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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · US trade & foreign policy

The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the US puts in force a tariff on most goods of Vietnam (all products, with listed exemptions) under a Section 301 case other than the forced-labour action of 28 Jul 2026.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth2
Duration6
Hard to substitute5
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Section 304(a)(3): 6-month deadline, 9 months if extended; other cases 12 months [3]
  2. No determination or extension notice in the IP or excess-capacity cases to 28 Oct 2026 [9]
  3. Vietnam's Foreign Ministry reported Greer as saying very close to a final outcome; To Lam asks a comprehensive approach covering Section 301 cases [8]

Why it matters

Vietnamese goods have paid a US Section 301 duty of 12.5% since 24 Jul 2026. Two more Section 301 cases name Vietnam: excess capacity (opened 11 Mar 2026) and intellectual property (opened 29 May 2026, after USTR named Vietnam the only Priority Foreign Country). The IP case must be decided by late November 2026, or late February 2027 if extended. Vietnam's Foreign Ministry reported Greer as saying on 21 Sep that a deal was very close to a final outcome.

Why Likelihood 4 B: the statute sets the IP decision date (about 29 Nov 2026, or 28 Feb 2027 if extended) inside the window. D: both investigations opened by notice.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case: a small second duty on most Vietnamese goods.

The other facts on file (7)
  • USTR named Vietnam the only Priority Foreign Country in the 2026 Special 301 Report [1] (30 Apr 2026)
  • IP Section 301 investigation opened 29 May 2026 (docket USTR-2026-0364); comments asked on tariff and non-tariff actions; decision within 6 months, extendable by 3 [2] (3 Jun 2026)
  • Excess-capacity Section 301 investigations opened 11 Mar 2026 into 16 economies, Vietnam among them; 2025 bilateral surplus US$178bn; cement overcapacity named [4] (17 Mar 2026)
  • Forced-labour Section 301 duty of 12.5% on Vietnamese goods from 24 Jul 2026, with exemptions [5] (28 Jul 2026)
  • Forced-labour cases: determinations of 2 Jun 2026, published 5 Jun, under three months after opening [6] (5 Jun 2026)
  • US-ASEAN Business Council (Le Nguyen, Bao Pham): substantial tariffs more likely than in past cases [7] (6 Apr 2026)
  • Vietnam's exports to the US up 28.1% in 2025; electronics over US$42bn [11] (2025)

Where it sits

11. The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods: Elevated impact · possibleWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESGULF OF MEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the US puts in force a tariff on most goods of Vietnam (all products, with listed exemptions) under a Section 301 case other than the forced-labour action of 28 Jul 2026.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced; Canada could gain some US orders.
  2. Vietnamese exportersA second duty would stack on the 12.5% [5] for electronics, machinery, apparel and furniture [7].
  3. The dealA Section 301 duty may be the tool that carries the framework's 20% rate [8] (Strature's view, on [7][8]).

Sectors 1

  • Technology

Countries 3

Who is exposed

Countries
Vietnam, United States
Sectors
Technology
Goods
Electronics, Machinery, Apparel, Furniture, Cement

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Deal first

    A signed agreement settles the open cases; the 12.5% stays the only Section 301 charge.

  2. S2

    Deal by tariff

    USTR finds against Vietnam in the excess-capacity case and sets a duty near the framework rate.

  3. S3

    IP penalty

    USTR acts in the IP case with a duty on most goods or a narrower list.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A signing date announced by both governments
S2A determination notice by March 2027
S3A determination by 29 Nov 2026 or an extension notice

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 29 Nov 2026 Six-month deadline for the IP determination [2] Declared · Window

    Remind me

  2. 28 Feb 2027 Nine-month deadline if USTR extends the IP case [3] Tentative · Window

    Remind me

  3. 11 Mar 2027 About 12 months since the excess-capacity cases opened [4] Tentative · Window

    Remind me

  4. 30 Apr 2027 Next Special 301 Report [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · VIETNAM · strature.net

The other side

A deal that closes the IP and excess-capacity cases would give Vietnamese exporters a fixed rate and remove two open threats. Stronger enforcement against piracy and counterfeits would help firms that license brands and software in Vietnam.

Connected in Strature

Sources

10 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. USTR Releases 2026 Special 301 Report on Intellectual Property Protection and Enforcement. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative · 30 Apr 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. Initiation of Section 301 Investigation: Vietnam's Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Intellectual Property Protection and Enforcement (2026-11043). USTR, Federal Register · 3 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. 19 U.S. Code 2414, Determinations by Trade Representative. Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School (a reproduction of the US Code) · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. Initiation of Section 301 Investigations: Structural Excess Capacity and Production in Manufacturing Sectors (2026-05214). USTR, Federal Register · 17 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations (forced labor import prohibitions), 2026-15181. USTR, Federal Register · 28 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. Notice of Determinations, Section 301 forced-labor investigations (2026-11296). USTR, Federal Register · 5 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Section 301 Returns as a Tariff Tool After IEEPA Ruling: Implications for Vietnam. US-ASEAN Business Council · 6 Apr 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  8. Vietnam-US trade deal 'very close' to final outcome. The Investor · 22 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  9. Federal Register search: USTR documents with the term Vietnam, from 1 Mar 2026. Federal Register · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  10. Vietnam's exports to US jump 28.1% in 2025 on electronics surge. VOV, via the Ho Chi Minh City Investment and Trade Promotion Centre portal · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks