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World risks / Hotspot 4

Russia, Ukraine & NATO

38 risks have this as their main hotspot, and 6 more are listed here. The strongest: Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line (High impact · unlikely).

This page answers: Which risks gather in this hotspot, and how strong is each one?

Using this page
  1. Read each circle: its size shows Impact, its colour shows this month's trend.
  2. Read Likelihood in words beside each risk in the list.
  3. Click a circle or a risk to open its own page.
Lens
War
This month
▲ rising
Status
Not under way
Reviewed
28 Oct 2026
Region
11. Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line: High impact · unlikely22. The EU's ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts bites from 1 January 2027: Elevated impact · likely55. The EU switches on its ban on maritime services for Russian oil: Elevated impact · possible66. The EU puts the principal of Russia's immobilised reserves to use: Elevated impact · unlikely33. Hungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project: Elevated impact · possible44. A veto lets an EU Russia sanctions regime lapse at its renewal date: Elevated impact · possible88. The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keeps its Russia sanctions: Elevated impact · possible99. The US or EU sanctions a Chinese terminal or buyer for Arctic LNG 2 cargoes: Elevated impact · possible1111. Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) supply contract with a price: Elevated impact · possible1212. Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank: Elevated impact · possible1313. Russia restarts a reactor at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: Elevated impact · unlikely77. No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027: Elevated impact · possible1010. Attacks halt Kazakhstan's main Black Sea oil terminal for a week or more: Elevated impact · possible1616. Russian forces confront a NATO boarding of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Baltic: Elevated impact · possible1919. Russia raises taxes again, beyond its 2027 budget package, to cover a record deficit: Elevated impact · possible2121. Ukrainian drones shut a main Russian oil port for a week or more: Elevated impact · possible1515. The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock: Elevated impact · possible2020. Druzhba oil to Hungary and Slovakia stops again for two weeks or more: Elevated impact · possible2222. The UK cuts or delays a defence or Ukraine pledge for lack of money: Elevated impact · unlikely1717. The EU or the US sanctions a refinery in Kazakhstan over Russian oil: Elevated impact · possible1414. Drone strikes on merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania: Elevated impact · possible1818. Poland lays anti-personnel mines on its eastern border: Elevated impact · possible2323. Sabotage halts Dutch trains or a Rotterdam terminal for a day: Elevated impact · unlikely2424. Russia breaks the Barents Sea fisheries deal with Norway: Elevated impact · unlikely2525. Norway's gas flows to Europe fall by a third for a week: Elevated impact · unlikely2626. Russia defies Norwegian authority on Svalbard: Elevated impact · unlikely2828. Russia detains or fires on an EU ship in reprisal for tanker seizures: Low impact · possible3333. State sabotage shuts a Polish route or site that supports Ukraine for two days: Low impact · possible3131. State sabotage kills someone or shuts a German airport or rail line for a day: Low impact · possible3535. Norway blames a state for damage to a subsea cable or pipeline: Low impact · unlikely2727. Two or more undersea cables or pipes cut in one Baltic or North Sea incident: Low impact · possible2929. Russia puts another Western company's Russian business under state control: Low impact · possible3030. A parts shortage stops a Czech car line for two weeks: Low impact · possible3232. Russia blocks or takes control of an EU bank's Russian unit: Low impact · possible3434. A Turkish-flagged merchant ship is hit in the Black Sea: Low impact · possible3838. Drones shut a major Italian airport for three hours: Low impact · unlikely3636. A new Russian spy case in Vienna touches the UN, IAEA or OSCE: Low impact · possible3737. Drone reports shut a Danish airport again: Low impact · unlikely1 · High impact · unlikely2 · Elevated impact · likely5 · Elevated impact · possible6 · Elevated impact · unlikely+ 9 more in the list3 · Elevated impact · possible4 · Elevated impact · possible15 · Elevated impact · possible20 · Elevated impact · possible7 · Elevated impact · possible22 · Elevated impact · unlikely10 · Elevated impact · possible17 · Elevated impact · possible14 · Elevated impact · possible18 · Elevated impact · possible33 · Low impact · possible24 · Elevated impact · unlikely25 · Elevated impact · unlikely26 · Elevated impact · unlikely35 · Low impact · unlikely27 · Low impact · possible29 · Low impact · possible34 · Low impact · possible36 · Low impact · possibleAUSTRIABULGARIABELARUSCZECH REPUBLICGERMANYESTONIAFINLANDHUNGARYITALYKAZAKHSTANNORWAYPOLANDROMANIARUSSIASERBIASWEDENUZBEKISTAN0500 kmat 52°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line: High impact · unlikely22. The EU's ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts bites from 1 January 2027: Elevated impact · likely55. The EU switches on its ban on maritime services for Russian oil: Elevated impact · possible66. The EU puts the principal of Russia's immobilised reserves to use: Elevated impact · unlikely33. Hungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project: Elevated impact · possible44. A veto lets an EU Russia sanctions regime lapse at its renewal date: Elevated impact · possible88. The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keeps its Russia sanctions: Elevated impact · possible99. The US or EU sanctions a Chinese terminal or buyer for Arctic LNG 2 cargoes: Elevated impact · possible1010. Attacks halt Kazakhstan's main Black Sea oil terminal for a week or more: Elevated impact · possible1111. Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) supply contract with a price: Elevated impact · possible1212. Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank: Elevated impact · possible1313. Russia restarts a reactor at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: Elevated impact · unlikely77. No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027: Elevated impact · possible1616. Russian forces confront a NATO boarding of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Baltic: Elevated impact · possible1717. The EU or the US sanctions a refinery in Kazakhstan over Russian oil: Elevated impact · possible1919. Russia raises taxes again, beyond its 2027 budget package, to cover a record deficit: Elevated impact · possible2121. Ukrainian drones shut a main Russian oil port for a week or more: Elevated impact · possible2424. Russia breaks the Barents Sea fisheries deal with Norway: Elevated impact · unlikely2626. Russia defies Norwegian authority on Svalbard: Elevated impact · unlikely1515. The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock: Elevated impact · possible2020. Druzhba oil to Hungary and Slovakia stops again for two weeks or more: Elevated impact · possible2222. The UK cuts or delays a defence or Ukraine pledge for lack of money: Elevated impact · unlikely1414. Drone strikes on merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania: Elevated impact · possible1818. Poland lays anti-personnel mines on its eastern border: Elevated impact · possible2828. Russia detains or fires on an EU ship in reprisal for tanker seizures: Low impact · possible2929. Russia puts another Western company's Russian business under state control: Low impact · possible3232. Russia blocks or takes control of an EU bank's Russian unit: Low impact · possible3434. A Turkish-flagged merchant ship is hit in the Black Sea: Low impact · possible3535. Norway blames a state for damage to a subsea cable or pipeline: Low impact · unlikely3131. State sabotage kills someone or shuts a German airport or rail line for a day: Low impact · possible3333. State sabotage shuts a Polish route or site that supports Ukraine for two days: Low impact · possible2727. Two or more undersea cables or pipes cut in one Baltic or North Sea incident: Low impact · possible3030. A parts shortage stops a Czech car line for two weeks: Low impact · possible3636. A new Russian spy case in Vienna touches the UN, IAEA or OSCE: Low impact · possible3737. Drone reports shut a Danish airport again: Low impact · unlikelyKyivAUSTRIABELARUSCZECH REPUBLICESTONIAFINLANDHUNGARYLITHUANIALATVIAPOLANDROMANIARUSSIASERBIASWEDENUKRAINE0300 kmat 52°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Circle size · ImpactlowelevatedhighColour · this monthrisingsteadyfallingcrimson ring: under waymain lane, schematicchokepoint

Source · Strature risk cards with this main hotspot · Map data: Natural Earth (public domain). · lanes schematic · places approximateData as of 31 Oct 2026

Risks in this hotspot Strongest first; Impact and Likelihood in words

  7. No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027Elevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
30 more risks in this hotspot
  4. Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flankElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  6. Drone strikes on merchant ships off Bulgaria and RomaniaElevated impact · possible · ▲ rising
  10. Poland lays anti-personnel mines on its eastern borderElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  15. Sabotage halts Dutch trains or a Rotterdam terminal for a dayElevated impact · unlikely · ▲ rising
  16. Russia breaks the Barents Sea fisheries deal with NorwayElevated impact · unlikely · ▼ falling
  17. Norway's gas flows to Europe fall by a third for a weekElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady
  18. Russia defies Norwegian authority on SvalbardElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady
  22. A parts shortage stops a Czech car line for two weeksLow impact · possible · ▶ steady
  29. Drone reports shut a Danish airport againLow impact · unlikely · ▶ steady
  30. Drones shut a major Italian airport for three hoursLow impact · unlikely · ▶ steady

Also listed here risks whose main hotspot is another

  3. The US penalises India again for buying Russian oilElevated impact · possible · ▼ falling