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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · Critical minerals

The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper from Chile

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, a new US import duty of 10% or more on refined copper cathodes (HS 7403) that applies to shipments from Chile takes effect, under Section 232 or any other US measure (the 1% normal rate does not count).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
6Elevated steady this month
Breadth7
Depth4
Duration7
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Commerce delivered its update by 30 Jun 2026; no final decision; two people familiar with the matter cited affordability concerns before the midterms [2]

Why it matters

Refined copper cathodes are Chile's main export to the US, and they pay none of the added US tariffs, only the 1% normal rate. A July 2025 proclamation set out a possible duty of 15% on refined copper from 1 Jan 2027 and 30% from 2028. The White House has not decided; on 10 Sep 2026 people familiar with the matter cited worries about costs before the November midterms. Copper futures priced a low chance of the 2027 step in August.

Why Likelihood 4 C no: Comex-LME implied odds for the January 2027 step lean against. Pushes: the duty and dates are named; Commerce delivered its update; Societe Generale sees growing US concern; the window runs past the midterms.

Why Impact 6 Threshold case: a 10% duty on Chilean cathodes in force. Canada: one channel, no sourced loss figure.

The other facts on file (8)
  • Proclamation 10962 (30 Jul 2025): 50% duty on semi-finished copper; cathodes excluded; Commerce to report by 30 Jun 2026 on 15% from 1 Jan 2027 and 30% from 2028 [1] (30 Jul 2025)
  • Comex-LME premium implied 14.6% odds of 15% from Jan 2027 and 37% of 30% from Jan 2028 (Societe Generale) [3] (14 Aug 2026)
  • CME price fell 21% when cathodes were excluded; forward arbitrage about US$660/t for July 2028 [4] (6 Aug 2025)
  • US refined copper imports 1,700 kt in 2025 (903 kt in 2024); Chile 68%, Canada 16%, Peru 7%, Mexico 6% of refined imports 2021-24; stocks about 450 kt [5] (Feb 2026)
  • 12.5% US duty on Chile from July 2026; refined cathodes among 14 exempt products, over half of US imports from Chile by value [6] (24 Jul 2026)
  • Chile's copper exports to the US US$5,610m (refined US$5,608m) in 2024, 11.1% of copper exports [7] (Jul 2025)
  • Chile's exports a record US$107.004bn in 2025 [8] (Jan 2026)
  • US goods imports from Chile US$19.0bn in 2025 [9] (2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper from Chile: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitCHINAKAZAKHSTANAUSTRALIARUSSIAUNITED STATESCHILEPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper from Chile: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitCHINAKAZAKHSTANAUSTRALIARUSSIAUNITED STATESCHILEMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, a new US import duty of 10% or more on refined copper cathodes (HS 7403) that applies to shipments from Chile takes effect, under Section 232 or any other US measure (the 1% normal rate does not count).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaCanada supplied 16% of US refined copper imports; a universal duty taxes them too [5].
  2. Chile's copper earningsUS-bound cathodes face the duty or need new buyers [7][8].
  3. US prices and buyersUS refinery output of about 850 kt in 2025 covers about half of reported use of 1,700 kt; buyers pay the duty [5].
  4. Trade flowsA last rush into the US, then Chilean cargoes turn to Asia and Europe (Strature's view).

Sectors 1

  • Mining and metals

Countries 5

Who is exposed

Countries
Chile, Canada, Peru, Mexico, United States
Sectors
Mining and metals

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Shelved

    The White House keeps cathodes out and the Comex premium closes.

  2. S2

    Delayed step

    The duty is announced for 2028 only, outside the window.

  3. S3

    On time

    A proclamation sets 15% from 1 Jan 2027.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A statement or proclamation keeping the exclusion after the midterms
S2A proclamation naming a 2028 start
S3A Federal Register notice in Nov or Dec 2026

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections [2] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 1 Jan 2027 Proposed start of a 15% duty on refined copper [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  4. 1 Jan 2028 Proposed step to 30% (outside the window) [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Without a duty, Chile keeps selling into a US market priced above the LME [4]. With one, cathodes freed from the US could go to Asian and European buyers at an easier LME price [3][4]. El Mercurio, reposted by the mining council, reported on 31 Jul 2025 that Chilean copper was spared at least until 2027 [10].

Connected in Strature

Sources

10 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Proclamation 10962: Adjusting Imports of Copper into the United States. Federal Register (The White House) · 5 Aug 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. White House copper tariff plan stalls amid affordability concerns, sources say. Reuters via Kitco · 10 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. El mercado asigna un 37% de probabilidad a un arancel de 30% al cobre refinado en EEUU desde 2028. Diario Financiero · 14 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. Arbitrage opens on copper forward curve after White House hints at phased-in copper cathode tariff. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence · 6 Aug 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Copper. U.S. Geological Survey · 2026-02 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. ¿Por qué algunos productos mineros están exentos del nuevo arancel de EE.UU. a Chile?. Reporte Minero · 24 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Boletín OCEC-UDP 35. Observatorio de Comercio Exterior, Universidad Diego Portales · 2025-07 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  8. Chile sets record year in 2025, with shipments over US$107 billion. DataMar News · 2026-01 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  9. Chile (country page). Office of the United States Trade Representative · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  10. Washington excluye al cobre chileno de todo arancel al menos hasta 2027. Consejo Minero · 31 Jul 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks