Brazil's farmers take a tenth less fertiliser in 2026
The test ANDA's figure for fertiliser delivered to the Brazilian market in calendar 2026 is below 44.20 million tonnes, more than 10% under the 49.12 million tonnes of 2025.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ Since 2 Oct 2026: ANDA's indicators showed fertiliser deliveries falling in July and over January to July.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Nitrogen fertiliser imports (HS 3102) were 8.48 Mt in Jan-Sep 2026 against 10.65 Mt; Qatar and Oman fell from 1.28 to 0.64 Mt. [4]
- Potash imports (HS 3104) were 11.00 Mt in Jan-Sep 2026, down 3.5%; Aug-Sep down 23.5%; Canada 4.27 Mt, US$1.48bn; Russia down from 5.51 to 3.38 Mt. [3]
- Deliveries fell 20.5% in the South, 14% in the Southeast and 5.1% in the Centre-West in Jan-Jul. [8]
- ANDA said new business slowed after the Iran war began and expects the effect on the 2026/27 crop. [6]
- ANDA: 22.99 Mt delivered in Jan-Jul 2026, down 8.8%; May -14.7%, June -17.3%, July -22.3%; 2025 total 49.12 Mt. [1]
Why it matters
Fertiliser deliveries to Brazilian farms fell 8.8% in January-July 2026, and the monthly falls deepened to 22.3% in July. Industry forecasts for the year sit at 42-45 million tonnes against 49.1 million in 2025, and nitrogen imports fell 20.3% in January-September. Less fertiliser on the 2026/27 summer crop puts yields at risk; Canada, Brazil's largest potash supplier this year, sells into a smaller market.
Why Likelihood 7 Pushes: forecasts of 42-45 Mt with most at or below 44 Mt; ANDA expects the effect to reach the 2026/27 crop. Brakes: Agroconsult at 45 Mt, with a downward bias (44 Mt plausible).
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: 4.91 Mt less than 2025. Canadian potash sales are one channel and have not fallen yet.
The other facts on file (4)
- Forecasts at ANDA's congress for 2026 deliveries: 42-45 Mt (Yara about 43, Mosaic 42-45, Agrinvest 44 and possibly lower, Agroconsult 45 with a downward bias, 44 plausible); Agroconsult forecast imports down 11.3% to 38.4 Mt and final stocks down 23.4% to 6.7 Mt. [5] (25 Aug 2026)
- Mosaic's country manager said less phosphate could cut soybean yields by 5-7% (company estimate). [5] (25 Aug 2026)
- Global Affairs Canada lists fertilisers first among Canadian exports to Brazil. [9] (30 Jun 2026)
- Brazil imports 96% of the potash it uses. [7] (20 Apr 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
ANDA's figure for fertiliser delivered to the Brazilian market in calendar 2026 is below 44.20 million tonnes, more than 10% under the 49.12 million tonnes of 2025.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaCanada sold Brazil US$1.48bn of potash in Jan-Sep 2026 [3], and fertilisers head Global Affairs Canada's list of exports to Brazil [9]; a smaller market cuts sales, though volume has held so far.
- Crop yieldsMosaic estimates less phosphate could cut soybean yields by 5-7% (company estimate) [5]; poor soils lose most (Strature's view).
- Food and feed exportsA smaller Brazilian crop would tighten world soy and maize markets (Strature's view).
- Fertiliser tradeAgroconsult forecast imports down 11.3% and final stocks down 23.4% [5].
Sectors 3
- Agriculture and food
- Mining and metals
- Energy and pipelines
Straits 1
Who is exposed
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Mining and metals, Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Urea and nitrogen fertilisers, Sulphur, Potash, Phosphates
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
- Companies
- Yara, Mosaic
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Late catch-up
Cheaper credit and late buying lift the last months; the year ends near 45 Mt.
- S2
A tenth less
The May-July fall persists through planting; the year ends near 43 Mt.
- S3
A second-season squeeze
High sulphur and nitrogen prices carry into 2027 and the safrinha maize crop is short of nitrogen too.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | ANDA's August figure falls less than 10% year on year |
| S2 | October potash and nitrogen imports stay 15% or more below 2025 |
| S3 | MAP stays above US$850 CFR into December |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 ANDA indicators with August deliveries [2] Tentative · Outside event
- Nov 2026 Comex Stat import data for October [3] Tentative · Outside event
- Dec 2026 ANDA indicators with September deliveries [2] Tentative · Outside event
- Mar 2027 ANDA indicators with the full year 2026; the event resolves [1] Tentative · Strature date
The other side
Farmers who skip a season of phosphate and potash on rich soils lose little yield and save cash at peak prices (Strature's view). Turkmenistan's potash rose to 1.83 Mt in Jan-Sep 2026, showing new suppliers can enter, and Brazil's reliance on Russian potash fell [3].
Connected in Strature
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- Urea and nitrogen fertilisers
- Sulphur
- Strait of Hormuz
- Brazil
- Canada
- Russia
- China
- Nigeria
- Qatar
- Oman
- Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting Shares a channel: The world urea price sets Brazil's nitrogen cost.
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: ANDA ties the slowdown to the Iran war; Qatar and Oman sent half as much nitrogen in Jan-Sep 2026.
- The US lifts its waiver and puts Graham Act duties on Russian goods, potash included Shares a channel: Canada and Russia are the two main potash suppliers to Brazil (Comex Stat) and to the US (79% and 12% of US potash use in 2021-2024, farmdoc daily).
- Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break Shares a channel: Credit costs and the real set farmers' purchasing power.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Principais Indicadores do Setor de Fertilizantes 2026. ANDA · 2 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Recursos (data releases). ANDA · 2026-10 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Brazil's imports of potash fertiliser (HS 3104), by country and month, Jan-Sep 2025 and 2026. MDIC, Comex Stat API · 25 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Brazil's imports of nitrogen fertiliser (HS 3102), by country, Jan-Sep 2025 and 2026. MDIC, Comex Stat API · 25 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Safra Mounjaro: entregas de fertilizantes devem cair mais de 10% em 2026. AgFeed · 25 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Entregas de fertilizantes caem 22,3% em julho no Brasil. Revista Cultivar · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Middle East conflict revives concerns over fertilizer dependence in the U.S. and Brazil. farmdoc daily, University of Illinois (Colussi and Langemeier) · 20 Apr 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Queda nas entregas de adubos acende alerta. Agrolink · 12 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Canada-Brazil relations. Global Affairs Canada · 30 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks