A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply
The test Between 25 Oct 2026 and 30 Apr 2027, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño at strong strength (a three-month relative Oceanic Niño Index of +1.5°C or more, CPC's strong band) for at least one season from October-December 2026 to January-March 2027.
Under way · Confidence: high · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ Since 3 Sep 2026: WMO forecast a very strong El Niño [2]; NOAA on 8 Oct 2026 kept a strong-to-very strong event likely through Jan-Mar 2027 [1].
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- CPC RONI +1.69°C for Jul-Sep 2026 (strong band +1.5°C to below +2.0°C); +1.36°C for Jun-Aug [12]
- El Niño Advisory; Niño-3.4 +2.1°C; strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through JFM 2027 (above 83%) [1]
- Historic event (RONI +2.5°C or more): 54% SON, 83% OND, 70% NDJ [1]
- FAO cereal index +17.2% y/y in September; palm oil up a fourth month on dry Southeast Asian weather [5]
- 2026 world cereal production forecast 2,979 Mt, 2.1% below the 2025 record [6]
- FEWS NET: high concern for southern Africa (Oct 2026-Mar 2027) and East Africa [3]
Show 3 earlier changes
Why it matters
El Niño is here and still strengthening: NOAA's 8 October 2026 discussion keeps an El Niño Advisory, Niño-3.4 at +2.1°C over the past month and a strong-to-very strong event likely through January-March 2027. India's monsoon ended at 87% of normal and dry weather in Southeast Asia is lifting palm oil prices. The question is how hard harvests are hit.
Why Likelihood 9 Not 10: the three-month RONI for the scored seasons is not yet published.
Why Impact 6 South and Southeast Asia, southern and East Africa and Central America; estimate: FAO cereals up 17.2% on a year is a move already in prices on the scoring date, and El Niño's share of it is not measured, so no cited figure sizes the event's own effect; impacts into 2027 over two harvests.
The other facts on file (1)
- Panama Canal: on 20 Aug the canal authority tied water-saving cuts to El Niño (nine Neopanamax slots, a 47.5 ft draft planned from 1 Oct); it dropped the October draft cut on 4 Sep [7] (20 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 25 Oct 2026 and 30 Apr 2027, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño at strong strength (a three-month relative Oceanic Niño Index of +1.5°C or more, CPC's strong band) for at least one season from October-December 2026 to January-March 2027.
Under way nowChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaHigher world grain and oilseed prices; the 2026 wheat fall (-10.9%) [8] is not tied to El Niño.
- Food supply and pricesShort rice, palm oil, sugar and maize harvests in the 2026-27 seasons lift world prices [3][5].
- Trade policyShort crops bring export restrictions; Sri Lanka plans for possible Indian curbs.
- ShippingLow water in the Panama Canal watershed cuts slots and draft.
- EnergyDrought cuts rain-fed hydropower (Strature's view); the B50 biodiesel blend takes more Indonesian palm oil at home [10].
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Strong, then fades
The event peaks near end-2026 and decays by spring, as WMO expects; harvest losses stay regional.
- S2
Historic event
Three-month RONI passes +2.5°C in Oct-Dec; southern Africa's maize harvest fails and Asian rice output falls further.
- S3
Weaker than forecast
Niño-3.4 falls back below +1.5°C before December.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | NOAA discussions of 12 Nov and Dec 2026 |
| S2 | FEWS NET southern Africa updates |
| S2 | FAO index of 6 Nov 2026 |
| S3 | a NOAA discussion without the strong-event wording |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Oct 2026 Southern Africa rainy season Oct 2026-Mar 2027 under below-average forecast [3] Tentative · Window
- 6 Nov 2026 FAO Food Price Index for October [5] Declared · Outside event
- 12 Nov 2026 NOAA CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion [1] Declared · Outside event
- 4 Dec 2026 Statistics Canada survey-based 2026 crop estimates [8] Declared · Outside event
- Mar 2027 End of NOAA's strong-event window (Jan-Mar 2027) [1] Tentative · Window
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The other side
Exporters outside the dry belts gain on price; Canada's wheat and canola growers sell into a market where FAO's cereal index was up 17.2% on a year [5]. Early warnings are earlier this time, giving governments time to buy and store.
Connected in Strature
- Rice
- Wheat
- India
- Indonesia
- Australia
- Zimbabwe
- Mozambique
- Malawi
- Ethiopia
- Panama
- Sri Lanka
- Canada
- World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150 Drives: El Niño lifts cereal, oil and sugar prices (FAO, 2 Oct 2026).
- India, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year Drives: Sri Lanka plans for Indian export curbs because of El Niño (reported 27 Aug 2026).
- El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again Drives: The canal authority ties its water measures to El Niño (20 Aug 2026).
- India's war-year subsidies push its deficit above the 4.3% target Shares a channel: Indian farm output and subsidies; the monsoon at 87% of normal.
Sources
11 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (ENSO diagnostic discussion). NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027. World Meteorological Organization · 3 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- El Niño 2026-2027 (topic page). FEWS NET · 2026-10 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Salient features of the southwest monsoon 2026. India Meteorological Department · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- FAO Food Price Index (September 2026 release). Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Panama Canal adopts additional measures to address reduced precipitation in the Canal watershed. Panama Canal Authority · 20 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Model-based principal field crop estimates, August 2026. Statistics Canada · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- IPOSS: domestic demand to reshape Indonesia's palm oil industry as B50 tightens national CPO supply. InfoSAWIT · 17 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), three-month seasons (table). NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 2026-10 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Advisory to Shipping A-36-2026: Increase in the number of Neopanamax booking slots, draft adjustment and Transit Reservation System. Panama Canal Authority · 28 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks