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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict · Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)

Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, Iran gives formal notice of withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons under its Article X, to the other parties and the UN Security Council.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
7High steady this month
Breadth7
Depth5
Duration9
Hard to substitute8
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Grossi told the Security Council that Iran must give inspectors immediate access; about 440 kg of 60% uranium, the IAEA's estimate from before June 2025, unverified since June 2025; agenda adopted with 11 votes, Russia and China against, Pakistan and Somalia abstaining [12] [13] [5]
  2. Russia, China and Niger voted against; Council action unlikely; UN sanctions reimposed in 2025; Pezeshkian would accept verification within a deal [3]
  3. Rezaei (10 Sep) said IAEA actions could push countries to leave the NPT; officials and MPs called for withdrawal (28 Sep); Kremlin does not want Iran to leave (29 Sep) [4]
  4. Austria denied AEOI head Eslami entry for the IAEA General Conference: UN travel ban; the US objected in New York to the exemption Austria sought [6]
  5. UK told the Board: in the reporting period Iran gave no access to any nuclear facilities and blocked all in-field verification [2]
  6. GOV/2026/61 adopted 23-3-8; reports the findings of 12 Jun 2025 and 10 Jun 2026 and GOV/2026/50 to the Security Council and General Assembly; quarterly reports continue [1]
  7. About 440 kg of 60% uranium before June 2025, whereabouts unclear; nuclear sites hit in a war that began 28 Feb 2026 [5]

Why it matters

On 9 Sep 2026 the IAEA Board in Vienna voted 23 to 3, with 8 abstentions, to report Iran's safeguards non-compliance to the UN Security Council. The UK told the Board that Iran had given inspectors no access to any nuclear facility in the reporting period. Some Iranian MPs and former officials want Iran to leave the NPT; the President says Iran does not seek nuclear weapons and would accept inspectors inside a deal.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: report to the Security Council on 9 Sep 2026; no access; second war since 28 Feb 2026; MPs' call of 28 Sep. Brakes: President rules out weapons and offers verification in a deal; Russia opposes an exit; Russia and China shield Iran at the Council; Guardian Council must approve any law.

Why Impact 7 Threshold case a notice, effective three months later.

The other facts on file (4)
  • General Assembly elected Austria to the UN Security Council for 2027-2028, term from 1 Jan 2027 [7] (3 Jun 2026)
  • Majlis committee drafted an NPT withdrawal bill, not scheduled for a vote by 29 Sep 2025; Guardian Council review applies [8] (29 Sep 2025)
  • Article X: withdrawal on three months' notice to the parties and the Security Council [9] (1 Jul 1968)
  • Brent settled at $94 on 9 Mar 2026, up about 50% from the start of the year, as Hormuz shipments fell after the onset of military action [11] (Mar 2026)

Where it sits

Strait of Hormuz11. Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT: High impact · possible1 · High impact · possibleStrait of HormuzAFGHANISTANUAEIRANIRAQKUWAITOMANSAUDI ARABIATHE GULFGULF OF OMAN0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of Hormuz11. Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT: High impact · possibleStrait of HormuzUAEIRANKUWAITOMANTHE GULF0300 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, Iran gives formal notice of withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons under its Article X, to the other parties and the UN Security Council.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Nuclear rulesAn exit takes effect three months after notice [9]; inspections would end with it.
  3. War riskAn exit would strengthen the case for new US or Israeli strikes.
  4. Oil and shippingHigher risk of a second Hormuz closure (Strature's view).
  5. The UNThe Security Council, with Austria on it from 2027, would face a vote Russia and China can block [3][7].

Sectors 2

  • Energy and pipelines
  • Ports and logistics

Who is exposed

Countries
Iran, Israel, United States, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Austria
Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
Straits
Strait of Hormuz

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Frozen file

    No access, no exit; the Board keeps reporting each quarter.

  2. S2

    Deal and return

    Iran lets inspectors back inside a wider deal.

  3. S3

    Exit notice

    The Majlis passes the withdrawal bill and the Guardian Council approves it, or the leadership gives notice directly.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The Director General's report before each regular quarterly Board meeting
S2An IAEA team returns to a struck site
S3The bill is put on the Majlis agenda

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves; Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)

Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it

  • F-000911.5%Forecasts: S5 Nuclear Dash under Pressure

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0009: 11.5% (23 Jul 2026) · resolves by 18 Jul 2028 · brief C-002

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 IAEA Board regular quarterly meeting, with the Director General's report on Iran [1] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves; Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [10] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  3. Jan 2027 Austria starts its Security Council term [7] Declared · Outside event

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · IRAN · strature.net

The other side

Iran's offer of verification within a deal leaves a path back. A return of inspectors would ease the risk to Gulf shipping, and Vienna would keep its role as the place where the file is handled.

Connected in Strature

Sources

13 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of UN Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2026/61). IAEA Board of Governors (hosted by Iran Watch) · 9 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. NPT Safeguards Agreement with Iran: resolution to the IAEA Board of Governors, September 2026. UK Government · 10 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. IAEA Reports Iran to UN Security Council. Arms Control Association · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Iran's NPT withdrawal debate intensifies as Kremlin warns against it. Kurdistan24 · 29 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. IAEA urges Iran to re-engage as West seeks UN referral. Kuwait Times · 7 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. US blocks Iran nuclear chief from attending key Vienna conference. Al Jazeera · 14 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. UN / Security Council members election. United Nations (UNifeed) · 3 Jun 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Iran, Parliament takes first steps for NPT withdrawal. Adnkronos · 29 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Article X. United Nations · 1 Jul 1968 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Strature forecast register (F-0074, F-0009). Strature · 25 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2026. U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2026-03 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Iran (Non-proliferation): Briefing (What's in Blue). Security Council Report · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  13. IAEA urges Iran to grant nuclear inspectors immediate access (Anadolu). Yeni Şafak · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks