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New Zealand

New Zealand's direct stake is urea: Saudi Arabia supplied 55.6% of 2025 imports by value. All its fuel is imported refined, mainly from South Korea and Singapore. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about New Zealand?

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  • Region Asia-Pacific · Australia and the Pacific
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Your exposure

New Zealand in our readings

New Zealand is in 1 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand imported 46.9% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
46.9%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 52.0%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Hydro, 54.9%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 88.5% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Coal supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.002024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: diversified Built from partner data (mirror): suppliers that publish nothing are missing, so the index is a lower bound.

Value-chain positions: not on file.

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · New Zealand · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints High
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare New Zealand on the outlook map

Dates for New Zealand on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach New Zealand

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for New Zealand: no Hormuz shipping volume (tonnes or barrels) for it is on file, and the scenario cases need one.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much New Zealand makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves; spring top-dressing demand for urea is under way. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly MBIE fuel stock updates (days of cover). Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Urea import prices, against a world urea price of US$472 a tonne before the war (World Bank, Feb 2026). Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in New Zealand?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in New Zealand, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open New Zealand on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · New Zealand

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for New Zealand.

Chokepoints

Not enough open data

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz
  • Import dependence
  • Oil stocks in days
  • A headline line

Dashed underline = low confidence.

Flows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where New Zealand’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

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    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Country analysis

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch New Zealand.

    Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for New Zealand

    New Zealand's direct stake is urea: Saudi Arabia supplied 55.6% of 2025 imports by value. All its fuel is imported refined, mainly from South Korea and Singapore.

    Theme band High

    0.27

    urea from Saudi Arabia (2025)

    US$5.55bn

    refined product import bill (2025)

    65.9%

    Gulf crude inside product imports (2025, our calculation)

    55.6%

    of urea imports by value from Saudi Arabia (2025)

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • Pasture urea depends on one Gulf supplier: Saudi Arabia shipped 0.27 Mt in 2025.
    • No refinery since Marsden Point stopped refining: South Korea and Singapore supplied 43.6% and 34.4% of 2025 product imports by value.
    • Our calculation puts Gulf crude inside 65.9% of 2025 product imports.

    Opportunities

    • Gulf food importers may look for suppliers outside the region; New Zealand sold US$1.92bn of goods to GCC states in 2025, 4.1% of its exports.
    • Urea from outside the Gulf is available: China supplied 25.9% and Malaysia 15.8% of 2025 imports by value.

    Uncertainties

    • Fuel stock days were not found; only the 6 days released in Mar 2026 are known. Estimate from press or commentary
    • The embedded share assumes suppliers' 2025 crude slates; South Korea and Singapore may have cut Gulf crude after the war began.

    What to watch

    • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves; spring top-dressing demand for urea is under way.
    • MonthlyMBIE fuel stock updates (days of cover).
    • MonthlyUrea import prices, against a world urea price of US$472 a tonne before the war (World Bank, Feb 2026).

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Fertiliser (urea)Food and farming55.6% 2025Share of urea imports (by value) from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Gulf share of 2025 imports, by input (%)
    Gulf crude embedded in refined product imports (import share x supplier's Gulf crude share): 65.9% of product imports (2025) (our calculation)Gulf crude embedded…*65.90Share of urea imports (by value) from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman): 55.6% (2025)Urea55.60Share of refined product imports (HS 2710, by value) from Hormuz Gulf producers: 0.02% (2025)Refined product0.02

    GulfElsewhere

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): NZL imports, HS 310210 (urea) by partner, 2025; UN Comtrade (public API): NZL imports, HS 2710 (petroleum oils other than crude (refined products)) by partner, 2025. * Our calculation from the cited figures.

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Gulf crude embedded in refined product imports (import share x supplier's Gulf crude share): 65.9% of product imports (= sum over suppliers of (share of product imports by value, UN Comtrade HS 2710 2025 × supplier's Gulf share of crude imports): Korea 43.6% × 69.9%; Singapore 34.37% × 71.76%; Malaysia 11.22% × 53.63%; Japan 3.23% × 94%; India 2.65% × 45%; China 1.31% × 39.7% = 65.91)
    • Scenario: extra cost of replacing one quarter of Saudi urea at the April 2026 peak premium: US$25.5m (= 0.27 Mt / 4 × (850 - 472) US$/t = 67,500 t × 378 = US$25.5m)
    • Scenario: extra refined product import bill for one quarter if prices rise 15%: US$0.21bn per quarter (= 5.55 / 4 × 15% (10-20%) = 1.39 × 0.15 = 0.21 (0.14-0.28))
    • Scenario: one-quarter cost (fuel + urea) as % of GDP: 0.09% of GDP (= (0.208 + 0.0255) / 264.06 = 0.2335 / 264.06 = 0.088%)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 25 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

    ISO 3166-1 name: New Zealand (NZL). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “New Zealand”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/nzl/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • General research, not advice.
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