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World risk · Energy and resources · Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)

Spain's fuel tax relief runs out in the gap between governments

The test Spain's Iran-war fuel tax cut and professional diesel aid lapse on 31 Dec 2026, or a later replacement lapses, before 31 Mar 2027 with no decree-law to replace them, and Spain's average diesel pump price in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin rises 10% or more within four weeks of the lapse.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 14 Oct 2026: INE's September CPI put diesel and petrol prices far enough above a year earlier to trip the RDL 25/2026 safeguard, so at least 13 cents a litre lapses at once on 31 Dec.

Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth4
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 4 to 5; Likelihood trend to up.
  2. Caretaker government limited to ordinary business save duly justified urgent cases; may not present a budget bill [9]
  3. Spain diesel EUR1,503.50 per 1,000 l on 29 Jun to EUR1,722.27 on 27 Jul 2026 (+14.6%) [7]
  4. Spain diesel EUR1,889.22 per 1,000 l, week of 19 Oct 2026; EUR1,396.85 on 20 Oct 2025; 2026 high EUR1,934.43 on 28 Sep [7]
  5. Diputacion Permanente validated RDL 25/2026 on 16 Oct 2026 [6]
  6. INE September 2026 CPI: diesel +34.0%, petrol +27.5% a year [12]
Show 5 earlier changes
  1. September 2026 CPI 4.9% a year; transport 10.5% [10]
  2. Election 29 Nov 2026; new Cortes meet 23 Dec 2026 [8]
  3. RDL 18/2026 extended some measures to 30 Sep on a phase-out path, after a 17 Jun memorandum [5]
  4. RDL 25/2026: excise cut 20 c Oct, 13 c Nov, 6 c Dec 2026; a September petrol or diesel CPI more than 15% above a year earlier raises the cut on both fuels to 20 c in Nov and 13 c in Dec; an October trigger raises that fuel's December cut to 20 c; professional diesel aid 5/12/19 c Oct-Dec 2026, lower when the safeguard applies [5]
  5. Brent above US$100 since 9 Sep, US$108.75 on 15 Sep; Gulf oil exports about half pre-conflict in August (IEA, as cited) [5]

Why it matters

Spain has cut fuel taxes and paid hauliers and farmers a diesel subsidy since March 2026, in three decree-laws answering the Iran war shock. The current decree, RDL 25/2026, cut the diesel and petrol tax by 20 cents a litre in October and was to step it down to 6 cents in December, but September's CPI tripped its price safeguard: the cut stays at 20 cents in November and is at least 13 cents in December, and it ends with the professional diesel aid on 31 Dec 2026. That date falls eight days after the new Cortes meet on 23 Dec, after the 29 Nov election, so any renewal would come from a caretaker government.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: the 23-31 Dec gap, caretaker limits, the safeguard tripped in September so at least 13 cents lapses at once. Brakes: a bridge decree needs only the Council of Ministers; prices may fall; a larger cliff raises pressure to bridge it.

Why Impact 4 Key price Spain's diesel in the Weekly Oil Bulletin; threshold case a 10% rise.

The other facts on file (3)
  • RDL 7/2026 of 20 Mar set up the Plan Integral de Respuesta a la Crisis en Oriente Medio [1] (21 Mar 2026)
  • Validated 26 Mar with only Vox against; 80 measures, EUR5bn; fuel VAT 21% to 10%; 20 cents a litre professional diesel [2] (26 Mar 2026)
  • The 10% fuel VAT lapsed at the end of June 2026 [4] (23 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzAFGHANISTANUAEIRANIRAQKUWAITOMANSAUDI ARABIATHE GULFGULF OF OMAN0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzUAEIRANKUWAITOMANTHE GULF0300 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Spain's Iran-war fuel tax cut and professional diesel aid lapse on 31 Dec 2026, or a later replacement lapses, before 31 Mar 2027 with no decree-law to replace them, and Spain's average diesel pump price in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin rises 10% or more within four weeks of the lapse.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Fuel pricesExcise rises 13-20 cents a litre plus VAT on 1 Jan 2027 [5]: 8.3% to 12.8% of the 19 Oct diesel pump price [7] (Strature's calculation from those two sources).
  3. Hauliers and farmersProfessional diesel aid ends on 31 Dec 2026 [5].
  4. Inflation and public moneySaves revenue but lifts CPI near the expected euro-area inflation peak.

Sectors 2

  • Ports and logistics
  • Agriculture and food

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Spain
Sectors
Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food
Goods
Refined fuels

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Caretaker bridge

    The caretaker government adopts a short urgent decree in late December, on the precedent of two renewals.

  2. S2

    Clean exit

    October's CPI leaves December's cut at 13 cents and crude eases, so the 15.7-cent rise is absorbed.

  3. S3

    Cliff

    The safeguard holds the cut at 20 cents to 31 Dec, no decree follows, and pump prices jump in January.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A Council of Ministers decree on fuel taxes before 31 Dec 2026
S2INE October diesel CPI no more than 15% above October 2025 (bulletin October weeks to 19 Oct: +35.4%)
S3INE October CPI for petrol or diesel more than 15% above October 2025

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 INE October CPI by subclass decides whether December's cut is 20 cents [5] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 29 Nov 2026 General election [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 23 Dec 2026 New Cortes meet [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 31 Dec 2026 Fuel excise cut and professional diesel aid end [5] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. 1 Jan 2027 Gas tariff (TUR) raw-material increase capped at 15% [5] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SPAIN · strature.net

The other side

A clean exit would cut a recurring cost to the budget and keep Spain's excise in line with the EU minimum rules the decree must notify to the Commission; the decree's own push for renewables and storage lowers the share of fuel the economy must import.

Connected in Strature

Sources

10 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Real Decreto-ley 7/2026, de 20 de marzo (BOE-A-2026-6544). Boletin Oficial del Estado · 21 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. El Congreso convalida decreto de ayudas fiscales por guerra en Iran, con el unico voto en contra de Vox (Europa Press). Bolsamania · 26 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. El Congreso vota hoy el nuevo decreto ley con ayudas fiscales por la crisis en Oriente Medio (Europa Press). Bolsamania · 23 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Real Decreto-ley 25/2026, de 29 de septiembre (BOE-A-2026-20265). Boletin Oficial del Estado · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Resolucion de 16 de octubre de 2026, convalidacion del Real Decreto-ley 25/2026 (BOE-A-2026-21788). Boletin Oficial del Estado · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Weekly Oil Bulletin, price history 2005 onwards. European Commission, DG Energy · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Real Decreto 806/2026, de 5 de octubre (BOE-A-2026-20742). Boletin Oficial del Estado · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Ley 50/1997, de 27 de noviembre, del Gobierno, articulo 21. Boletin Oficial del Estado · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Indice de Precios de Consumo, septiembre 2026. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Indices nacionales de subclases ECOICOP ver.2 (table 76128), Gasoleo and Gasolina, September 2026. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks