India and Pakistan strike each other's territory again
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, India or Pakistan carries out a missile, drone or air strike on targets across the Line of Control or the international border, as stated by either government.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- PAA NOTAM A0590 extends the airspace ban on Indian aircraft from 17 Oct to 04:59 PKT 24 Nov 2026; previous end 24 Oct [6]
- Two Pakistanis killed by BSF fire in the Bedian sector on 2 Oct 2026, Reuters reported; Pakistan called them civilians and summoned India's charge d'affaires on 3 Oct [2]
- India summoned Pakistan's charge d'affaires over infiltration; ISPR warned of very harsh retribution [9]
- Court of Arbitration held on 31 Aug 2026 that the Indus Waters Treaty remains in force; India rejected the award and keeps the treaty in abeyance [7]
- Navy ships collided in the Arabian Sea on 15 Sep 2026; each side blamed the other and summoned envoys [1]
- No bilateral incidents-at-sea agreement or navy hotline, a retired Pakistan Navy vice admiral said [1]
Why it matters
India struck nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in May 2025, and the two fought for four days. Since then neither side has struck the other's territory, but incidents are mounting: a collision of navy ships on 15 September and two Pakistanis killed in Indian Border Security Force fire on 2 October, Reuters reported. The risk is a new missile, drone or air strike across the line.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: 15 Sep navy collision, 2 Oct border killings, ISPR warning of 2 Oct, Indus treaty held in abeyance. Brakes: no strike in 17 months, incidents kept to envoy summons, US pressure in 2025.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case one strike and retaliation. No key price sourced.
The other facts on file (3)
- Pahalgam attack killed 26 on 22 Apr 2025; India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty on 23 Apr; strikes on 7 May; firing stopped from 5 pm on 10 May [4] (21 Jun 2025)
- India struck nine sites it called terrorist infrastructure; Pakistan called it an act of war and retaliated [3] (7 May 2025)
- Modi told Trump on 18 Jun 2025 that Operation Sindoor has not concluded [4] (21 Jun 2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- India and Pakistan strike each other's territory againImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · India
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, India or Pakistan carries out a missile, drone or air strike on targets across the Line of Control or the international border, as stated by either government.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaCanada exported C$3.88bn excl. gold to India in 2025 [8]; no loss sourced.
- Air travelAirspace closures lengthen flights between South Asia, the Gulf, Europe and North America.
- MarketsA strike would add political risk to both economies (Strature's view); no 2025 market move sourced.
- Water and tradeIndia holds the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance and rejected the Aug 2026 arbitration award [7]; a new round would harden the split.
- DiplomacyA new round would draw in the US, China and the Gulf states.
Countries 6
- India primary
- Pakistan primary
- China
- United States
- Saudi Arabia
- Canada
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Cold standoff
Incidents and envoy summons continue, with no strike.
- S2
A strike after an attack
A mass-casualty attack in India leads to Indian strikes, as in May 2025.
- S3
A clash at sea
A second encounter at sea escalates without an agreed procedure.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Pakistan renews its airspace ban monthly |
| S2 | An attack India blames on a Pakistan-based group |
| S3 | A radar lock-on or warning shots reported by either navy |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 24 Nov 2026 Pakistan's airspace ban on Indian aircraft runs to this date unless extended (PAA NOTAM A0590, as reported) [6] Declared · Outside event
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The other side
A strike-free year would ease political risk for both economies (Strature's view). A navy-to-navy incidents agreement, which analysts say is missing, would lower the chance of a clash at sea.
Connected in Strature
Sources
8 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- India-Pakistan navy ship collision sparks alarm over unintended escalation. Al Jazeera · 17 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Pakistan summons Indian diplomat over killing of two civilians at border (Reuters). The Star · 3 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- India launches Operation Sindoor, exchanges heavy fire with Pakistan. Al Jazeera · 6 May 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Operation Sindoor: a timeline of India-Pak tensions from Pahalgam attack to Modi-Trump call. The Tribune · 21 Jun 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Pakistan extends airspace ban on Indian flights till November 24 (PAA NOTAM A0590). ProPakistani · 18 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Court of Arbitration finds that the Indus Water Treaty remains in force. American Society of International Law · 21 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Canada-India trade, India dossier (Statistics Canada CIMT open data, 2025). Strature Library / Statistics Canada · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Pakistan summons Indian envoy over killing of 2 civilians by border troops. Dawn · 3 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks