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World risks / Hotspot 3

US trade & foreign policy

34 risks have this as their main hotspot, and 9 more are listed here. The strongest: The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil (High impact · unlikely).

This page answers: Which risks gather in this hotspot, and how strong is each one?

Using this page
  1. Read each circle: its size shows Impact, its colour shows this month's trend.
  2. Read Likelihood in words beside each risk in the list.
  3. Click a circle or a risk to open its own page.
Lens
Geoeconomics
This month
▼ falling
Status
Under way
Reviewed
28 Oct 2026
Region
11. The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil: High impact · unlikely33. The WTO adopts no reform of dispute settlement or decision-making by 25 Oct 2027: Elevated impact · likely44. United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade, the budget and the Fed: Elevated impact · likely55. The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil: Elevated impact · unlikely22. The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows: Elevated impact · likely66. US armed forces act on Canadian territory or in waters Canada claims, without Canada's consent: Elevated impact · unlikely88. The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines: Elevated impact · possible99. The US raises its tariff on EU cars above the 15% deal rate: Elevated impact · possible1010. The US opens a trade case against EU digital rules: Elevated impact · possible1111. The US lifts its general tariff on EU goods above 15%: Elevated impact · possible1212. The US raises or widens its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies: Elevated impact · possible1313. The US penalises India again for buying Russian oil: Elevated impact · possible1414. The US raises its drug tariff on EU medicines above 15%: Elevated impact · possible1515. The US raises its tariff on South Korean cars above 15%: Elevated impact · possible1616. The US cuts its troops in South Korea or cancels a major allied exercise: Elevated impact · possible1818. The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysian electronics, machinery or other named goods: Elevated impact · possible1919. The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars, machinery or rubber goods: Elevated impact · possible2020. The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods: Elevated impact · possible77. US duties on Canadian softwood lumber stay above 30% through October 2027: Elevated impact · under way1717. The US openly strikes cartel targets inside Mexico without Mexico's consent: Elevated impact · possible2525. US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December: Elevated impact · possible2626. The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list: Elevated impact · possible2727. The US raises its Section 301 duty on Brazil or strips its exemptions: Elevated impact · unlikely2828. The US raises its tariff on UK goods above 10% or ends the UK's zero drug rate: Elevated impact · unlikely2929. Congress blocks or conditions the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia: Elevated impact · unlikely2121. Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada: Elevated impact · possible2222. Canada's real GDP falls for two quarters in a row by the fourth quarter of 2027: Elevated impact · possible2323. USTR opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act: Elevated impact · possible2424. The US charges or sanctions another sitting Mexican governor or federal official: Elevated impact · possible3030. US forces join a lethal strike on an armed group inside Colombia: Low impact · possible3131. The US puts a tariff on Danish goods over Greenland: Low impact · unlikely3232. The US lifts its waiver and puts Graham Act duties on Russian goods, potash included: Low impact · unlikely3333. The US imposes the first labour-mechanism remedy on a Mexican facility: Low impact · unlikely3434. The US singles out Austria over its neutrality: Low impact · unlikely1 · High impact · unlikely3 · Elevated impact · likely4 · Elevated impact · likely5 · Elevated impact · unlikely+ 22 more in the list2 · Elevated impact · likely6 · Elevated impact · unlikely7 · Elevated impact · under way21 · Elevated impact · possible+ 2 more in the list17 · Elevated impact · possible24 · Elevated impact · possibleMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil: High impact · unlikely33. The WTO adopts no reform of dispute settlement or decision-making by 25 Oct 2027: Elevated impact · likely44. United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade, the budget and the Fed: Elevated impact · likely55. The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil: Elevated impact · unlikely66. US armed forces act on Canadian territory or in waters Canada claims, without Canada's consent: Elevated impact · unlikely22. The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows: Elevated impact · likely77. US duties on Canadian softwood lumber stay above 30% through October 2027: Elevated impact · under way88. The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines: Elevated impact · possible99. The US raises its tariff on EU cars above the 15% deal rate: Elevated impact · possible1010. The US opens a trade case against EU digital rules: Elevated impact · possible1111. The US lifts its general tariff on EU goods above 15%: Elevated impact · possible1212. The US raises or widens its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies: Elevated impact · possible1313. The US penalises India again for buying Russian oil: Elevated impact · possible1414. The US raises its drug tariff on EU medicines above 15%: Elevated impact · possible1515. The US raises its tariff on South Korean cars above 15%: Elevated impact · possible1616. The US cuts its troops in South Korea or cancels a major allied exercise: Elevated impact · possible1818. The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysian electronics, machinery or other named goods: Elevated impact · possible1919. The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars, machinery or rubber goods: Elevated impact · possible2020. The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods: Elevated impact · possible1717. The US openly strikes cartel targets inside Mexico without Mexico's consent: Elevated impact · possible2121. Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada: Elevated impact · possible2222. Canada's real GDP falls for two quarters in a row by the fourth quarter of 2027: Elevated impact · possible2323. USTR opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act: Elevated impact · possible2525. US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December: Elevated impact · possible2626. The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list: Elevated impact · possible2727. The US raises its Section 301 duty on Brazil or strips its exemptions: Elevated impact · unlikely2828. The US raises its tariff on UK goods above 10% or ends the UK's zero drug rate: Elevated impact · unlikely2929. Congress blocks or conditions the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia: Elevated impact · unlikely2424. The US charges or sanctions another sitting Mexican governor or federal official: Elevated impact · possible3030. US forces join a lethal strike on an armed group inside Colombia: Low impact · possible3131. The US puts a tariff on Danish goods over Greenland: Low impact · unlikely3232. The US lifts its waiver and puts Graham Act duties on Russian goods, potash included: Low impact · unlikely3333. The US imposes the first labour-mechanism remedy on a Mexican facility: Low impact · unlikely3434. The US singles out Austria over its neutrality: Low impact · unlikelyWashingtonCANADAMEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Circle size · ImpactlowelevatedhighColour · this monthrisingsteadyfallingcrimson ring: under waymain lane, schematicchokepoint

Source · Strature risk cards with this main hotspot · Map data: Natural Earth (public domain). · lanes schematic · places approximateData as of 31 Oct 2026

Risks in this hotspot Strongest first; Impact and Likelihood in words

  8. The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicinesElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
26 more risks in this hotspot
  1. The US raises its tariff on EU cars above the 15% deal rateElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  2. The US opens a trade case against EU digital rulesElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  3. The US lifts its general tariff on EU goods above 15%Elevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  5. The US penalises India again for buying Russian oilElevated impact · possible · ▼ falling
  6. The US raises its drug tariff on EU medicines above 15%Elevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  7. The US raises its tariff on South Korean cars above 15%Elevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  13. Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from CanadaElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  18. The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free listElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  21. Congress blocks or conditions the F-35 sale to Saudi ArabiaElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady
  23. The US puts a tariff on Danish goods over GreenlandLow impact · unlikely · ▶ steady
  26. The US singles out Austria over its neutralityLow impact · unlikely · ▶ steady

Also listed here risks whose main hotspot is another

  2. China's export surge meets a wall of trade defenceElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
1 more risks in this hotspot