Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz
The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, a missile, drone, mine, projectile or gunfire strikes, or an armed force seizes, a merchant ship flying the Greek flag or owned or managed by a Greek company, in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman, as reported by Greece's government, UKMTO, the IMO or two independent news sources.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 7 to 6.
- UKMTO: traffic about 70% below pre-war; 12 attacks in seven days, 10 in the strait; likely undercounted [1]
- Greek-flagged LNG carrier Maran Gas Mystras listed as damaged on 5 Oct 2026 [1]
- IMO: 80 verified attacks in and around Hormuz since 28 Feb, at least 22 seafarers killed; attacks not attributable to one country [4]
Why it matters
Greek-owned or Greek-flagged merchant ships were hit or seized in and near the Strait of Hormuz in five separate incidents between 1 Mar and 5 Oct 2026; a chief engineer was killed on one of them on 18 Aug. The IMO had verified 80 attacks on shipping in and around the strait by 16 Sep, with at least 22 seafarers killed. Attacks went on in October, at 12 in seven days by UKMTO's count of 16 Oct. Greek interests owned about a sixth of the transits counted in March.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: 12 attacks in seven days to 16 Oct (UKMTO) [1]; 80 verified attacks by 16 Sep (IMO) [4]; Greek interests owned about a sixth of counted transits in March [5]. Brakes: A truce could hold, as briefly in April and June [1]; Owners may route away or wait; Mine clearance under way since August [1].
Why Impact 3 Threshold case one Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship hit or seized.
The other facts on file (7)
- Greek-owned tanker Ocean Electra among four vessels attacked near Hormuz on 1 Mar 2026 (also Greek City Times, 2 Mar 2026 [2]) [1] (1 Mar 2026)
- Greek-owned Epaminondas attacked off Oman and seized, 22 Apr 2026; Greece's shipping ministry first denied the capture [1] (22 Apr 2026)
- Greek-owned tankers Kavomaleas (Maltese flag) and Acheloos struck on 20 Jul 2026; Kavomaleas abandoned and reportedly towed into Iranian waters [1] (20 Jul 2026)
- Greek-owned Minoan Dignity attacked on 18 Aug 2026; chief engineer killed [1] (18 Aug 2026)
- IMO: at least 70 attacks and 19 seafarers killed; up to 400 ships and about 6,000 seafarers unable to leave the Gulf safely [3] (28 Aug 2026)
- Iraq and Saudi Arabia 43.6% of Greece's crude imports by weight in 2025, 29.3% in Mar-Jun 2026 (Strature calculation from Eurostat) [5] (30 Jun 2026)
- Greek interests owned 17% of 111 counted Hormuz cargo transits in March 2026 (LMA, via S-001; medium confidence) [5] (23 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, a missile, drone, mine, projectile or gunfire strikes, or an armed force seizes, a merchant ship flying the Greek flag or owned or managed by a Greek company, in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman, as reported by Greece's government, UKMTO, the IMO or two independent news sources.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian channel loses.
- CrewsEach strike puts seafarers at risk; one chief engineer was killed in August.
- Shipping costsEach attack keeps war-risk cover and freight for Gulf cargoes high (Strature's view).
- EnergyOne ship hit does not stop Greece's Gulf crude supply.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
More of the same
Attacks go on at several a week and Greek-linked ships are hit every month or two.
- S2
Escalation
A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran widens the attacks.
- S3
A truce that holds
A deal reopens the strait and attacks stop for months.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | UKMTO weekly counts above five attacks |
| S2 | Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026), renewed strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026 |
| S3 | UKMTO reporting no attacks for four weeks |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026), renewed strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 UKMTO and IMO counts of attacks on shipping [4] Tentative · Outside event
- 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves [6] Declared · Strature date
- 27 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Freight rates for Gulf cargoes are high (Strature's view; no official freight figure read), and owners who keep sailing earn them; Greek shipping earnings for this year are not yet published. Greek owners' orderbook of 666 ships at end-2025 [5] points to a fleet that can replace lost tonnage (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- Crude oil
- LNG
- Strait of Hormuz
- Greece
- The EU switches on its ban on maritime services for Russian oil Shares a channel: Both turn on Greek-owned tankers in sanctioned or contested trades.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Wikipedia · 28 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Greek-owned tanker among four vessels attacked near Strait of Hormuz. Greek City Times · 2 Mar 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Six months of uncertainty for seafarers in Strait of Hormuz. International Maritime Organization · 28 Aug 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Stop attacking merchant ships and seafarers: IMO Secretary-General to Member States. International Maritime Organization · 16 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Greece (GRC) country dossier, theme gulf-war-hormuz. Strature Library · 27 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Forecast register (F-0074, brief S-001). Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 7 to 6 · All risks