The EU puts the principal of Russia's immobilised reserves to use
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the EU adopts a legal act (a regulation or a Council decision) that uses the principal or cash balances of the immobilised Central Bank of Russia assets held in the EU, for a loan to Ukraine, to repay the Ukraine Support Loan or for any other purpose, beyond the income they earn.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- PM Koretsky put the 2027 state budget gap at USD32.6bn on 14 Oct; EUR70bn is President Zelenskyy's estimate of total additional 2027 financing needs [11]
- NBU governor Andriy Pyshnyy (Interfax-Ukraine, published 26 Oct): the IMF is studying how the assets could be used; options named are ERA-2 and a second support loan using cash flows [11]
- Commission acknowledges EUR70bn missing for Ukraine in 2027; special European Council on 26-27 Nov 2026 [10]
Why it matters
A central securities depository in Brussels holds €202bn linked to sanctioned Russian assets; in Dec 2025 Euronews put the Central Bank of Russia assets there at about €185bn. In December 2025 EU leaders chose joint borrowing over a loan built on that cash, but kept the right to use the assets to repay it. The Commission acknowledges that €70bn is missing for Ukraine in 2027, and Ukraine's prime minister puts the 2027 state budget gap at US$32.6bn, which brings the question back; Belgium carries most of the legal risk.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: the 2027 gap (EUR70bn of needs; USD32.6bn state budget gap), the IMF's study of using the assets, the EU's reserved right. Brakes: Belgium's conditions, the Dec 2025 choice of borrowing, current options use cash flows not principal, the Moscow award.
Why Impact 6 No key price sourced.
The other facts on file (10)
- Euroclear Bank balance sheet EUR241bn at end-June 2026, of which EUR202bn related to sanctioned Russian assets [2] (30 Jun 2026)
- End-March 2026: EUR237bn balance sheet, EUR200bn Russian-related [1] (31 Mar 2026)
- About EUR6.6bn of windfall profits paid to the EU; a further payment estimated at EUR1.4bn was due in July 2026 (Euroclear, 17 Jul); H1 2026 interest EUR2.3bn, down 13% [2] (17 Jul 2026)
- CET1 capital about EUR9.2bn, ratio about 55%; Russian-related RWA about EUR7.4bn [2] (17 Jul 2026)
- Moscow court ruled for the Central Bank of Russia on 15 May 2026; Euroclear's appeal rejected on 16 Jul 2026 [2] (17 Jul 2026)
- Central Bank of Russia claim 18.2 trillion roubles (about USD231bn); more than 100 other suits seek about USD2.5bn; Silicium-2 awarded USD194.2m [8] (28 Jul 2026)
- Euroclear has sued the Central Bank of Russia before the Brussels Enterprise Court [7] (17 Jul 2026)
- EU ambassadors agreed indefinite immobilisation under Article 122 by qualified majority; release needs a new qualified majority and conditions including reparations and an end to the risks to the EU economy; EUR185bn at Euroclear of EUR210bn [4] (11 Dec 2025)
- European Council agreed a EUR90bn loan for 2026-2027 funded by EU borrowing; the Union reserves its right to use the immobilised assets to repay it; work on a Reparations Loan continues [3] (18 Dec 2025)
- De Wever called the Commission's plan fundamentally flawed and set conditions on risk sharing and guarantees [5] (28 Nov 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the EU adopts a legal act (a regulation or a Council decision) that uses the principal or cash balances of the immobilised Central Bank of Russia assets held in the EU, for a loan to Ukraine, to repay the Ukraine Support Loan or for any other purpose, beyond the income they earn.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Belgium's central securities depositoryThe depository's capital is about EUR9.2bn against EUR202bn of Russian-linked balances [2]; Belgium wants EU guarantees first [5].
- LitigationThe Moscow court's award to the Central Bank of Russia, on a claim of 18.2 trillion roubles [8], could be pressed against the depository's assets in Russia or in countries friendly to Russia (Strature's view).
- The euroDe Wever warned of higher risk premiums and harm to confidence in the euro.
- UkraineA loan on the cash balances would cover the 2027 gap on either measure, EUR70bn [10] or USD32.6bn [11] (Strature's view).
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 4
- Belgium primary
- European Union primary
- Ukraine
- Russia
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Belgium, European Union, Ukraine, Russia
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers
- Companies
- euroclear
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Income only
The EU covers 2027 with more borrowing or the assets' cash flows; the principal stays frozen.
- S2
The reparations loan returns
The Commission tables a revised plan that meets Belgium's guarantees.
- S3
Peace terms decide
A ceasefire deal assigns the reserves to reconstruction and the EU acts on it.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The 26-27 Nov 2026 summit agrees 2027 money without a reparations loan |
| S2 | A Belgian government statement accepting guarantees before the March 2027 European Council |
| S3 | A signed ceasefire text that names the assets |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 26 Nov 2026 Special European Council on the MFF and Ukraine funding (26-27 Nov) [10] Tentative · Outside event
- 5 Feb 2027 Informal leaders' meeting Alden Biesen 2 [10] Tentative · Outside event
- 18 Mar 2027 European Council, proposed in Rome (18-19 Mar) [10] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
Using the principal would fund Ukraine without new EU debt, and Ukraine would repay only if Russia pays reparations. A settled framework would end a year of uncertainty over EUR202bn [2].
Connected in Strature
- Belgium
- European Union
- Russia
- No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027 Shares a channel: The same EU money for Ukraine; that card scores 2028 funding.
- Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line Driven by: Peace talks decide what happens to the assets.
- De Wever's five-party government falls over the budget Shares a channel: A caretaker Belgian government would face the decision.
- A veto lets an EU Russia sanctions regime lapse at its renewal date Shares a channel: The Article 122 act took the assets out of the six-month sanctions renewal.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Results for the first quarter ending 31 March 2026. Euroclear · 8 May 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Results for the first half year ended 30 June 2026. Euroclear · 17 Jul 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- European Council, 18 December 2025, Ukraine (EUCO 26/25). EEAS Delegation to Ukraine · 18 Dec 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- EU triggers emergency clause to indefinitely immobilise Russian assets. Euronews · 11 Dec 2025 · News · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- EU Aid from Frozen Russian Funds Could Backfire, Belgian PM Says. Kyiv Post · 28 Nov 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Russian court rejects Euroclear appeal over frozen assets. The Brussels Times (Belga) · 17 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Russian firm wins $194M lawsuit against Euroclear in Moscow. The Moscow Times · 28 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- EU leaders to discuss funding for Ukraine at special meeting. European Pravda · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Frozen Russian assets key to covering Ukraine's 2027 financing needs: National Bank governor. Interfax-Ukraine · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks