Zeebrugge goes a winter quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG
The test Eurostat's monthly import data (nrg_ti_gasm) show Belgium importing no natural gas from Qatar and none from Russia in each of January, February and March 2027.
Under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Belgian gas imports from Qatar 349.5 million m3 in Mar 2026, zero Apr-Sep 2026; also zero in Nov 2025 [2]
- Belgian gas imports from Russia 771.9 million m3 in Apr 2026 (highest of the 12 months read), 482.5 in Jul, zero in Aug and Sep 2026 [2]
- Belgium's total gas imports 3,747 million m3 in Jun 2026, 2,630 in Sep; Norway 1,449 in Sep [2]
- Belgian gas imports from the US zero in Jul 2026, 99.4 million m3 in Aug: the monthly partner series is noisy [2]
- Belgium's 2024 gas imports 18,952 million m3: Russia 3,445 (18.2%), Qatar 2,762 (14.6%), US 1,261 (6.7%); all gas, including re-exports [1]
- World Bank Europe gas price US$11.24 per MMBtu in Feb 2026, US$25.42 in Sep 2026 [9]
- QatarEnergy extended its LNG force majeure for Asia and Europe to the end of November 2026, from end-October (Bloomberg, unnamed sources); Edison to early December [6]
Why it matters
In 2024 Russia and Qatar supplied 32.7% of Belgium's gas imports, most of it as LNG through Zeebrugge. Eurostat's monthly data show no gas from Qatar since April 2026 and none from Russia in August and September. The EU's ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts applies from 1 Jan 2027, and QatarEnergy's force majeure runs to the end of November, as reported. The question is whether Zeebrugge stays without both suppliers through the first quarter of 2027.
Why Likelihood 8 Pushes: the Russian LNG ban applies 1 Jan 2027 with a narrow suspension clause; six months without Qatari gas; force majeure to the end of November (as reported). Brakes: a strait deal could bring Qatari cargoes back; an emergency suspension; the Russian zeros are unexplained in a noisy series.
Why Impact 5 Key price: World Bank Europe gas. Threshold case: one quarter without both.
The other facts on file (4)
- Regulation (EU) 2026/261 bans Russian LNG under short-term contracts from 25 Apr 2026 and long-term contracts from 1 Jan 2027, for contracts concluded before 17 Jun 2025; suspension only after a declared emergency, at most 4 weeks at a time, short-term contracts only [3] (26 Jan 2026)
- The regulation entered into force the day after publication [4] (2 Feb 2026)
- Zeebrugge normally takes up to three Qatari cargoes a month; five April 2026 slots released on Fluxys's secondary market; Reuters attributes the offer to QatarEnergy [7] (18 Mar 2026)
- Fluxys's 2015 terminal contract with Yamal LNG runs to 2040; Fluxys will comply with the EU ban [8] (25 Sep 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Eurostat's monthly import data (nrg_ti_gasm) show Belgium importing no natural gas from Qatar and none from Russia in each of January, February and March 2027.
Under way nowChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian LNG reaches Belgium; no Canadian loss sourced.
- Belgium's supplyA third of 2024 imports missing through the coldest quarter (Russia 18.2% and Qatar 14.6% of 2024 imports [1]); Norway and US LNG carry the load [2].
- North-west EuropeA smaller Zeebrugge hub tightens supply for France, the Netherlands and Germany (Strature's view).
- PricesReplacement cargoes bought in a market where Europe's gas price more than doubled from February to September [9].
Goods 1
Sectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Straits 1
Countries 9
Who is exposed
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- LNG
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
A quarter without both
The Russian ban applies on 1 Jan and Hormuz stays unsafe for LNG, so no Qatari cargo arrives before April.
- S2
Qatar returns first
A US-Iran text reopens the strait and Qatari cargoes reach Zeebrugge in early 2027.
- S3
The ban bends
A declared gas emergency leads the Commission to suspend the ban, letting Russian LNG in under short-term contracts.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A QatarEnergy extension past the end of November 2026 |
| S2 | A non-zero Qatar figure in Eurostat's January 2027 data |
| S3 | A Commission suspension decision under Article 13 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 QatarEnergy force majeure runs to the end of November, as reported [6] Tentative · Outside event
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [10] Declared · Strature date
- 1 Jan 2027 EU ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts applies [3] Declared · Outside event
- 31 Mar 2027 Scored window ends Declared · Strature date
- Apr 2027 Eurostat monthly data for March 2027, late April to May [2] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
Norway and the United States gain share in Belgium's gas supply. Fluxys can resell unused slots on its secondary market. A quarter without Russian LNG is the EU's own goal under the regulation.
Connected in Strature
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- LNG
- Strait of Hormuz
- Belgium
- Qatar
- Russia
- European Union
- France
- Germany
- Netherlands
- United States
- Norway
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: The strait's insecurity keeps Qatari LNG halted.
- Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027 Shares a channel: The same QatarEnergy force majeure.
- The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock Shares a channel: A delay to the ban would break the Russian limb.
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Shares a channel: Belgium buys replacement LNG in the same winter market.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Natural gas imports, annual data (nrg_ti_gas), BE, 2024. Eurostat · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Natural gas imports, monthly data (nrg_ti_gasm), BE by partner, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Eurostat · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on phasing out Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the EU (read via LawPlayer copy) · 2 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- EU takes next step towards energy independence from Russia. European Commission · 2 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Qatar extends LNG force majeure as Hormuz crisis drags on. OilPrice.com · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Qatar markets April LNG slots at Zeebrugge amid extended supply outage. Pipeline & Gas Journal (Reuters) · 18 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Fluxys raakt niet los van het Russische gas. VRT NWS · 25 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices. World Bank · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Forecast register (F-0074). Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks