Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · US trade & foreign policy

US duties on Canadian softwood lumber stay above 30% through October 2027

The test From 25 Oct 2026 to 31 Oct 2027, the combined US duty on softwood lumber from Canada's non-selected mills (anti-dumping plus countervailing cash deposit rates plus the Section 232 tariff) stays above 30% without a break.

Under way · Confidence: high · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
9Severe steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration7
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Prior all-others combined AD/CVD rate 35.16% (AR6 amended, 11 Sep 2025); new combined 24.75% [5]
  2. Final 2024 anti-dumping review: 10.64% for 220 non-selected companies; cash deposits from 19 Oct 2026 [1]
  3. Final 2024 countervailing rates: Resolute 12.42%, West Fraser 15.31%, 14.11% for 215 named non-selected companies (the all-others rate stays 14.19%) [2]
  4. Eighth review (2025) initiated 9 Mar 2026; respondents chosen April-May 2026; seventh review ran from Feb 2025 to Oct 2026; NAFTA Chapter 19 panel affirmed CVD remand on 5 Oct 2026 [4]

Why it matters

On 19 Oct 2026 the US cut the anti-dumping and countervailing duties for most Canadian softwood mills to a combined 24.75%, down from 35.16%. With the 10% Section 232 tariff on top, those mills still pay about 34.75% (Strature calculation). The next review has no result date, and Canada suspended trade talks with the US in August.

Why Likelihood 9 Pushes: no eighth-review date; preliminary results do not take effect; Section 232 has no end date. Brakes: only 4.75 points above the line; the eighth review or a deal could cut it. Not 10: the eighth review could land inside the window.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case the stack persists at about 34.75%. Canada hit on one channel only.

The other facts on file (4)
  • Section 232: 10% on softwood timber and lumber since 14 Oct 2025, in addition to other duties; rises in upholstered furniture to 30% and in kitchen cabinets and vanities to 50% delayed to 1 Jan 2027 [3] (9 Jan 2026)
  • Canada about 71% of US softwood lumber imports, about US$4.5bn in 2025; sawmill employment down about 20% May 2017-Nov 2025; forestry 21% of jobs in Quesnel and 13% in Dolbeau-Mistassini (2021 Census); the US sources roughly 30% of its lumber consumption from imports [6] (25 Feb 2026)
  • C$60m federal loan to a Quebec sawmill group (8 plants, nearly 800 staff) from the C$10bn LETL facility [7] (28 Jul 2026)
  • Canada suspended trade negotiations with the US [8] (25 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

11. US duties on Canadian softwood lumber stay above 30% through October 2027: Elevated impact · under way1 · Elevated impact · under wayWashingtonOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. US duties on Canadian softwood lumber stay above 30% through October 2027: Elevated impact · under wayWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESGULF OF MEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

From 25 Oct 2026 to 31 Oct 2027, the combined US duty on softwood lumber from Canada's non-selected mills (anti-dumping plus countervailing cash deposit rates plus the Section 232 tariff) stays above 30% without a break.

Under way now

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaAbout US$4.5bn of lumber trade [6] pays about 34.75% (10.64% + 14.11% + 10%) [1][2][3], about US$1.6bn a year (Strature calculation, estimate).
  2. TownsForestry is 21% of jobs in Quesnel and 13% in Dolbeau-Mistassini [6]; closures hit single-industry towns first (Strature's view).
  3. US housingThe US sources about 30% of its lumber consumption from imports, about 71% of its softwood lumber imports from Canada [6]; duties pass into building costs (Strature's view).
  4. Trade policyCash deposits pile up while reviews and panels run (Strature's view).

Sectors 3

  • Forestry
  • Ports and logistics
  • Rail

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Canada, United States
Sectors
Forestry, Ports and logistics, Rail
Goods
Softwood lumber

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    The stack holds

    Rates stay near 34.75% until the eighth review ends, likely after the window.

  2. S2

    Cut below the line

    The eighth review lowers AD/CVD below 20% combined, or Section 232 relief comes in a deal.

  3. S3

    Escalation

    Section 232 rises on lumber, or the eighth review raises rates.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No final eighth-review results by mid-2027
S2Preliminary eighth-review rates under 20%
S2A return to US-Canada talks
S3A new Section 232 proclamation on wood

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 1 Jan 2027 Section 232: upholstered furniture to 30%, kitchen cabinets and vanities to 50% [3] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 2027 Eighth review preliminary results (month not set) [4] Tentative · Outside event

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · CANADA · strature.net

The other side

The 19 Oct results lowered the stack by about 10 points [5]. US builders still depend on Canadian supply, which keeps buyers on the Canadian side of any settlement. Mills outside the US market face no US duty (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Certain Softwood Lumber Products From Canada: Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review; 2024. US Department of Commerce, Federal Register · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Certain Softwood Lumber Products From Canada: Final Results of Countervailing Duty Administrative Review; 2024. US Department of Commerce, Federal Register · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Proclamation 11000: Amendments to Adjusting Imports of Timber, Lumber, and Their Derivative Products. Federal Register · 9 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Softwood lumber: recent developments. Global Affairs Canada · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Softwood lumber trade with the U.S.: trade litigation. Government of British Columbia · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Decades of trade disputes reshape Canada's softwood lumber sector. RBC Economics · 25 Feb 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Government of Canada acts to protect Canadian softwood lumber jobs, announces support to lumber company. Department of Finance Canada · 28 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Canada announces targeted countermeasures and substantive support for workers and businesses in response to U.S. tariffs. Department of Finance Canada · 25 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. C-006 (Edition 1.6): US-Canada agreement and tariffs. Strature · 1 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks