An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-Mandeb
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, an Italian Navy ship in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb or the Gulf of Aden is struck by a missile, drone or boat attack, as confirmed by the Italian government or by EUNAVFOR Aspides.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- UN envoy: after a counter-offensive the government reported retaking areas around the Bab al-Mandab [12]
- Kallas: Aspides needs more than 10 warships; six deployed; Crosetto (reported): contributions still not enough to guarantee safe passage of merchant vessels [6]
- Italy's Aspides assets: Bergamini (167 crew), minesweepers Rimini and Crotone; 269 personnel; no other Italian Navy ships in the area [4]
- Ministry told the chief of defence staff to prepare a plan for vessels of national interest, including whether a new parliamentary vote is needed [5]
- Aspides authorised the Bergamini to escort the Jolly Oro (Ignazio Messina) northbound through the strait [5]
- Houthis took Mokha in early September and then Perim inside the strait [7]
Show 3 earlier changes
- Houthis took Mayyun (Perim) island on 11 Sep 2026 and hold Yemen's whole western Red Sea coast [1]
- Tajani: no escalation; Navy ships have already responded several times to attacks from Houthi-held territory (no dates); about 40% of Italy's commercial maritime traffic passes through the Red Sea [3]
- Crosetto: Italy decided not to wait for Aspides to decide whether ships can pass [2]
Why it matters
Italy decided on 17 Sep 2026 not to wait for the EU's Aspides mission and to see its merchant ships through Bab el-Mandeb itself. The next day its frigate Carlo Bergamini escorted the Jolly Oro north through the strait, past a coast the Houthis seized in September; the government reported in early October that it had retaken areas around the strait. Italian warships shot down Houthi drones in 2024, and no hit on an Italian ship has been reported; a hit would test Italy's will to stay in the Red Sea, the route for about 40% of its commercial maritime traffic by its foreign minister's count.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: escorts since 18 Sep 2026 past a coast the Houthis seized, contested since early October; Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia; a mission short of ships. Brakes: no hit on an Italian ship reported, the Houthis' stated wish not to fight Italy, a defensive posture, 2024 shoot-downs.
Why Impact 3 Key measure Italian commercial maritime traffic on the route (about 40%, Tajani).
The other facts on file (4)
- Council extended the Aspides mandate to 28 Feb 2027 [11] (23 Feb 2026)
- Duilio shot down a Houthi drone around 2 Mar 2024 [8] (5 Mar 2024)
- Fasan shot down drones on 29 Apr and 6 May 2024; no hit on Italian ships reported [9] (8 May 2024)
- Houthi media official: the group does not target Italy as such, but Italy getting in the way would leave it no other choice [10] (9 Mar 2024)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, an Italian Navy ship in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb or the Gulf of Aden is struck by a missile, drone or boat attack, as confirmed by the Italian government or by EUNAVFOR Aspides.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced.
- Italy's missionA hit puts national escorts and any new parliamentary vote at the centre of politics; Italy could reinforce or withdraw.
- ShippingItalian carriers relying on escorts could stop using the route (Strature's view); Crosetto warned delays raise prices.
- The EU missionAspides, short of ships [6], faces renewal before 28 Feb 2027 [11].
Sectors 2
- Ports and logistics
- Energy and pipelines
Straits 2
- Bab el-Mandeb
- Suez
Countries 5
- Italy primary
- Yemen primary
- Saudi Arabia
- Djibouti
- European Union
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Italy, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti
- Sectors
- Ports and logistics, Energy and pipelines
- Straits
- Bab el-Mandeb, Suez
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Escorts without fire
Italian escorts continue and the Houthis avoid Italian ships, as their 2024 statement suggests.
- S2
Shot at, not hit
Drones are fired at an escort and shot down, as in 2024.
- S3
A hit
A drone or missile strikes an Italian ship; Rome reinforces or pulls back.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A second Italian frigate sent |
| S2 | An Aspides or Italian report of an attack on an escort |
| S3 | The Aspides renewal by 28 Feb 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
Italy's escorts keep a route open for Italian and European shippers, and show the EU's slow mission can be filled by willing members. If they work, Italian ports gain from Suez traffic that returns.
Connected in Strature
- Bab el-Mandeb
- Italy
- Yemen
- Saudi Arabia
- Djibouti
- European Union
- The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal Driven by: The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping; this card is the narrower Italian case.
- French forces sent to guard Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil port at Yanbu are hit Shares a channel: Another EU navy in the same strait.
Sources
12 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Italy to deploy warships to protect shipping through Bab al-Mandeb. Al Jazeera · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Crosetto: Le navi italiane potranno passare dallo Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb. LaPresse · 17 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Crosetto, missione Aspides: navi Ue e seconda fregata. Open · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Military vessels deployed, responsibilities, figures relating to Italy's contribution to the EU Aspides mission. Il Sole 24 Ore · 19 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Italy weighs pulling Red Sea warships from EU command as Rome hits out at Brussels bureaucracy. Brussels Signal · 22 Sep 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EU's Red Sea naval contributions still not enough, Italy says. Baird Maritime (Reuters) · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Italy openly pulls rank on Brussels, saying its ships won't wait for the EU. EU Perspectives · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Attack on warship shows seriousness of Houthi threat: Tajani. ANSA English · 5 Mar 2024 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- From Duilio to Fasan: Italian ships shot down Houthi drones. Il Sole 24 Ore · 8 May 2024 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- If Italy gets in our way we will act accordingly: Houthis. ANSA English · 10 Mar 2024 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Red Sea: Council extends the mandate of Operation ASPIDES to safeguard freedom of navigation. European Commission, DG Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf (reporting the Council decision) · 23 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Briefing by the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, to the Security Council. Office of the UN Special Envoy for Yemen · 9 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks