India tightens cooking-gas rationing again
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the Government of India or its oil marketing companies, on its direction, order a national tightening of LPG supply beyond the rules in force on 25 Oct 2026: a household refill gap longer than 25 days, or packed commercial LPG cut below its pre-crisis allocation.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Middle East LPG shipments 670 kb/d in September 2026 against 1.5 mb/d pre-war; Hormuz oil flows 10.9 mb/d [2]
- LPG consumption 2.64 Mt in September 2026, down 9.15% year on year [6]
- 32.67 crore active domestic LPG customers and 10.57 crore PMUY connections on 1 Oct 2026 [5]
- Rural refill gap cut from 45 to 25 days, in line with urban, on 7 Sep 2026 [4]
- The 25-day urban and 45-day rural refill gaps were prescribed in March 2026 [11]
Why it matters
India rationed cooking gas from March 2026, when the Gulf war cut the route that carried about 90% of its LPG imports. It has eased step by step since June, but households still wait 25 days between refills and Middle East LPG shipments remain below half their pre-war level. If Hormuz traffic falls back, New Delhi might have to tighten again for some 327 million household connections.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: Middle East LPG shipments below half of pre-war; thin stock cover. Brakes: easing since June; commercial curbs removed 25 Jun; the rural refill gap cut to 25 days on 7 Sep; home LPG output held at 40,000 t/day or more; US LPG purchases. Other brakes: piped-gas switching.
Why Impact 6 Threshold case: a national household refill gap longer than 25 days for some months.
The other facts on file (3)
- About 90% of India's LPG imports and 45% of its crude imports passed Hormuz before early March 2026; India is the second-largest LPG importer; IEA estimates stock cover as low as seven days [1] (5 Jun 2026)
- Packed commercial LPG curbs removed 25 Jun 2026; bulk LPG at 50% of pre-crisis use; home LPG production floor 40,000 t/day [3] (26 Jun 2026)
- State oil retailers lost Rs 74,781 crore to 30 Jun 2026 selling fuel and LPG below cost; no dry-outs March-June [7] (2 Jul 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the Government of India or its oil marketing companies, on its direction, order a national tightening of LPG supply beyond the rules in force on 25 Oct 2026: a household refill gap longer than 25 days, or packed commercial LPG cut below its pre-crisis allocation.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo direct Canadian channel sourced.
- HouseholdsA longer refill gap for 326.7 million connections [5] lands first on large families, who use a cylinder fastest (Strature's view).
- Restaurants and small industryA cut to packed commercial LPG would repeat the curbs of March to June.
- The budgetLPG is sold below cost; scarcity raises the state's losses.
- PetrochemicalsRefinery C3/C4 streams diverted to LPG at the expense of feedstock, as in the first round [3].
Goods 2
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Agriculture and food
Straits 1
Countries 5
Who is exposed
- Countries
- India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, United States
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Agriculture and food
- Goods
- Refined fuels, Crude oil
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Slow normal
Gulf LPG cargoes keep recovering and the 25-day rule is lifted in 2027.
- S2
Winter pinch
Cold-season demand and slow Gulf cargoes bring a new commercial cut but no new household limit.
- S3
Second closure
Hormuz flows halve again after renewed strikes on Iran, and the household gap is lengthened.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | PPAC LPG consumption back above its year-earlier level |
| S2 | A Petroleum Ministry order on bulk or packed commercial LPG before March 2027 |
| S3 | IEA monthly Hormuz flows fall back below 10 mb/d |
| S3 | Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 IEA Oil Market Report, November (Hormuz flows, Gulf LPG) [2] Tentative · Outside event
- Nov 2026 PPAC preliminary October consumption data [6] Tentative · Outside event
- 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves [8] Declared · Strature date
- 31 Dec 2026 End of the one-year US LPG supply deal for 2026 (end of 2026; no end date published) [1] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
The crisis is speeding India's move to piped gas and its first large US LPG purchases. Exporters outside the Gulf, the US first, gain a large, lasting buyer.
Connected in Strature
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Refined fuels
- Crude oil
- Strait of Hormuz
- India
- Qatar
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates
- United States
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: A second halving of Hormuz flows is the main trigger for new curbs [2].
- India's war-year subsidies push its deficit above the 4.3% target Drives: LPG is sold below cost, so scarcity adds to the losses the budget carries [7].
- Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026 Shares a channel: The same Gulf gas cut fell on India's piped gas and fertiliser plants.
- India caps or halts diesel and jet fuel exports to protect its home market Shares a channel: Both are home-supply orders in the same crisis.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- India's energy security at a crossroads: the Hormuz crisis and an opportunity for US-India cooperation. Atlantic Council EnergySource · 5 Jun 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Govt restores commercial LPG supplies to pre-crisis levels. Outlook India · 26 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Centre allows rural LPG users to book refills every 25 days (IANS). Telangana Today · 7 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- PPAC home page: active domestic LPG customers and PMUY connections as on 01.10.2026. Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Fuel demand, September 2026 (PPAC preliminary data). UNI · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Oil firms lost nearly Rs 75,000 cr on fuel sales between Apr-June amid West Asia crisis: Hardeep Puri. The Tribune (ANI) · 2 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Strature forecast register, F-0074 (S-001). Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Relief for rural LPG users as Centre cuts refill booking gap from 45 to 25 days. Onmanorama · 7 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks