Norway's gas flows to Europe fall by a third for a week
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, an unplanned event (a fault, fire, strike or sabotage) cuts Norway's pipeline gas deliveries to Europe by a third or more against the previous week's level, for 7 consecutive days or more, as shown by Gassco's data or stated by Gassco or the Norwegian government.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Gassco: 94.52 bcm to Europe in 2026 so far (91.86 bcm a year earlier); 114.9 bcm in 2025; Germany 47.34 bcm; 8,600 km of pipelines; six receiving terminals. [2]
- Planned Troll maintenance of 13 mcm/d on 21-22 and 23-24 Oct 2026. [5]
- World Bank Europe gas price US$25.42/MMBtu in Sep 2026, US$11.24 in Feb. [8]
- PST: Russia keeps seeking information on coastal and seabed infrastructure; vessels may prepare sabotage. [11]
- OilPrice: QatarEnergy extended the force majeure to the end of November 2026, and to early December for Italy's buyer. [15]
- TTF October contract €82.52/MWh on 14 Sep 2026; EU storage 68.49% on 15 Sep against 80.6% a year earlier. [6]
Why it matters
Norway is now Europe's main gas supplier: 51.2% of the EU's pipeline gas imports in the second quarter of 2026, and 94.52 bcm sent to Europe so far this year. Europe enters winter with storage below normal and Qatari LNG partly lost since March, so a long unplanned loss of Norwegian flows would hit a tight market. Such a loss is rare: outages at the big fields and plants have been planned or short. This is a risk scenario, not a view on any market, contract or security.
Why Likelihood 3 Brakes: steady 2026 deliveries, plant faults fixed within days, the government ended an offshore strike within a day in 2022.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case, a third of flow for a week (about 0.7 bcm): Europe as one region; gas lost under US$1bn; weeks; storage and spot LNG at high cost with Qatari supply reduced.
The other facts on file (4)
- Sep 2023: Troll 125 mcm/d and Kollsnes 153 mcm/d offline for planned works; exports to continental Europe nominated at 136.8 mcm/d on 6 Sep. [3] (8 Sep 2023)
- 16 Apr 2024: total flows 313.4 mcm/d; unplanned Nyhamna cut of 49.8 mcm/d. [4] (16 Apr 2024)
- QatarEnergy force majeure on some long-term LNG contracts, 24 Mar 2026; buyers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China named; 12.8 Mt a year sidelined for three to five years. [12] (24 Mar 2026)
- July 2022: the government ended an offshore strike with compulsory arbitration less than a day after it began. [14] (5 Jul 2022)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, an unplanned event (a fault, fire, strike or sabotage) cuts Norway's pipeline gas deliveries to Europe by a third or more against the previous week's level, for 7 consecutive days or more, as shown by Gassco's data or stated by Gassco or the Norwegian government.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaA higher LNG price is a gain for Canadian sellers (Strature's view); no sourced loss.
- Europe's gas priceExtra storage draws and spot LNG bids in a low-storage winter; size of the move not sourced.
- Industry in Germany and BelgiumGermany takes half of Norway's flow [2]; gas-intensive industry cuts first.
- Asian LNG buyersEurope would bid against Japan and South Korea for spot cargoes (Strature's view); South Korean and Chinese buyers already lost Qatari volumes [12].
Goods 1
Sectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 6
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Germany, United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy, Japan, South Korea
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- LNG
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Normal winter
Flows hold near last year's pace; outages short or planned.
- S2
A short scare
An unplanned plant fault cuts flows for a day or two; prices jump, then recover.
- S3
A long cut
A fire, a pipeline breach or a labour stoppage keeps a third of flow offline for a week or more.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Gassco's year-end total near 2025's 114.9 bcm |
| S2 | An unplanned Kollsnes or Nyhamna outage above 40 mcm/d in Gassco's notices |
| S3 | A damage report on a trunk pipeline, or a strike notice at the processing plants |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Winter peak demand, Nov 2026 to Mar 2027, with EU storage below the seasonal norm (68.49% on 15 Sep against a five-year average of 84%) [6] Tentative · Window
- 1 Jan 2027 EU ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts applies [16] Declared · Outside event
- Feb 2027 PST national threat assessment 2027 (2026 edition published 6 Feb 2026) [13] Tentative · Outside event
- Oct 2027 Start of the 2027-28 gas year (Gassco: October starts the gas year) [2] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
Another winter of steady Norwegian deliveries would make the case for long-term contracts and more storage. Strature's view: a price spike would lift Norway's state revenue and, at the margin, Canadian and US LNG sales.
Connected in Strature
- LNG
- Norway
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Belgium
- Netherlands
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Drives: A Norwegian cut is one route to mandatory industrial gas cuts in the EU.
- Norway blames a state for damage to a subsea cable or pipeline Driven by: Sabotage of a trunk pipeline is one cause that would meet this event.
- Zeebrugge goes a winter quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG Shares a channel: Belgium takes 13.14 bcm of Norwegian gas this year and lost Qatari cargoes.
- Norway curbs power exports to Europe Shares a channel: Norway's energy exports to Europe.
Sources
14 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- EU imports of energy products: latest developments. Eurostat · 2026-09 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Key figures. Gassco · 25 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Norway gas outages extended at key fields as export slump continues. Hellenic Shipping News (Platts) · 8 Sep 2023 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Norway gas maintenance: unplanned works limit output ahead of seasonal works. MNI Markets · 16 Apr 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- North Sea gas maintenance schedule: adds Troll outage. Capital.com (Reuters schedule) · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- European gas prices exceeded €80/MWh in September. GMK Center · 20 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release. World Bank · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Reuters: Russia trained with new secret weapon near Svalbard. High North News · 10 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Trusler langs kysten. Politiets sikkerhetstjeneste (PST) · 1 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- QatarEnergy declares force majeure on some LNG contracts due to Iran war. Al Jazeera · 24 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Nasjonal trusselvurdering 2026. Politiets sikkerhetstjeneste (PST) · 6 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Tvungen lønnsnemnd i oljestreiken. Teknisk Ukeblad (NTB) · 5 Jul 2022 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Qatar extends LNG force majeure as Hormuz crisis drags on. OilPrice.com · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
- EU takes next step towards energy independence from Russia. European Commission · 2 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks