The Labrador hydro agreements are still unsigned on 31 December 2026
The test The long-form Definitive Agreements under the 17 Aug 2026 Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement are not executed by 31 Dec 2026, on the parties' own releases (the F-0171 test [10]).
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ Since 5-8 Oct 2026: a PQ minority government pledged to review the deal, and the N.L. premier was reported open to moving the date to March
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was sworn in as Quebec's premier on 21 Oct 2026, with a cabinet that includes a minister responsible for independence; no PQ government statement on the Churchill Falls deal was found from 21 to 27 Oct [12]
- Wakeham saw no sign of a wish to tear up the deal [9]
- VOCM (8 Oct): Quebec's then premier-elect says he needs more time; Premier Wakeham says the date could move to March if necessary [8]
- PQ leader said in September he would not axe the deal but would do a due diligence review [6]
- PQ won and forms a minority government [7]
- House of Assembly voted on 17 Sep 2026 to move forward; Churchill Falls price about 0.2 to about 1.8 cents per kWh in 2027; a 15% rebate on the first 2,000 kWh a month for N.L. residential customers, effective only once the Definitive Agreements are final [4]
Why it matters
NL Hydro and Hydro-Québec signed a framework on 17 Aug 2026 to replace the 1969 Churchill Falls contract and build Gull Island, aiming to sign binding agreements by 31 Dec 2026. Quebec elected a PQ minority government on 5 Oct that wants to review the deal first; its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, was sworn in as premier on 21 Oct. On 8 Oct VOCM reported the N.L. premier willing to let the date move to March.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: a new Quebec government with a review to run and about two months left; N.L. open to March; board and possible government approvals to come. Brakes: both sides say they want the deal; Material Terms written; a 31 Mar fallback.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case unsigned on 31 Dec with the DCIA alive.
The other facts on file (6)
- DCIA: best efforts to negotiate Definitive Agreements with the goal of signing by 31 Dec 2026 and no later than the end of the term [1] (17 Aug 2026)
- DCIA term ends on signing, mutual termination or 31 Mar 2027 unless extended in writing; mostly non-binding; 1969 contracts unchanged until signing [1] (17 Aug 2026)
- 2024 MOU expired on 30 Apr 2026, during the provincial review (IRC set up Dec 2025; report released 19 May 2026) [1] (17 Aug 2026)
- Package worth nearly C$70bn; Gull Island up to 2,700 MW, about 12 TWh a year, online 2036-2037; Churchill Falls +1,275 MW; up to C$10bn federal support [3] (17 Aug 2026)
- Province values the deal at C$49bn in 2026 present value; projects referred to the Major Projects Office once binding agreements are concluded [2] (17 Aug 2026)
- 2024 MOU targeted Definitive Agreements by April 2026 [5] (9 Sep 2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- The Labrador hydro agreements are still unsigned on 31 December 2026Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated. · Canada
How it spreads
The long-form Definitive Agreements under the 17 Aug 2026 Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement are not executed by 31 Dec 2026, on the parties' own releases (the F-0171 test [10]).
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaA slip within the term costs time, not the deal (Strature's view).
- EnergyGull Island and the Churchill Falls upgrade wait for the Definitive Agreements before referral to the Major Projects Office [2].
- Provincial revenueThe 15% residential rebate starts only once the agreements are final [4]; the new Churchill Falls price is set for 2027 [4].
- RulesA reopened deal would test Ottawa's loan guarantee and the major-projects track (Strature's view).
Sectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 1
- Canada primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Canada
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Signed by year end
Quebec completes its review and the boards approve in December.
- S2
Slip to March
The review runs into the new year; the parties sign within the term.
- S3
Reopened
The review asks to change the Material Terms; the term lapses or is extended.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A Quebec cabinet or National Assembly decision before 31 Dec 2026 |
| S2 | A public March target or a written extension |
| S3 | Review findings that name terms to change |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0171: 60% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
Where the card uses it DCIA goal for the Definitive Agreements (also the date F-0171 resolves). Strature forecast F-0171: 60% (1 Oct 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 31 Dec 2026 DCIA goal for the Definitive Agreements (also the date F-0171 resolves). Strature forecast F-0171: 60% (1 Oct 2026) [1] Declared · Outside event
- 31 Mar 2027 DCIA term ends unless extended in writing [1] Declared · Outside event
- 2036 Gull Island expected online (2036-2037) [3] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
A slower signing may give Quebec's new government ownership of the deal and lower the risk of a later challenge. Wakeham sees no wish to tear it up, and the province already counts C$49bn of value in it [2] (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Canada: Access by List
- US tariffs and Canada
- Canada’s capital projects
- Canada
- Quebec's new PQ government tables a referendum bill or opens an official sovereignty consultation Shares a channel: The same new PQ government decides both.
- A First Nation's court challenge keeps the Pacific Link listing in question Shares a channel: Another file on the federal major-projects track.
Sources
11 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement (execution version). Hydro-Québec · 17 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Newfoundland and Labrador Reaches Historic Deal with Government of Quebec and Government of Canada to Develop Churchill Falls and Gull Island. Government of Newfoundland and Labrador · 17 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Prime Minister Carney announces the largest clean energy investment in North American history. Natural Resources Canada · 17 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- New Churchill Falls agreement: Key terms. Borden Ladner Gervais · 28 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- The Churchill Falls MOU: Just the Facts. Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro · 9 Sep 2025 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- What Quebec's provincial election results could mean for the Churchill Falls agreement. CBC News via Yahoo News Canada · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Sovereigntist Parti Québécois wins Quebec election; Wakeham looks forward to working with new premier. NTV News · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Quebec's Premier-Elect Needs Time to Review Churchill Falls Agreements. VOCM · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Premier Provides Update on First Conversation with Quebec Premier-Elect. VOCM · 9 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Forecast register, F-0171. Strature · 1 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- St-Pierre Plamondon sworn in as Quebec premier, unveils smaller cabinet. Global News (The Canadian Press) · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks