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Serbia

Serbia took 10.1% of its crude from Iraq in 2025 (0.24 Mt), against 37.8% in 2024; US sanctions on the refiner, NIS (US Treasury), interrupted its crude supply from Oct 2025 (NIS). Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Serbia?

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  • Region Europe · Central and Eastern Europe
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Your exposure

Serbia in our readings

Serbia is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions High
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources High
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Serbia on the outlook map

Dates for Serbia on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Serbia

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Serbia makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly Pancevo runs and crude arrivals by origin. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Serbia?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Serbia, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Serbia on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Serbia.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Serbia

Serbia took 10.1% of its crude from Iraq in 2025 (0.24 Mt), against 37.8% in 2024; US sanctions on the refiner, NIS (US Treasury), interrupted its crude supply from Oct 2025 (NIS).

Theme band Low

10.1%

Iraqi share of crude imports, 2025 (value; 10.6% by weight)

0.24

Iraqi crude, Mt, 2025

36est.

Days Pancevo was halted after US sanctions took effect (reported)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Iraqi crude fell to 0.24 of 2.22 Mt in 2025, from 1.08 Mt in 2024; Iraq is still the only Gulf supplier of Serbia's only refiner.
  • US sanctions on NIS took full effect on 9 Oct 2025, when its US licence lapsed (US Treasury; NIS); Adria deliveries stopped and Pancevo was halted for 36 days (reported). NIS supplies about 80% of Serbian fuel. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Replacement barrels are priced off a Brent that averaged US$114 in Sep 2026.

Opportunities

  • Caspian crude, which loads outside the Gulf, supplied most of it in 2025: Kazakhstan 63.3% and Azerbaijan 8.3%.
  • MOL agreed in principle in Jan 2026 to acquire Gazprom Neft's 56.15% stake in NIS, subject to US and Serbian approvals; OFAC approval was still needed in Oct 2026 (as reported). We have not assessed how the sale bears on the sanctions. Estimate from press or commentary

Uncertainties

  • Whether the lower 2025 Iraqi share (10.1%, from 37.8%) reflects the year of the sanctions or a lasting switch to Caspian crude; and whether the Iraqi crude loads at Basra (inside the Strait) or Ceyhan, which trade data do not show.
  • Whether the MOL purchase completes and sanctions on NIS are lifted, which decides whether Adria can carry any crude; the US licences for NIS's operations and for the talks were reported extended to 30 Oct 2026. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could cut Basra loadings again.
  • 30 Oct 2026End of the reported US licences for NIS's operations and for MOL's talks; OFAC approval of the purchase was still needed in Oct 2026. Status of US sanctions on NIS.
  • MonthlyPancevo runs and crude arrivals by origin.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Crude oilEnergy10.1% 2025Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value)LowHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Serbian crude imports by supplier, 2025 (value share %)
Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 10.1% (2025)Crude10.1

Gulf

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): Serbia imports, crude oil (HS 2709) by partner, 2025.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Iraqi crude to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 0.06 Mt (= 0.24 × 3 / 12 = 0.06)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 19 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

ISO 3166-1 name: Serbia (SRB). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Serbia”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/srb/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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