Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a month
The test In at least one calendar month from November 2026 to October 2027, Poland's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia, as recorded in Eurostat's monthly data, fall below 250 thousand tonnes, about a quarter of the 2025 monthly average of 995 thousand tonnes.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Houthis claim attacks on Yanbu, Rabigh and East-West pumping stations; two missiles destroyed; hits not confirmed [7]
- Saudi share 11,939 of 25,194 kt in 2025 and 6,395 of 13,418 kt in Jan-Jul 2026 (Strature sums); lowest month since Jan 2023 604.9 kt (May 2026); July 2026 1,227.0 kt [2]
- Orlen expected to receive at least four October-loading Saudi cargoes from Sidi Kerir; Aramco offering extra cargoes for late Oct and mid-Nov [4]
- Poland imported 13,472.7 of 25,522.8 thousand tonnes of crude from Saudi Arabia in 2024; 7,425.2 from Norway [1]
- East-West pipeline back at 5.8 mb/d of 7 mb/d capacity, minister says [6]
- Brent US$114 in Sep 2026; EIA expects US$105 in 4Q26 and US$84 in 2027 [8]
Why it matters
Saudi Arabia is Poland's largest crude supplier: 13.5 of 25.5 million tonnes in 2024, and 47.7% of imports in January-July 2026. In September drone attacks shut the pipeline that carries Saudi crude to the Red Sea, and four Aramco cargoes for Orlen were reported lost. Flows came back within weeks. The risk is a month in which almost no Saudi crude reaches Poland.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the 11 Sep East-West shutdown, four Aramco cargoes for Orlen reported lost, attacks of 13 and 24 Oct. Brakes: pipeline back at 5.8 mb/d by 6 Oct, Sidi Kerir cargoes and extra Aramco offers.
Why Impact 3 Key price Brent, US$114 in Sep 2026. Threshold case about 750 kt missing in one month.
Where it sits
How it spreads
In at least one calendar month from November 2026 to October 2027, Poland's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia, as recorded in Eurostat's monthly data, fall below 250 thousand tonnes, about a quarter of the 2025 monthly average of 995 thousand tonnes.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Poland's fuel supplyOrlen gets about 40% of its purchases from Aramco (Reuters) [3][4], about half by Bloomberg's account [5]; in September Orlen's chief executive said it had secured 16 alternative cargoes [5].
- Lithuania and CzechiaOrlen also runs refineries in Lithuania and Czechia; Lithuania's Butinge terminal also takes Saudi crude.
- Fuel pricesPoland imports about a third of its fuels (Bloomberg) [5]; a crude shortfall adds to a tight diesel market.
Goods 2
Sectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Straits 1
Countries 5
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Poland, Lithuania, Saudi Arabia
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Crude oil, Refined fuels
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Repaired route
The East-West line runs near capacity and Aramco makes up September's missed volumes.
- S2
A second Saudi stop
Drone or missile hits on the East-West line or Yanbu close it again for weeks.
- S3
Renewed Gulf war
A strike on Iran shuts Hormuz again while the Red Sea route is under attack.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Eurostat September and October figures above 600 kt |
| S2 | A new Saudi shutdown or cancelled European cargoes |
| S3 | F-0074 resolves on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Aramco's extra cargoes for Europe for mid-November delivery, as reported [4] Tentative · Outside event
- 6 Nov 2026 End of Q-023's six-week window for Saudi crude reaching buyers [11] Declared · Strature date
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [10] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, how much Saudi crude can reach buyers, and for how long?
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- Crude oil
- Refined fuels
- Strait of Hormuz
- Poland
- Saudi Arabia
- Lithuania
- Czech Republic
- European Union
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: A re-closure cuts Gulf loadings of Saudi crude [10].
- The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal Driven by: The Houthis target Yanbu and Saudi shipping [7][12].
- Attacks halt Kazakhstan's main Black Sea oil terminal for a week or more Shares a channel: Orlen buys Kazakh CPC Blend as replacement crude [3].
- IEA members agree a second emergency oil stock release Shares a channel: Replacement cargoes come from the same spot crude market.
Sources
11 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Oil and petroleum products imports, annual data (nrg_ti_oil), PL from SA, NO and TOTAL, 2024. Eurostat · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Oil and petroleum products imports, monthly data (nrg_ti_oilm), PL from SA, NO and TOTAL, Jan 2023-Jul 2026. Eurostat · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Poland's Orlen rushes to find alternatives to Saudi oil supply, traders say (Reuters). Al-Monitor · 15 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Saudi Arabia offers Europe more crude, traders say, as Orlen gets 4 October cargoes (Reuters). Zawya · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Orlen CEO seeks to diversify supplies as strikes halt Saudi oil (Bloomberg). Energy Connects · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Saudi Arabia says East-West pipeline pumping 5.8 million bpd. Al Jazeera · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Yemen's Houthi rebels claim new attacks on oil facilities and airports across Saudi Arabia (Reuters). France 24 · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026: Global oil markets. US EIA · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Forecast register (F-0074, brief S-001) and World risk “The Strait of Hormuz shuts again”. Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Q-023 and T-003 brief pages; Poland gulf-war-hormuz notes. Strature · 1 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- How shipping insurance rates are rising as Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb shut down. Al Jazeera · 23 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks