and dated Brent cargoes cost about US$122 a barrel in mid-September. The EIA expects 105 in Q4 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Gas: LNG meets about 40% of Polish gas demand, so the loss of Qatari cargoes reaches the whole gas system. Estimate from press or commentary

    Opportunities

    • Norway supplied 31.3% of Polish crude in 2025, so a non-Gulf route exists through Gdansk.
    • Poland is a regional gas hub: LNG imports rose from 4.6 to 6.1 Mt in 2025, partly re-sent to Ukraine and Central and Eastern Europe.
    • Orlen bought replacement crude from the North Sea, the US, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Guyana in Sep 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
    • LNG capacity is growing: Swinoujscie can take 8.3 bcm a year, and a 6.1 bcm floating terminal is being built at Gdansk. Estimate from press or commentary

    Uncertainties

    • How much Saudi crude can reach Poland via the East-West line and Yanbu, outside the Strait, after the Sep 2026 shutdown (Q-023 models this for buyers in general). Estimate from press or commentary
    • Sources differ on the Qatari LNG share: almost a fifth (Bruegel), 21% in Q1 2026 (IEEFA), 26% in 2025 volumes (GIIGNL).
    • Stock cover: Eurostat data put Polish oil stocks at about 91.6 days in Jun 2026, after a 7.5 million barrel contribution to the IEA release (aggregator estimate). Estimate from press or commentary
    • Aramco owns 30% of the Gdansk refinery and agreed in 2022 to supply about 45% of Orlen's crude; how the contract treats cancelled cargoes is not public. Estimate from press or commentary

    What to watch

    • 6 Nov 2026End of the Q-023 six-week window for Saudi crude reaching buyers.
    • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could cut Saudi loadings inside the Gulf again.
    • MonthlyPolish crude arrivals by origin at Naftoport (Gdansk).
    • MonthlyOrlen spot crude purchases and any further Saudi cargo cancellations.
    • MonthlySwinoujscie LNG cargoes by origin.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Crude oilEnergy47.3% 2025Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value)MediumHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
    LNGEnergy26% 2025Share of LNG imports from Qatar (volume; UAE nil)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Polish crude imports by supplier, 2025 (value share %)
    Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 47.3% (2025)Crude47.3Crude imports from Norway (value share): 31.3% (2025)Norway31.3

    GulfElsewhere

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): Poland imports, crude oil (HS 2709) by partner, 2025.

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Share of LNG imports from Qatar (volume; UAE nil): 26% (= 1.6 / 6.1)
    • Saudi crude to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 3.01 Mt (= 12.04 × 3 / 12 = 3.01)
    • Qatari LNG to replace if Qatari supply stays out for 3 months: 0.4 Mt (= 1.6 × 3 / 12)
    • Saudi crude to replace at Gdansk over one quarter at the 2026 rate: 14.7 million barrels (= 160 kb/d × 92 days = 14.72 million barrels)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 25 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

    Strait of Hormuz: what passes the strait for PolandHormuzChokepoints: Strait of Hormuz

    Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Poland: what passes the strait

    Saudi Arabia supplied almost half of its crude imports in 2025.

    Poland is also counted in the European Union (as a bloc): its card on the Hormuz page.

    Route shares are modelled estimates; each figure carries its source. General research, not advice.

    Open on the Hormuz page The briefing

    Filter the questions Domain · Series · Topic
    Domain Series Topic

    Where Poland acts · 1 question

    Decision Brief · Q-027 · 1 questionBeyond CETA: what the EU relationship adds, and when exporters should commit
    Geopolitical · Geoeconomic
    How many member states still have not ratified CETA, nine years on?

    “France and Italy are among 10 member states that have not ratified CETA, 9 years after it began to apply. For exporters, today's terms keep running, but any access beyond them waits on those votes.”

    The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.
    Primary Canada Affected Belgium +8
    CanadaBelgiumBulgariaCyprusFranceGreeceHungaryIrelandItalySlovenia

    What it says about PolandActor: takes the action

    “the same 10 as not: Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland and Slovenia”

    From the brief
    Read the section: 06 · Ten member states still have not ratified CETA after nine years.

    Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, and so is each sentence under “What it says”; anything labelled “Context, not from the brief” comes from the public source named beside it. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.

    Regions in these questions Europe · North America

    ISO 3166-1 name: Poland (POL). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Published briefs

    Briefs with Poland as their subject.

    No published brief has Poland as its subject yet; the questions above name it in another role.

    Forecast register

    Forecasts on the register attached to the questions above.

    Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.

    No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.

    The forecast register

    Free downloads

    The summary sheet and the executive read are free.

    The full brief is supplied to organisations through the request form on the brief’s page: they accept its terms and confirm a work email, and it is free during the introductory period.

    General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Poland”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/pol/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • General research, not advice.
    Ask about Poland

    A question this page does not answer?

    Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.

    Is your company exposed in Poland? An exposure assessment of your own company, free. Request a free pilot

    Suggest a question The method