4 questions answered in 3 published briefs · Updated 1 Oct 2026
“The source's central judgement on Iran's external position was that the leading powers now manage Iran rather than balance it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected United States of America, China, Russian Federation
“A bank, logistics firm or component maker with Chinese counterparties inherits whatever those counterparties do with Russia and Iran.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China Affected Russian Federation, Islamic Republic of Iran
“The International Navigating Conditions exclude two areas that together cover every route through the Passage.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Greenland, Russian Federation
“The Joint War Committee's current listed areas, circular JWLA-035 of 16 September 2026, contain no Arctic, Canadian, Baffin, Beaufort, Barents, Bering or polar entry.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Russian Federation
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Arctic · East Asia · Europe · Middle East · North America
No published brief has Russian Federation as its subject yet; the questions above name it as affected.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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The full brief goes to organisations who accept the terms and whose order is approved; there is no charge while prices are not published.
C 002 · Edition 1.0
C 003 · Edition 1.0
T 002 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.