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World risk · Energy and resources · US trade & foreign policy

Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada

The test Over the twelve months 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Sep 2027, Canada's share of US crude oil imports (EIA) is lower than in the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026 while Venezuela's share is higher (F-0177's test; the base period is Strature's reading of the register wording).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration5
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Weekly imports to 16 Oct 2026: Venezuela 455-782 kb/d, Canada 3,252-4,352 kb/d over six weeks [3]
  2. 87.4% of Canada's crude exports went to the US in Jan-Jun 2026 [8]
  3. Landed cost July 2026 (preliminary): Canada USD 75.34/bbl, Venezuela USD 71.28/bbl; Venezuela above Canada in Mar-Jun 2026 [4]
  4. US crude imports from Venezuela: 231 (Feb), 373, 429, 471, 630, 701 (Jul 2026) kb/d [1]
  5. US crude imports from Venezuela 140 kb/d in 2025, 228 in 2024; total 6,168 kb/d in 2025, Canada 3,910 [2]
  6. July 2026: Canada 4,155 of 6,224 kb/d (66.8%), June 4,112 of 6,044 (68.0%); Venezuela 11.3% in July (Strature calculation) [1]
  7. 2024: Canada 4,062 of 6,588 kb/d (61.7%), Venezuela 228 (3.5%); 2023: Canada 3,885 of 6,489 (59.9%), Venezuela 132 (2.0%) (Strature calculation) [2]

Why it matters

US imports of Venezuelan crude rose from 231,000 barrels a day in February 2026 to 701,000 in July, after Washington licensed US firms to trade it. Canada still supplied 66.8% of US crude imports in July, up from 63.4% in 2025, because other imports fell faster (Strature calculation from EIA). The event needs both shares to move: Canada's down, Venezuela's up. Strature's register puts it at 40% (Strature forecast F-0177, 1 Oct 2026).

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: Venezuelan imports tripled Feb-Jul 2026; licences in force; lower landed cost in July only (preliminary); Gulf Coast refinery fit. Brakes: Venezuela's comparison base already holds high months; Trans Mountain near full keeps Canadian barrels US-bound.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: a one-point share loss, about 62 kb/d.

The other facts on file (3)
  • OFAC GL 46 (29 Jan 2026) authorises established US entities to trade Venezuelan oil; payments to US Treasury accounts under EO 14373 [5] (2 Feb 2026)
  • OFAC GL 52 (18 Mar 2026) adds new investment and joint ventures [6] (26 Mar 2026)
  • Trans Mountain ran at 85% of capacity in 2025 [9] (24 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

11. Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleWashingtonOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada: Elevated impact · possibleWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESGULF OF MEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Over the twelve months 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Sep 2027, Canada's share of US crude oil imports (EIA) is lower than in the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026 while Venezuela's share is higher (F-0177's test; the base period is Strature's reading of the register wording).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaStrengthens the case for non-US routes such as Pacific Link, listed on 1 Oct 2026 [11].
  2. Canadian crude pricesMore heavy barrels in the US Gulf Coast would add competition for Canadian heavy crude (Strature's view; not a price forecast).
  3. TradeCanada's July crude into the US was worth about USD 313m a day (Strature calculation from EIA [1][4]); one share point is about 62 kb/d (Strature calculation from [1]).
  4. PolicyThe shift rests on US licences Washington can widen or revoke [5][6].

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Energy and pipelines
  • Ports and logistics

Countries 4

Who is exposed

Countries
Canada, Venezuela, United States, Mexico
Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
Goods
Crude oil

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Displacement

    Venezuelan output and US licences grow; Gulf Coast refiners swap Canadian heavy barrels for Venezuelan ones.

  2. S2

    Both rise

    Other suppliers keep falling, so Canada's share holds while Venezuela's rises.

  3. S3

    Licence reversal

    Washington narrows the licences and Venezuelan volumes fall back.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Monthly Venezuelan imports above 700 kb/d with Canada's share below 64%
S2Total US crude imports stay below 6.3 mb/d
S3OFAC revokes or narrows GL 46 or GL 52

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

40%F-0177 · Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian crude in US refineries
Strature forecast F-0177: 40% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
050100%

Where the card uses it F-0177's twelve-month window ends. Strature forecast F-0177: 40% (1 Oct 2026)

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 30 Sep 2027 F-0177's twelve-month window ends. Strature forecast F-0177: 40% (1 Oct 2026) [7] Declared · Strature date

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

If Canadian heavy barrels lose US share, those that move to Asia through Trans Mountain [9] earn a non-US market. Canada already sent 12.7% of its crude exports beyond the US in the twelve months to July 2026, up from 8.5% a year earlier [12].

Connected in Strature

Sources

11 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. U.S. imports by country of origin, crude oil, monthly. EIA · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. U.S. imports by country of origin, crude oil, annual. EIA · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Weekly U.S. imports of crude oil by country. EIA · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Landed costs of imported crude by area. EIA · 1 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. OFAC issues new general license authorizing established US companies to engage in trade of Venezuelan oil. Mayer Brown · 2 Feb 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. OFAC Issues Broad Authorizations for Dealings with PdVSA. Pillsbury (JD Supra) · 26 Mar 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Forecast register F-0177 and C-006 Edition 1.6. Strature · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Table 25-10-0063-01, crude oil exports by destination. Statistics Canada · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  9. Market Snapshot: Oil pipeline throughputs remained high in 2025. Canada Energy Regulator · 24 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Order Amending Schedule 1 to the Building Canada Act (P.C. 2026-925). Canada Gazette, Part I · 10 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Table 25-10-0086-01, as cited in Strature T-001. Statistics Canada · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks