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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints · Food, climate & health

El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again

The test The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) sets the maximum authorised draft at the Neopanamax locks below 14.63 m (48.0 ft) at any time from 26 Oct 2026 to 31 Jul 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth6
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. The ACP said the water deficit continues; September transits 979, 32.63 a day. [6]
  2. Niño-3.4 at +2.1 C; strong to very strong El Niño likely through Jan-Mar 2027 (greater than an 83% chance). [7]
  3. US Gulf soybeans averaged US$524 a tonne in Sep 2026. [11]
  4. All 24 China-bound soybean vessels inspected at Mississippi Gulf terminals 4-24 Sep (about 1.6 Mt) headed for the Cape of Good Hope. [8]
  5. A-36-2026 set the draft at 14.94 m (49.0 ft) and raised Neopanamax slots from nine to ten from 15 Oct, 33 a day in all. [5]
  6. On 4 Sep the ACP kept 48.0 ft and dropped the October cut; Gatun Lake about 84 ft. [2]

Why it matters

The canal tightened in August, then eased: on 28 Sep 2026 it raised the Neopanamax draft to 49.0 ft and added a daily slot, after September rain the ACP later called close to average. But the watershed still runs a deficit and NOAA expects a strong to very strong El Niño through January-March 2027, Panama's dry season. New cuts would slow US Gulf grain and LNG to Asia and push ships round Africa.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: strong El Niño through Jan-Mar 2027; the watershed deficit continues; demand at 40-41 transits a day. Brakes: draft raised to 49.0 ft on 28 Sep after near-average September rain; water-saving measures.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case a draft just under 48 ft for some weeks. One route; closest proxy about US$3.6bn of soybeans over Jan-Mar 2027 at US$524/t.

The other facts on file (4)
  • On 20 Aug 2026 the ACP set a 48.0 ft Neopanamax draft from 2 Sep (postponed from 26 Aug) and 47.5 ft from 1 Oct (postponed from 3 Sep). [1] (20 Aug 2026)
  • May-August rainfall 34% below average, inflows 44% below; over 70% of canal cargo starts or ends in the US (as reported). [4] (24 Aug 2026)
  • By Oct 2023 the Neopanamax draft was 44 ft; October 2023 rain was 41% below normal. [9] (31 Oct 2023)
  • FY2024 deep-draft transits fell 21% to 9,944; revenue nearly PAB 4.99bn. [10] (25 Oct 2024)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) sets the maximum authorised draft at the Neopanamax locks below 14.63 m (48.0 ft) at any time from 26 Oct 2026 to 31 Jul 2027.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaCanada's Asian exports leave mainly from Pacific ports (Strature's view); no sourced loss.
  2. US exports to AsiaOver 70% of canal cargo starts or ends in the US, as reported [4]; Gulf soybeans to China already go round Africa [8].
  3. LNG and LPGFour LNG slots a week are kept [5]; a deeper cut makes the long route more likely (Strature's view).
  4. Freight costsThe Cape or Suez adds distance and fuel; Suez is itself at risk.
  5. Panama's budgetCanal revenue was nearly PAB 4.99bn in FY2024 [10]; fewer transits cut tonnage; surcharges and auctions cushioned revenue in 2024 [10].

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Ports and logistics
  • Agriculture and food

Countries 4

Who is exposed

Countries
United States, Panama, China, Japan
Sectors
Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food, Energy and pipelines
Goods
LNG

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Enough water

    Late-season rain and saving measures keep the draft at 48 ft or more through the dry season.

  2. S2

    A dry-season trim

    The ACP cuts to 47.5 or 47 ft for weeks in early 2027, as it nearly did in October 2026.

  3. S3

    A 2023-style squeeze

    Drafts fall toward 44 ft and slots toward 2023-24 levels.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No draft advisory before February 2027
S2A new advisory naming a lower draft, or Neopanamax slots back to nine
S3NOAA's historic-event outcome and Gatun Lake below its 2026 low

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 ACP monthly operations summary for October expected early November [6] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 12 Nov 2026 NOAA next ENSO diagnostic discussion [7] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. Jan 2027 NOAA strong El Niño window, January-March 2027 [7] Declared · Window
  4. 31 Jul 2027 Scored window ends Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

West Coast ports and US rail could gain cargo that skips the canal, as reported [4]. Canada's Pacific ports offer Asian buyers grain and LNG with no canal or strait on the route (Strature's view). Panama's Río Indio reservoir, a US$1.6bn project, would add water for future droughts, as reported [3].

Connected in Strature

Sources

11 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Panama Canal adopts additional measures to address reduced precipitation in the Canal watershed. Panama Canal Authority · 20 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Panama Canal pushes back planned draft cut for big ships. The Maritime Executive · 5 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Panama Canal scraps planned October draft cut, for now. gCaptain · 4 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Panama Canal new capacity cuts put US ports on notice. FreightWaves · 24 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Advisory to Shipping A-36-2026: Increase in the number of Neopanamax booking slots, draft adjustment and Transit Reservation System. Panama Canal Authority · 28 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Advisory to Shipping A-38-2026: Monthly Canal Operations Summary, September 2026. Panama Canal Authority · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. ENSO: diagnostic discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Grain Transportation Report, 1 Oct 2026. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service · 1 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Panama Canal plans to cut transits by 40% due to ongoing drought. The Maritime Executive · 31 Oct 2023 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Panama Canal presents financial results for FY24. Panama Canal Authority · 25 Oct 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Pink Sheet, October 2026 (Soybeans, US, f.o.b. US Gulf). World Bank · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks