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World risk · Energy and resources · Food, climate & health

Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the state power utility or the Ministry of Industry and Trade announces, or two national news outlets report, rotating power cuts in northern Vietnam because supply falls short of demand, on at least three days, affecting customers in two or more provinces.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth3
Depth2
Duration3
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 5 to 4.
  2. NOAA: strong-to-very-strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 [4]
  3. Ministry projects 2027 shortfall of about 4,256 MW and 2.9bn kWh, 20.7bn kWh in 2028; north most vulnerable; 10 of 43 major transmission projects under construction [1]
  4. Stopgaps proposed: 2,800 MW public rooftop solar by June 2027; 3,000-5,000 MW industrial rooftop solar with batteries; 2-3 GW batteries; about 1 GW new generation in 2027 [1]
  5. WMO: El Niño to persist through February 2027 [5]

Why it matters

Vietnam's industry ministry projects a 2027 shortfall of about 4,256 MW of capacity and 2.9bn kWh, with the north most at risk. A strong El Niño is likely through early 2027, cutting hydropower. In May 2026 a Hanoi resident told Reuters of three cuts in one night in a heatwave; EVN said no cuts were planned. In 2023 rolling cuts in the north cost about US$1.4bn, the World Bank estimated.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the ministry's projected 2027 shortfall of about 4,256 MW and 2.9bn kWh; a strong El Niño through early 2027; faster demand growth in an extreme dry season; slow plant and grid delivery. Brakes: rooftop solar and battery stopgaps; EVN's saving drive; new plant.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: rotating cuts on three days in two northern provinces.

The other facts on file (5)
  • Daily demand records since 23 May 2026; a Hanoi resident told Reuters of three cuts in one night; EVN said on Facebook no cuts were planned [2] (27 May 2026)
  • Base demand growth about 8.5%, up to 14.1% in an extreme dry season; EVN saving targets 3% for 2026, 10% in April-July [3] (12 May 2026)
  • World Bank: May-June 2023 outages cost about US$1.4bn [6] (12 Aug 2023)
  • Q1 2026 output mix: coal 52.8%, hydro 20.9%, renewables 15.4%, gas 7%, imports 3.8% [7] (11 Apr 2026)
  • Coal imports 65.4 Mt in 2025 [8] (2025)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the state power utility or the Ministry of Industry and Trade announces, or two national news outlets report, rotating power cuts in northern Vietnam because supply falls short of demand, on at least three days, affecting customers in two or more provinces.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. FactoriesRolling cuts in 2023 badly affected northern factories [6].
  3. Growth targetPower supply tied to the double-digit growth goal.
  4. Fuel importsMore coal and oil-fired peaking when fuel is already tight.

Sectors 1

  • Technology

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Vietnam
Sectors
Technology
Goods
Electronics, Coal
Companies
EVN

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Solar bridge

    Rooftop solar, batteries and new plant arrive before the peak and supply holds.

  2. S2

    Evening squeeze

    Short local cuts at the evening peak, without a rotating schedule.

  3. S3

    2023 again

    Low reservoirs and heat force rotating cuts across northern provinces.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Rooftop solar installed by June 2027
S2Daily demand records in May 2027
S3Hydropower reservoir levels in April 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jan 2027 Strong El Niño likely to persist to March [4] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Apr 2027 Dry-season peak months begin (to July) [3] Tentative · Window
  3. 30 Jun 2027 Target for 2,800 MW of public rooftop solar [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · VIETNAM · strature.net

The other side

The gap is driving fast rooftop solar and battery orders, which suppliers of panels, batteries and grid equipment can serve. A firmer price signal, which experts say investors need, would draw new generation.

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Vietnam faces power shortage risk as AI, data centres and rail drive demand. Asia News Network (Viet Nam News) · 22 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. Heatwave strain on Vietnam power grid could get worse, industry ministry says (Reuters). WHBL · 27 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. Viet Nam prepares contingency plans for 2026 dry-season power shortages. Viet Nam News · 12 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. El Nino set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027. World Meteorological Organization · 3 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Power crisis cost Vietnam $1.4b: WB (AFP). Manila Times · 12 Aug 2023 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. EVN ramps up measures to ensure stable power supply during peak dry season. Viet Nam News · 11 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  8. Statistics of main imports by month, December 2025 (Table 15B) (preliminary). General Department of Customs (Ministry of Finance), via AsemConnect Vietnam · 2026-01 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 23 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 5 to 4 · All risks