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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · Russia, Ukraine & NATO

Russia puts another Western company's Russian business under state control

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, a Russian presidential decree places the shares or operations in Russia of at least one company based in the EU, Switzerland, the UK, the US, Canada or another state Russia calls unfriendly, other than the companies named in the decree of 17 Sep 2026, under temporary management.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 17 Sep 2026: a presidential decree placed 16 Russian units of Western-owned groups in food, retail and logistics under temporary management.

Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth2
Depth2
Duration6
Hard to substitute3
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. ECB reference rates 23 Oct 2026: USD 1.1193 and CHF 0.9227 per euro [8]
  2. Nestle Russia six plants, about 7,000 staff (pre-2022), nearly CHF 2bn of 2021 sales (about 2% of group); Auchan about 230 stores; French ministries condemned the measure on 18 Sep [3]
  3. Swiss authorities to give Nestle diplomatic support (NZZ); options are court or arbitration, or exit [4]
  4. Peskov cited unfriendly countries; Nestle will take all necessary steps to protect its rights; Auchan unit asked for clarification; L.E.V. Management registered Oct 2024 [2]
  5. Decree signed 17 Sep 2026 covers 100% of OOO Ashan, two Nestle subsidiaries and OOO Le Monlid (Lemana Pro); manager AO L.E.V. Management, director appointed 10 Sep 2026, owners undisclosed [1]
  6. Decree No. 661 of 17 Sep 2026, amending Decree No. 302 of 2023, added 16 Russian entities of foreign-owned groups to the temporary-management list, including three FM Logistic and nine Batilogistic subsidiaries; in force on publication [11]

Why it matters

On 17 September 2026 presidential Decree No. 661 placed 16 Russian entities of Western-owned groups under temporary management by a Moscow company, among them the Russian units of Nestle (Swiss) and Auchan (French), the operator of the former Leroy Merlin chain and logistics units. The Kremlin linked the move to unfriendly countries, and an August 2026 decree lets the state take over any business it finds a risk to critical infrastructure. It is one of several such decrees since 2023, after Ariston and BSH in April 2024 and a US-owned food maker in October 2024. The question is whether a further Western company is taken within a year.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: fresh precedent, a ready manager company, a wider legal basis, retaliation logic while the EU debates Russian reserves. Brakes: Swiss and French diplomatic pressure; title stays with owners; Ariston released in Mar 2025. Trend up: the 17 Sep 2026 decree is inside the last three months.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case one more company's Russian unit.

The other facts on file (6)
  • Decree No. 604 of 24 Aug 2026 (on the security of critical infrastructure) lets the president direct temporary administration of any private business, Russian or foreign-owned, that fails to secure critical infrastructure or breaches security rules [12] (Aug 2026)
  • A presidential decree of 15 Oct 2024 placed the US-owned canned-food holding Glavprodukt and its parent under temporary management by Rosimushchestvo [13] (15 Oct 2024)
  • April 2023 decree placed Fortum and Uniper Russian shares under Rosimushchestvo temporary management; Fortum Russian holdings book value EUR 1.7bn at end-2022 [6] (26 Apr 2023)
  • 2023 decree framed as retaliation if Russian assets abroad are harmed; Rosimushchestvo said more foreign firms could come under temporary control (TASS) [7] (26 Apr 2023)
  • April 2024 decree placed the assets of Ariston Holding and BSH Hausgerate under temporary management of a Gazprom subsidiary [9] (26 Apr 2024)
  • Decree No. 176 of 26 Mar 2025 lifted temporary management from Ariston's Russian unit only [10] (27 Mar 2025)

Where it sits

11. Russia puts another Western company's Russian business under state control: Low impact · possible1 · Low impact · possibleMoscowKyivWarsawAUSTRIABULGARIABELARUSCZECH REPUBLICGERMANYESTONIAFINLANDHUNGARYITALYKAZAKHSTANLITHUANIALATVIANORWAYPOLANDROMANIARUSSIASERBIASWEDENUKRAINEUZBEKISTANBLACK SEA0500 kmat 52°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Russia puts another Western company's Russian business under state control: Low impact · possibleMoscowKyivAUSTRIABULGARIABELARUSCZECH REPUBLICESTONIAFINLANDHUNGARYLITHUANIALATVIAPOLANDROMANIARUSSIASERBIASWEDENUKRAINE0300 kmat 52°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, a Russian presidential decree places the shares or operations in Russia of at least one company based in the EU, Switzerland, the UK, the US, Canada or another state Russia calls unfriendly, other than the companies named in the decree of 17 Sep 2026, under temporary management.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian company in Russia under threat is sourced.
  2. Company controlA further decree cuts a parent's control of its Russian unit, as the April 2023 decree did for Uniper and Fortum [6].
  3. Swiss and EU diplomacyBern and Paris would face a further case to raise with Moscow.
  4. Exit decisionsFirms still in Russia weigh court action or exit.

Countries 3

Who is exposed

Countries
Switzerland, France, Russia

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    One-off

    No further decree; Nestle and Auchan contest theirs.

  2. S2

    Tit for tat

    A further decree follows a Western step on Russian assets.

  3. S3

    Forced sales

    Units under temporary management go to local buyers.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No new decree on the legal portal by 25 Oct 2027
S2An EU legal act using the principal of Russian reserves
S3A published sale of a unit named in the 17 Sep 2026 decree

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 25 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Firms that left Russia earlier carry no such exposure, and the 2026 decree keeps formal ownership with the parents [1]. Swiss and French diplomatic support for the companies concerned keeps the case open between governments (Strature's view). Ariston's unit was released in March 2025 [10], so a decree can be reversed.

Connected in Strature

Sources

12 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Putin peredal Nestle, Ashan i Lemanu Pro vo vremennoe upravlenie. iStories · 17 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Nestle and Auchan comment on the decree on temporary management. Meduza · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. La Russie prend le controle des supermarches francais Auchan et des filiales suisses de Nestle. Presse-citron · 12 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Nestle plans to contest the transfer of Russian assets to temporary management. Retail.ru · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Inside information: Russia has issued new presidential decree, implications for Fortum's assets. Fortum · 26 Apr 2023 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Putin signs decree to control two foreign firms' assets in Russia. Al Jazeera · 26 Apr 2023 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Euro foreign exchange reference rates. European Central Bank · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Russia: President transfers the assets of Ariston Holding and BSH Hausgerate GmbH under Gazprom's administration. Global Trade Alert · 26 Apr 2024 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Putin lifts temporary management from Ariston's Russian subsidiary. Interfax · 27 Mar 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Russia places assets of Auchan and Nestlé under temporary management. Noerr · 2026-09 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  11. Russia's President Adopts New Decree on Forced Takeover of Businesses. Morgan Lewis · 2026-08 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  12. Putin orders seizure of US-owned canned food maker. The Moscow Times · 15 Oct 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: Likelihood 4 unchanged · All risks