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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · US trade & foreign policy

The WTO adopts no reform of dispute settlement or decision-making by 25 Oct 2027

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the WTO General Council or a Ministerial Conference adopts no decision that changes dispute settlement (an appeal stage restored or the DSU amended) or decision-making rules; a procedural work programme does not count.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
7High steady this month
Impact
6Elevated steady this month
Breadth7
Depth2
Duration7
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. US 10% Section 122 surcharge from 20 Feb 2026 ended 24 Jul; review concluded 12 Oct 2026. [2]
  2. WTO forecasts merchandise trade volume growth of 3.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. [6]
  3. General Council of 5-6 Oct 2026: nearly 60 speakers on reform; MC15 dates not fixed; next GC tentatively 11 and 14 Dec 2026. [1]
  4. For the 100th time, members could not launch Appellate Body selection: Colombia tabled the 130-member proposal and the US does not support it. [9]

Why it matters

The WTO's appeal court has been out of action since December 2019, and on 25 September 2026, for the 100th time, members could not start filling it because the US does not support the proposal. MC14 adopted no reform work programme and let the e-commerce moratorium lapse. The General Council took up reform again on 5-6 October 2026, still on process rather than substance.

Why Likelihood 7 The base case of most sources: the US has blocked Appellate Body selection 100 times (25 Sep 2026), MC14 closed without reform, and MC15 has no date. Not 8 while the Chair and facilitators negotiate and the US says it leads on reform.

Why Impact 6 Threshold case: twelve more months of the status quo. No measured price or flow loss; the MPIA covers 60 of 166 members and not the US. Mean (7 + 2 + 7 + 6) / 4 = 5.5.

The other facts on file (3)
  • MC14 closed on 30 Mar 2026 with no fundamental policy decisions on reform and no joint work programme. [4] (30 Mar 2026)
  • USTR said Brazil and Turkiye blocked extending the e-commerce moratorium to 31 Dec 2030; Greer said the WTO will play only a limited role. [3] (30 Mar 2026)
  • The MPIA covers 60 of the WTO's 166 members, including Canada, China and the EU, not the US. [7] (17 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

11. The WTO adopts no reform of dispute settlement or decision-making by 25 Oct 2027: Elevated impact · likely1 · Elevated impact · likelyOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. The WTO adopts no reform of dispute settlement or decision-making by 25 Oct 2027: Elevated impact · likelyWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESGULF OF MEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the WTO General Council or a Ministerial Conference adopts no decision that changes dispute settlement (an appeal stage restored or the DSU amended) or decision-making rules; a procedural work programme does not count.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaAppeals via the MPIA [7] except against the US; CUSMA carries US disputes.
    More

    No sourced Canadian loss.

  2. EnforcementPanel reports can be appealed into the void outside the MPIA.
  3. Tariff rulesUnilateral measures face review but no binding check.
  4. Digital tradeDuties on electronic transmissions are legal for non-signatories; 66 members [8] move the e-commerce agreement partly outside the WTO.

Sectors 2

  • Agriculture and food
  • Technology

Who is exposed

Countries
Canada, Switzerland, Brazil, New Zealand, United States, China, European Union
Sectors
Agriculture and food, Technology

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Slow drift

    Meetings on formats continue; no decision by the December General Council.

  2. S2

    A partial deal

    Members adopt a narrow dispute settlement or decision-making decision before MC15.

  3. S3

    Fragmentation

    The US moves trade policy to plurilateral deals outside the WTO.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The 11 and 14 Dec 2026 General Council ends without a reform text
S2The DSB Chair tables a draft decision in 2027
S3A US e-commerce moratorium agreement signed outside the WTO

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 11 Dec 2026 General Council (reform, MC14 follow-up), continues 14 Dec [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Plurilateral deals move faster: the e-commerce agreement [8] and the investment facilitation agreement, with 131 participating members [1], give Canada and other open economies rules without waiting for consensus. A stalled WTO also gives room to regional agreements such as CUSMA and CPTPP.

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. General Council addresses WTO reform, ministerial follow-ups, ongoing negotiations. World Trade Organization · 5 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. WTO members conclude review of US import surcharges following removal of measure. World Trade Organization · 12 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Press Release Regarding the WTO's 14th Ministerial Conference. Office of the US Trade Representative · 30 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. MC14 closes in Yaounde (press release). Swiss Federal Council · 30 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Global trade outlook, October 2026 (press release). World Trade Organization · 8 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. The MPIA. WTO Plurilaterals · 17 Mar 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Digital divide splits another WTO ministerial. Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives · 31 Mar 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Panel to review EU carbon border adjustment mechanism and emissions trading scheme (DSB meeting of 25 September 2026). World Trade Organization · 25 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks