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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · Tech & chip controls

The US widens its Section 232 chip tariff from a short list to most chips

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the US puts in force a Section 232 duty of 15% or more that covers most imported semiconductors, or most imported goods that contain them, beyond the narrow list in Proclamation 11002.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
7High steady this month
Breadth7
Depth6
Duration7
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. No presidential document on semiconductor tariffs since 21 Jan 2026 other than the polysilicon proclamation [12]
  2. TSMC 3Q26 (company filing): North America 79% of net revenue, HPC 68%, net revenue US$46.72bn [9]
  3. Taiwan September 2026 exports US$87.22bn, +60.9%; Jan-Sep US$661.55bn [10]

Why it matters

Since 15 Jan 2026 the US has charged a 25% Section 232 duty on a narrow set of advanced computing chips, with wide exemptions. The same proclamation says the President may consider significant tariffs on semiconductors more broadly, with an offset for firms that build in the US; nine months on, no such proclamation has been published. Taiwan's exposure is large: exports to the US reached US$198.3bn in 2025, 30.9% of its goods exports.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: phase two written into Proclamation 11002; Section 232 still in active use after the IEEPA ruling (polysilicon). Brakes: no proclamation nine months on; data-centre exemptions; preferential treatment promised to Taiwan. Drivers in place, blockers holding.

Why Impact 7 Threshold case a 15% duty on most imported chips.

The other facts on file (10)
  • 25% Section 232 duty on certain advanced computing chips from 15 Jan 2026; President may consider significant tariffs on semiconductors with a tariff offset program; market update on data-centre chips due to the President by 1 Jul 2026, no update published as of 26 Oct 2026 [12]; US makes about 10% of the chips it needs [1] (20 Jan 2026)
  • Exemptions for US data centres, US repairs and replacements, R&D, startups, non-data-center consumer and civil industrial uses, public sector; investigation report sent 22 Dec 2025 [2] (14 Jan 2026)
  • Taiwanese firms building US chip capacity may import 2.5 times planned capacity free of Section 232 duties during construction, 1.5 times after; lower preferential rate above quota; US$250bn investment and US$250bn credit guarantees [3] (15 Jan 2026)
  • Agreement on Reciprocal Trade: 15% rate as MFN plus reciprocal tariff under EO 14257; preferential treatment in the semiconductor 232 investigation; entry into force after Taiwan's legislative review [4] (Feb 2026)
  • Supreme Court: IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs [5] (20 Feb 2026)
  • CBP stops collecting IEEPA duties from 24 Feb 2026 [6] (22 Feb 2026)
  • Section 301 tariff (forced-labour investigations) on Taiwan of 10% net of MFN from 24 Jul 2026; goods paying the 232 chip duty and certain chipmaking equipment exempt [7] (28 Jul 2026)
  • Taiwan exports to the US US$198.3bn in 2025, +78.0%; 30.9% of exports [8] (23 Feb 2026)
  • About 80% of Taiwan's exports to the US exempt under Section 232 or other policies (Kristy Hsu) [11] (11 Jun 2026)
  • 15% Section 232 duty on polysilicon ingots and derivatives from 4 Dec 2026; Taiwan total including the MFN rate set at 15%; minimum import price program [13] (11 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The US widens its Section 232 chip tariff from a short list to most chips: High impact · possible1 · High impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalUNITED STATESCHINATAIWANSOUTH KOREAJAPANNETHERLANDSPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The US widens its Section 232 chip tariff from a short list to most chips: High impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESCHINATAIWANJAPANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the US puts in force a Section 232 duty of 15% or more that covers most imported semiconductors, or most imported goods that contain them, beyond the narrow list in Proclamation 11002.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo sourced Canadian loss; a derivative-goods scope could touch Canadian goods with chips.
  2. US pricesA broad duty would reprice imported chips; the US makes about 10% of the chips it needs [1].
  3. Taiwan exportsQuotas and the preferential rate would decide how much of the US$198.3bn flow [8] pays [3].
  4. InvestmentThe offset program would reward chip capacity built in the US.

Sectors 1

  • Technology

Who is exposed

Countries
Taiwan, United States, South Korea, Japan
Sectors
Technology
Goods
Semiconductors
Companies
TSMC

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Narrow stays narrow

    The 25% list and its exemptions stay.

  2. S2

    Broad tariff with offsets

    A second proclamation sets a broad rate, with Taiwan's quota and preferential rate applied.

  3. S3

    Broad tariff, no Taiwan carve-out

    Taiwan's legislature stalls the agreement and the broad rate hits Taiwanese chips in full.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No new semiconductor proclamation by mid-2027
S2A Commerce update or proclamation naming a rate for HTS 8541/8542
S3The Legislative Yuan's vote on the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 4 Dec 2026 Section 232 polysilicon duty starts, Taiwan's total set at 15% [13] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

The offset program and the 2.5-times quota reward firms that build in the US [1][3]; Taiwan's suppliers with US plants could gain share. A clear rate would end the doubt over phase two.

Connected in Strature

Sources

13 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Proclamation 11002, Adjusting Imports of Semiconductors, Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment, and Their Derivative Products Into the United States. Federal Register · 20 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. Adjusting Imports of Semiconductors, Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment, and Their Derivative Products Into the United States. The White House · 14 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Fact Sheet: Trump Administration secures trade agreement with Taiwan (bulletin). U.S. Department of Commerce · 15 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. Fact Sheet: U.S.-Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative · 2026-02 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287 (slip opinion, syllabus). Supreme Court of the United States · 20 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. CSMS: Ending Collection of International Emergency Economic Powers Act Duties. U.S. Customs and Border Protection · 22 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations of Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies (91 FR 47318). Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Federal Register · 28 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Annual External Trade Report in 2025 (English edition). Ministry of Finance (Taiwan), Department of Statistics · 23 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. 3Q26 Quarterly Management Report. TSMC · 15 Oct 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Taiwan's September exports hit a monthly record (CNA). Focus Taiwan · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Taiwan key for rare earths: think tank. Taipei Times · 11 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Federal Register documents search: presidential documents, semiconductors section 232, from 2026-01-21. Federal Register · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. Proclamation 11052, Adjusting Imports of Polysilicon and Its Derivatives Into the United States. Federal Register · 11 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks