Not on the published record: 6 of the 35 full transits in 2025 were commercial, and Canada publishes no Arctic icebreaking fee, so the Coast Guard sells no Arctic escort slot.
Archive edition. Researched 3 September 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 30 September 2026. Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
Both are Edition 1.0, with their printed notices intact.
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General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice, not tailored to any reader, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves; to the fullest extent permitted by law Strature accepts no liability (otherwise capped at the fee paid). Full terms in the full brief.
PDF · 4 pages · 134 KB · Edition 1.0
This is general research on public information, published for general circulation to purchasers. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, is not tailored to any reader, and does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security or loan; options to consider are illustrations, not instructions. Every probability and forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, and may prove wrong; the brief is provided "as is", without warranty. To the fullest extent permitted by law Strature and its principal accept no liability of any kind; where a court will not allow that, liability is limited to the fee paid, and indirect or consequential loss is excluded. Strature and its principal hold no position in, and receive no payment from, any company or fund named in this brief. AI-assisted research, reviewed by AI, not by a lawyer; internal use only; Ontario law. Full terms in the full brief.
Each exhibit is drawn from the edition’s own data, with its source and credit as printed. Its data can be downloaded as CSV.
1 Jan 2004 to 1 Jan 2035
1 further exhibit stays in the full brief: its source licence does not allow redistribution.
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
No forecast is registered with this edition.
The Joint War Committee issued circular JWLA-035, amending the Black Sea area; it supersedes JWLA-034 (29 Jul 2026), the circular the source edition read. JWLA-035 contains no Arctic entry of any kind, and Russia remains listed as a country.
Joint War Committee, JWLA-035, 16 Sep 2026, read 30 Sep 2026
The Navigating Limits Sub-Committee page, which carries no date, still states that its area guidance is under review and will be re-issued later in the year; it does not say which year. The Area 1 and Area 5 sheets still carry their last-update dates of 5 Oct 2004 and 17 Oct 2006.
Lloyd's Market Association, read 30 Sep 2026
Unchanged on re-reading: C$3,818.61 per transit for 1 Dec 2025 to 30 Nov 2026 in three ice zones, none in the Arctic; 40 commercial escorts in the Coast Guard's 2025 Arctic season; SOR/2025-275 Part 5 in force since 31 Mar 2026.
Canadian Coast Guard; Justice Laws; Transport Canada; read 30 Sep 2026
Correction. The publisher's route table lists three composite courses beside its seven route groups, and together they sum to its total of 465. The source edition said the route groups summed to 462 with a three-transit gap in the publisher's arithmetic.
Robert Headland and colleagues, Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, infosheet revised 1 Nov 2025, re-read 30 Sep 2026
Correction. The publisher's per-season text summaries sum to its stated 465, and its severe-ice and COVID annotations for 2018, 2020 and 2021 are in the infosheet's text. The source edition said the yearly table summed to 466 and that the annotations were in a graphic only.
Robert Headland and colleagues, Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, infosheet re-read 30 Sep 2026
The 2026 navigation season is not in this edition's data. The infosheet is revised after each season, about 1 November; the 2026 count is NOT DISCLOSED until then.
Robert Headland and colleagues, Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, infosheet re-read 30 Sep 2026
Two vantage dates are on the source's record: 3 Sep 2026 on both source editions and 4 Sep 2026 in its build report. Both are printed; this edition uses 3 Sep 2026 as the research date.
Source edition and its build report
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“Not on the published record: 6 of the 35 full transits in 2025 were commercial, and Canada publishes no Arctic icebreaking fee, so the Coast Guard sells no Arctic escort slot.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“In the 2025 season 35 ships completed a full transit: 19 yachts or other private vessels, 10 passenger voyages and 6 in the commercial category.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The publisher states that 56 of its 465 transits conveyed commercial cargo or fuel, and that 48 of those 56 were made by Wagenborg vessels.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“PAME's count is overwhelmingly destination traffic: community resupply, mine supply, fishing and cruise segments that arrive and leave the way they came. Its growth says little about ocean-to-ocean transit.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Routes 1 and 2 carried 24 of 465 transits; the two routes through the 6.4-metre Simpson Strait carried 188.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“On measured ice charts the northern route lost up to 14 weeks from 2007 to 2021.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“None of the sources read offers a scheduled, contractually guaranteed escort slot at any price; privately chartered ice support was not examined.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The International Navigating Conditions exclude two areas that together cover every route through the Passage.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Greenland, Russian Federation
“The Joint War Committee's current listed areas, circular JWLA-035 of 16 September 2026, contain no Arctic, Canadian, Baffin, Beaufort, Barents, Bering or polar entry.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Russian Federation
“A 2017 review for the UK Government Office for Science describes the Passage as a route from the US East Coast to Asia, and the Northern Sea Route as the Europe to Asia route.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“On the record read here, the dispute has never been joined over a merchant hull.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“In the Nunavut Settlement Area, the Nunavut Agreement governs what is built and operated; ship movements not tied to a project are outside its screening.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The Vessel Traffic Services Zones Regulations, SOR/2025-275, published in the Canada Gazette on 31 December 2025, came into force on 31 March 2026 and consolidate three regimes into one.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Ships with protected tanks may continue until 1 July 2029, and a coastal state may waive the rule for its own-flag ships in its own waters until the same date.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“This brief does not hold the 2026 season.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
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