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World risks / Hotspot 1

Red Sea & Bab el-Mandeb

8 risks have this as their main hotspot. The strongest: The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal (High impact · under way).

This page answers: Which risks gather in this hotspot, and how strong is each one?

Using this page
  1. Read each circle: its size shows Impact, its colour shows this month's trend.
  2. Read Likelihood in words beside each risk in the list.
  3. Click a circle or a risk to open its own page.
Lens
Security
This month
▲ rising
Status
Under way · acute
Reviewed
28 Oct 2026
Region
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzSuez Canal11. The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal: High impact · under way22. Another Arab or African state cuts diplomatic ties with the UAE: Elevated impact · possible33. Pakistani forces fight the Houthis in Yemen: Elevated impact · possible88. An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-Mandeb: Low impact · unlikely55. French forces sent to guard Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil port at Yanbu are hit: Low impact · possible66. UK forces are drawn into combat with the Houthis: Low impact · possible77. A Houthi strike cuts power or water to a Saudi city for two days: Low impact · possible44. A Houthi attack hits Egypt or Egyptian forces: Low impact · possible1 · High impact · under way8 · Low impact · unlikely2 · Elevated impact · possible3 · Elevated impact · possible5 · Low impact · possible6 · Low impact · possible7 · Low impact · possible4 · Low impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzSuez CanalJizanJeddahUAEEGYPTERITREAETHIOPIAIRANOMANSAUDI ARABIASUDANYEMENRED SEA0500 kmat 20°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-Mandeb11. The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal: High impact · under way22. Another Arab or African state cuts diplomatic ties with the UAE: Elevated impact · possible33. Pakistani forces fight the Houthis in Yemen: Elevated impact · possible88. An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-Mandeb: Low impact · unlikely55. French forces sent to guard Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil port at Yanbu are hit: Low impact · possible66. UK forces are drawn into combat with the Houthis: Low impact · possible77. A Houthi strike cuts power or water to a Saudi city for two days: Low impact · possible44. A Houthi attack hits Egypt or Egyptian forces: Low impact · possibleBab el-MandebJeddahERITREAETHIOPIASAUDI ARABIASUDANYEMENRED SEATHE GULF0300 kmat 20°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
The strait
Bab el-Mandeb11. The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal: High impact · under way88. An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-Mandeb: Low impact · unlikely1 · High impact · under way8 · Low impact · unlikelyHodeidahMocha (Mokha)DhubabAdenAssabDjiboutiDJIBOUTIERITREAETHIOPIAYEMENGULF OF ADEN050 kmat 12.5°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-Mandeb11. The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal: High impact · under way88. An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-Mandeb: Low impact · unlikelyHodeidahMocha (Mokha)DhubabAdenDjiboutiDJIBOUTIERITREAETHIOPIAYEMENGULF OF ADEN050 kmat 12.5°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Circle size · ImpactlowelevatedhighColour · this monthrisingsteadyfallingcrimson ring: under waymain lane, schematicchokepoint

Source · Strature risk cards with this main hotspot · Map data: Natural Earth (public domain). · lanes schematic · places approximateData as of 31 Oct 2026

Risks in this hotspot Strongest first; Impact and Likelihood in words

  3. Pakistani forces fight the Houthis in YemenElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  4. A Houthi attack hits Egypt or Egyptian forcesLow impact · possible · ▲ rising
  6. UK forces are drawn into combat with the HouthisLow impact · possible · ▲ rising
  8. An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-MandebLow impact · unlikely · ▶ steady