World risks / Also watching
Critical minerals
6 risks have this as their main hotspot, and 1 more is listed here. The strongest: The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper from Chile (Elevated impact · possible).
This page answers: Which risks gather in this hotspot, and how strong is each one?
Using this page
- Read each circle: its size shows Impact, its colour shows this month's trend.
- Read Likelihood in words beside each risk in the list.
- Click a circle or a risk to open its own page.
- Lens
- Geoeconomics
- This month
- ▶ steady
- Status
- Not under way
- Reviewed
- 28 Oct 2026
Circle size · ImpactlowelevatedhighColour · this monthrisingsteadyfallingcrimson ring: under waymain lane, schematicchokepoint
A theme hotspot has no single place: the map hatches and names its main countries, and draws each risk on the country it starts in.
Source · Strature risk cards with this main hotspot · Map data: Natural Earth (public domain). · lanes schematic · places approximateData as of 31 Oct 2026
Risks in this hotspot Strongest first; Impact and Likelihood in words
- The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper from ChileElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
- The iron ore price averages below US$80 a tonne for a monthElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
- Kazakhstan's uranium output for 2026 falls short of its targetElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady
- Russia halts enriched uranium shipments to the US before the US ban takes full effectElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady
- A month-long stop in EU copper smelting or refiningLow impact · possible · ▶ steady
- A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine for a week or moreLow impact · possible · ▶ steady
Also listed here risks whose main hotspot is another
- A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel outputElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady