Bangladesh sheds 2,000 MW of power at peak again
The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the state power board or the grid operator reports, or two national news outlets report, nationwide load-shedding of 2,000 MW or more at the daily peak on at least five days.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
Why it matters
Bangladesh's power board planned for summer 2026 with about 2,000 MW of load-shedding at peak, because gas for power plants was short. A Maheshkhali LNG terminal was damaged in July, and QatarEnergy's force majeure on deliveries to Bangladesh was extended to the end of November (Reuters, reported by OilPrice.com, 28 Sep 2026). Summer 2027 could bring the same gap.
Why Likelihood 4 Brakes: idle coal and oil capacity; low winter demand; spot cargoes; diesel help from India. Not 6: the one leaning source is the PDB's 2026 plan; no 2026 actual and no 2027 source is cited.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: 2,000 MW shed at peak on five days.
The other facts on file (9)
- PDB expected summer 2026 peak demand of 18,500 MW and about 2,000 MW load-shedding at peak; about 1,000 MW shed on 6 Apr at 14,800 MW demand [1] (7 Apr 2026)
- Power sector gas about 900 mmcfd against at least 1,200 needed; national supply 2,650 against 3,825 mmcfd; about 60% of 12,204 MW gas capacity could be idle [1] (7 Apr 2026)
- Coal 6,203 MW plus 1,496 MW contracted from India; furnace oil 5,634 MW; renewables 1,059 MW; coal plants ran at 45% the year before (M Shamsul Alam, 7 Apr 2026) [1] (7 Apr 2026)
- Two floating LNG terminals sent out about 410 of 1,100 mmcfd on 12 Aug 2026 after a July disruption [2] (12 Aug 2026)
- QatarEnergy, OQ Trading and Excelerate sent force majeure notices in March 2026 [4] (9 Mar 2026)
- Industrial self-generated power cost BDT 31.50 a unit (Petrobangla) [5] (26 May 2025)
- Gas about 48.5% of net generation in FY2023-24 [8] (2024)
- Gas about 43% of installed capacity in 2025 (low-confidence source) [11] (2025)
- Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026), renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026 [6] (21 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the state power board or the grid operator reports, or two national news outlets report, nationwide load-shedding of 2,000 MW or more at the daily peak on at least five days.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- FactoriesIndustry falls back on own generators at higher cost.
- Fuel imports and subsidiesMore furnace oil and diesel for peaking.
- HouseholdsTwo to three hours a day without power at the threshold.
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Bangladesh
- Sectors
- Apparel, Manufacturing, Fertiliser, Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- LNG, Furnace oil, Diesel
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
- Companies
- Petrobangla, BPDB
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Gas comes back
Qatari cargoes resume and the terminals run near capacity, so the peak is met.
- S2
Oil and coal bridge
Coal and furnace-oil plants run harder and shedding stays near 1,000 MW.
- S3
2026 again, or worse
Gas stays short and summer demand passes 18,000 MW, so 2,000 MW or more is shed.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | End of force majeure after 30 Nov 2026 |
| S2 | Coal plant use in April 2027 |
| S3 | PDB summer 2027 plan |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it Strature forecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [6] Declared · Strature date
- 30 Nov 2026 QatarEnergy force majeure notice runs to end of November [10] Tentative · Outside event
- Apr 2027 Summer peak season begins [1] Tentative · Window
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date
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The other side
The gap makes the case for more solar, fuller use of coal plants and more domestic gas. Suppliers of rooftop solar, batteries and gas drilling services can meet it.
Connected in Strature
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- LNG
- Strait of Hormuz
- Bangladesh
- Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026 Driven by: Less LNG for power.
- Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting Shares a channel: Gas taken from urea plants.
- Bangladesh has no new IMF programme by the end of June 2027 Shares a channel: Fuel subsidies.
- Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season Shares a channel: Asian power shortfalls in 2027.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- PDB's summer power plan: 60% capacity of gas plants to stay unutilised. The Daily Star · 7 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Dhaka turns to Qatar to ease energy crisis. Daily New Nation · 20 Aug 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- QatarEnergy extends LNG force majeure to November, report says. Bonik Barta · 1 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- LNG suppliers suspend long-term contracts, pushing Bangladesh into volatile spot market. The Business Standard · 9 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Gas supply to industries has increased: Petrobangla. Bonik Barta · 26 May 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Strature forecast register, row F-0074. Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Bangladesh Economic Review 2024, Chapter 10: Power and Energy. Finance Division, Ministry of Finance · 2024 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure as Hormuz Crisis Drags On (citing Reuters). OilPrice.com · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Coal overtakes gas in power generation. The Daily Star · 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 6 to 4 · All risks