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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · US trade & foreign policy

The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the US general additional duty on most Swiss goods reaches 20% or more for at least one day, or the Section 232 rate on Swiss patented medicines rises above 15%.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth5
Duration6
Hard to substitute5
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. ECB reference rates 23 Oct 2026: USD 1.1193 and CHF 0.9227 per euro [10]
  2. September 2026 exports to the US CHF 3.32bn, up 8.5% on August, after a fall of almost 30% in August [6]
  3. Canada imported C$10.36bn from Switzerland in 2025, 20% medicines (HS 30) [9]
  4. August 2026 exports down 17.2%, driven by chemicals and pharma [7]

Why it matters

Since 24 July 2026 most Swiss goods have paid a US duty of up to 12.5% in all, and Swiss patented medicines pay at most 15%. A second US Section 301 investigation, on industrial overcapacity, opened on 11 March 2026 and its findings are not yet published. Switzerland sold CHF 54.7bn of goods to the US in 2025; no Canadian loss follows from a rise.

Why Likelihood 4 The overcapacity Section 301 case is open. Pushes: that probe, clause 3(f) on drugs, arms-licence friction. Brakes: rate set three months ago, IEEPA closed, talks continue.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case a 20% general rate or a drug rate a little above 15%.

The other facts on file (6)
  • Section 301 duty of up to 12.5% all-in on Swiss goods from 24 Jul 2026, MFN credited; pharmaceuticals, gold and civil aircraft exempt; Section 122 surcharge expired 24 Jul; overcapacity investigation opened 11 Mar 2026, results not published; binding agreement still pursued [1] (17 Aug 2026)
  • economiesuisse rejects forced-labour allegation; says Swiss firms disadvantaged against EU and UK; US currently adhering to the November 15% cap [2] (24 Jul 2026)
  • Section 232 drug proclamation: 15% for Switzerland and Liechtenstein jointly; clause 3(f) allows a rise; duties from 31 Jul and 29 Sep 2026 [3] (2 Apr 2026)
  • Swiss goods faced 39% in 2025; ceiling cut to 15% with retroactive effect from 14 Nov 2025 (economiesuisse, 10 Dec 2025); Supreme Court ruled on 20 Feb 2026 that IEEPA does not support general tariffs [4] (10 Dec 2025)
  • Swiss exports 2025 CHF 287.0bn; to the US CHF 54.7bn, up 3.9%; chemicals and pharma CHF 152bn, 53% of exports [5] (29 Jan 2026)
  • Switzerland halted new war-materiel export licences to countries in the Iran conflict, including the US, on 20 Mar 2026; US bought CHF 94.2m the year before [8] (20 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

11. The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines: Elevated impact · possibleWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESGULF OF MEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the US general additional duty on most Swiss goods reaches 20% or more for at least one day, or the Section 232 rate on Swiss patented medicines rises above 15%.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced; Canada's C$10.36bn of imports from Switzerland in 2025 [9] are not touched by a US duty.
  2. Swiss exportersNon-exempt goods lose ground to EU and UK suppliers that already pay less.
  3. PharmaceuticalsA drug rate above 15% [3] hits the sector that made 53% of Swiss exports in 2025 [5] and adds onshoring pressure [3].

Countries 4

Who is exposed

Countries
Switzerland, Liechtenstein, United States

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    The deal is signed

    A binding agreement fixes the general rate at or below 15%.

  2. S2

    Status quo

    The 12.5% rate and the 15% drug rate hold while talks go on.

  3. S3

    The rate jumps

    The overcapacity probe ends in an added duty, or the drug rate is raised under clause 3(f).

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A signed text or a Federal Council dispatch to parliament
S2No US notice on the overcapacity probe by 24 July 2027
S3USTR publishes findings or proposed action

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 BAZG foreign-trade figures for October 2026 [11] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 2 Apr 2027 Commerce Secretary to inform the President on generic drugs; no published report required [3] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 20 Jan 2029 Zero drug rate for firms with pricing deals ends [3] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SWITZERLAND · strature.net

The other side

The 12.5% rate [1] is far below the 39% of 2025 [4], and the 15% drug rate is far below the 100% default [3]. A binding deal would give Swiss exporters a fixed rate; Canadian firms that compete with Swiss machinery in the US face no new cost from this risk.

Connected in Strature

Sources

11 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Handelsbeziehung Schweiz-USA. SECO · no update date shown (latest item 2026-08-17) · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. 12.5 percent US tariffs: uncertainty persists for Swiss companies. economiesuisse · 24 Jul 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Adjusting Imports of Pharmaceuticals and Pharmaceutical Ingredients into the United States. The White House · 2 Apr 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. US tariffs of 15 percent come into force retroactively (with Switzerland dossier rows cap-9 and gf5-1). economiesuisse; Strature library · 10 Dec 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Schweizer Exporte erreichen 2025 dank Chemie und Pharma Rekord. swissinfo.ch (Keystone-SDA, citing BAZG) · 29 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Schweizer Aussenhandel, 20. Oktober 2026. plattformj.ch (citing BAZG) · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. August 2026: Chemie-Pharma zieht Aussenhandel tief ins Minus. BAZG · 17 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Switzerland announces halt to weapons exports to US amid Iran war. Al Jazeera · 20 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Switzerland dossier, rows CHE-us-tariffs-canada-cap-7 and cap-10 (Statistics Canada CIMT 2025). Strature library · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Euro foreign exchange reference rates. European Central Bank · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Medienmitteilungen Aussenhandelsstatistik. BAZG · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks