US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Nigeria
Canada took 5.94% of Nigeria's exports in 2023, the High band, mostly crude. Nigeria supplied 10.9% of Canada's crude imports in 2025, second only to Saudi Arabia outside the US.
5.94%
Share of Nigeria's exports going to Canada (2023)
10.9%
Share of Canada's crude imports, by volume (2025)
C$2.17bn
Crude in Canada's imports from Nigeria, C$bn (Strature calculation)
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Risks
- Crude is 90% of Canada's C$2.39bn of imports from Nigeria; a Canadian recession (F-0174) or lower refinery runs would cut it.
- Saudi Arabia supplied 11.2% of Canada's crude imports in 2025, close to Nigeria's 10.9%; the two are Canada's largest crude suppliers outside the US.
- US purchases of Nigerian crude fell to 41 thousand b/d in Jul 2026 from 120 a year earlier, though monthly figures swing widely; in 2025 Canada bought Nigerian crude worth 41.4% of US purchases.
Opportunities
- Canada bought Nigerian crude worth 41.4% of US purchases in 2025, a second outlet beside the US.
- Two-way trade includes US$246.9m of Canadian wheat sold to Nigeria in 2025.
Uncertainties
- The 5.94% share is for 2023, from Nigeria's own report (US$3.87bn). Canada's own record shows its imports from Nigeria fell from US$2.23bn in 2023 to US$1.71bn in 2025, so the share is likely lower now and may sit below the High line.
- Whether Canada adds domestic crude supply to its eastern refineries is not measured here.
What to watch
- End Oct 2026US EIA crude imports by origin for August.
- MonthlyCanadian crude imports by origin.
- 31 Dec 2027F-0174 resolves: Canada in recession.
Exposure by channel
| Channel | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales to CanadaTrade | 5.94% of goods exports 2023Share of the country's goods exports going to Canada | High | High ≥5% · Medium 2–5% · Low <2% but on a money line |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Canada Energy Regulator, Market Snapshot: Canadian crude oil imports dipped slightly in 2025, with most still coming from the US (15 Jul 2026); UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's imports by partner, as reported by Canada.
Briefs and questions
- C-006 F-0174 Canada in recession, 25%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- World Bank WITS, Trade Stats (from UN Comtrade), exports by reporter to Canada and to the world (2023; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Canada Energy Regulator, Market Snapshot: Canadian crude oil imports dipped slightly in 2025, with most still coming from the US (15 Jul 2026) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, imports HS6 x country (ODPFN015), 2025 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- US EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly, U.S. Imports from Nigeria of Crude Oil (thousand barrels per day), monthly (Jul 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's exports by partner, as reported by Canada (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's imports from Nigeria, all goods, as reported by Canada (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's imports by partner, as reported by Canada (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Crude oil in Canada's imports from Nigeria: C$2.17bn (= Canada's imports from Nigeria of HS 2709, exact value)
- Nigeria's crude sales to Canada relative to its sales to the US: 41.4% (= Canada's crude imports from Nigeria / US crude imports from Nigeria)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →