Risks
Five hotspots this month, picked by a written rule. Red Sea & Bab el-Mandeb comes first: it is acute.
Updated 31 Oct 2026 · risks reviewed 25 Oct to 29 Oct 2026
This page answers: Which risks do we follow, and which countries do they reach?
Using this page
- Choose a circle on the map, or a risk in the list, to open its card.
- Pick a region to see the risks that reach it.
- Open Full analyst view for the risks our briefs follow and their sources.
The five hotspots In rule order; open one to see its risks
- 1
Red Sea & Bab el-Mandeb
Most ships still avoid Bab el-Mandeb. Next: 3 Nov, US midterm elections; reported date after which a renewed US campaign against Iran may start
- 2
Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)
On 9 Sep 2026 the IAEA Board in Vienna voted 23 to 3, with 8 abstentions, to report Iran's safeguards non-compliance to the UN Security Council. Next: 31 Oct, Refinery-gate diesel discount ends
- 3
US trade & foreign policy
A US law signed on 18 September 2026 requires duties of up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, unless the president waives them. Next: 1 Nov, Earliest reported date for the 2027 eligibility outcome
- 4
Russia, Ukraine & NATO
The war is more than four and a half years old with no general ceasefire. Next: 1 Nov, Oleshky local truce due to end (22:59 Kyiv time)
- 5
Global debt & markets
Long-term government bond yields across the G7 rose sharply from July to early October 2026. Next: 2 Nov, Governor Cook's pre-hearing position statement due
Source: Strature world risk cards; hotspot rule run on 31 Oct 2026Map data: Natural Earth (public domain). Equal Earth projection.
What changed this month Dated by the move or the fact behind the trend
- 4 days agoYemen · SecurityThe Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal Likelihood risingSince 10 Sep: the Houthis seized Mocha; the government's 5 Oct counter-claim confirms the coast is contested.Reviewed 27 Oct: Likelihood lowered from very likely to likely
- 5 days agoEgypt · SecurityA Houthi attack hits Egypt or Egyptian forces Likelihood risingParliament authorised military support for Saudi Arabia
- 11 days agoUnited Kingdom · SecurityUK forces are drawn into combat with the Houthis Likelihood risingRAF Typhoons sent to Saudi Arabia for defensive counter-air missions.
- 3 days agoHungary · WarHungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project Impact raised within elevated
- 3 days ago
- 3 days agoThailand · WarThailand's state-managed diesel price reaches 50 baht a litre Likelihood lowered within possible
- 3 days agoAustralia · GeoeconomicsThe Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4.85% or more by year end Likelihood risingSeptember-quarter core inflation above the RBA's August path; futures lean strongly to a November rise.Reviewed 28 Oct: Likelihood raised within likely
- 3 days ago
Coming up Dated events in the five hotspots, next 30 days
- Russia's producer diesel export ban ends unless renewedGulf & Hormuz (Iran war) · today
- OPEC+ meeting of the seven countriesGulf & Hormuz (Iran war) · tomorrow
- Earliest reported date for the 2027 eligibility outcomeUS trade & foreign policy · tomorrow
- Oleshky local truce due to end (22:59 Kyiv time)Russia, Ukraine & NATO · tomorrow
- Last reported date to announce an exclusion effective 1 Jan 2027US trade & foreign policy · in 2 days
- Governor Cook's pre-hearing position statement dueGlobal debt & markets · in 2 days
- US midterm elections; reported date after which a renewed US campaign against Iran may startRed Sea & Bab el-Mandeb · in 3 days
- US midterm elections; Congress returns afterwardsRussia, Ukraine & NATO · in 3 days
How we choose the five
- Every risk carries one hotspot tag. A hotspot counts only if one of its risks is of high impact, likely or already under way, and one has a dated event in the next 60 days.
- Acute hotspots go first: those with a risk of high impact that is likely or already under way.
- The rest rank by how many of their risks have a serious impact, then how many are likely or under way, then their dated events in the next 30 days, then the countries they reach.
- At most two hotspots come from one region, and at most one is a theme with no single place. The next five are under Also watching.
- The two scores are never multiplied. The rule runs again each time the site is updated.
All risks, by region
No risk matches these filters.
Worldwide
- The CDC or WHO confirms sustained human-to-human spread of H5N1 bird flu
United States · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iran · Supply chains and chokepoints
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply
Supply chains and chokepoints
Show all worldwide risks
- The WTO adopts no reform of dispute settlement or decision-making by 25 Oct 2027
Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- IEA members agree a second emergency oil stock release
Energy and resources
- A G7 bond rout forces a central bank to buy government bonds
United States, United Kingdom, France, Japan · Finance and markets
- India, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year
India, Indonesia, Russia · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150
Supply chains and chokepoints
- World trade in AI-enabling goods falls year on year
United States, Taiwan, South Korea · Technology and cyber
- The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index
United States · Finance and markets
- Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026
India, Pakistan, Bangladesh · Energy and resources
- A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market
United States, China, India · Energy and resources
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea
Qatar, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea · Energy and resources
- The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keeps its Russia sanctions
United States, European Union, Russia · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The US raises or widens its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies
United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- A state-linked cyber attack cuts power, water or a port for a day or more
United States, China, Russia, Iran · Technology and cyber
- Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy levels in 2027
Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia · Regulation and compliance
- Russian forces confront a NATO boarding of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Baltic
Russia, Estonia, Finland, Denmark · Geopolitics and conflict
- A helium shortfall forces chip output cuts in Taiwan or South Korea
Taiwan, South Korea · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Two or more undersea cables or pipes cut in one Baltic or North Sea incident
Finland, Estonia, Sweden · Technology and cyber
- Ransomware halts a major port, hospital network or pipeline for three days or more
Technology and cyber
Americas
- The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows
Canada, Mexico, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gallon to June 2027
United States · Energy and resources
- United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade, the budget and the Fed
United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
Show all risks in Americas
- The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper from Chile
Chile, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- Washington re-tightens chip export controls on China
United States, China · Technology and cyber
- The president removes Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the removal holds
United States · Finance and markets
- The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil
United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- US growth stalls below 1% for two quarters in a row
United States · Finance and markets
- US armed forces act on Canadian territory or in waters Canada claims, without Canada's consent
Canada · Geopolitics and conflict
- US duties on Canadian softwood lumber stay above 30% through October 2027
Canada · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- A First Nation's court challenge keeps the Pacific Link listing in question
Canada · Regulation and compliance
- Diesel in Santiago reaches 1,800 pesos a litre
Chile · Energy and resources
- El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbean
Colombia · Energy and resources
- Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into law by 31 Mar 2027
Brazil · Regulation and compliance
- El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again
Panama, United States · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break
Brazil · Finance and markets
- The US openly strikes cartel targets inside Mexico without Mexico's consent
Mexico, United States · Geopolitics and conflict
- The US restricts foreign access to its AI models
United States, China · Technology and cyber
- A US debt-limit standoff with Treasury's cash projected to run out within three months
United States · Finance and markets
- US natural gas (Henry Hub) averages US$5 per MMBtu or more in a winter month
United States, Canada · Energy and resources
- The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.5%
United States · Finance and markets
- Quebec's new PQ government tables a referendum bill or opens an official sovereignty consultation
Canada · Geopolitics and conflict
- The US Treasury market seizes and the Fed buys bonds to restore it
United States · Finance and markets
- US private-credit funds keep paying out less than investors ask for
United States · Finance and markets
- Brazil's farmers take a tenth less fertiliser in 2026
Brazil · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027
Peru · Energy and resources
- The Fed raises rates again by March 2027
United States · Finance and markets
- Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track
Argentina · Finance and markets
- Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada
Canada, Venezuela, United States · Energy and resources
- Mexico's state oil sector needs federal money beyond its budget line
Mexico · Finance and markets
- El Niño floods leave 100,000 people in Peru without home or livelihood
Peru · Supply chains and chokepoints
- A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentina's first round on 24 Oct 2027
Argentina · Geopolitics and conflict
- Canada's real GDP falls for two quarters in a row by the fourth quarter of 2027
Canada · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- USTR opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act
Canada, United States · Regulation and compliance
- China takes a formal measure against Panama over its canal ports
Panama, China · Supply chains and chokepoints
- A gas shortfall forces two weeks or more of gas rationing in Colombia
Colombia · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Colombia loses its last investment-grade credit rating
Colombia · Finance and markets
- The US charges or sanctions another sitting Mexican governor or federal official
Mexico, United States · Regulation and compliance
- A new break in the Camisea pipeline cuts gas to Lima
Peru · Energy and resources
- US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December
United States · Regulation and compliance
- A court halts the planned aluminium smelter at Inola, Oklahoma
United States, United Arab Emirates · Regulation and compliance
- The US raises its Section 301 duty on Brazil or strips its exemptions
Brazil, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- Chile's central bank raises its policy rate above 4.5%
Chile · Finance and markets
- Argentina's China swap line is ended, cut or called
Argentina · Finance and markets
- Canada and Mercosur miss their end-2026 target for a trade deal
Canada, Brazil · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The Labrador hydro agreements are still unsigned on 31 December 2026
Canada · Energy and resources
- US forces join a lethal strike on an armed group inside Colombia
Colombia, United States · Geopolitics and conflict
- Informal miners block Peru's national roads as their permit register ends
Peru · Regulation and compliance
- The Canada-ASEAN trade deal misses its November 2026 target
Canada, Singapore · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- A court or regulator halts oil drilling off the Amazon mouth
Brazil · Energy and resources
- The Canada-EU summit delivers none of its drafted deals by 31 Dec 2026
Canada · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027
Canada, China · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- A chip shortage idles a Mexican car or electronics plant for two weeks
Mexico · Supply chains and chokepoints
- A strike halts Gran Rosario grain shipments for three days or more
Argentina · Supply chains and chokepoints
- The US lifts its waiver and puts Graham Act duties on Russian goods, potash included
United States, Russia · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The US imposes the first labour-mechanism remedy on a Mexican facility
United States, Mexico · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine for a week or more
Chile · Supply chains and chokepoints
Middle East and North Africa
- The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal
Yemen, Egypt · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT
Iran · Geopolitics and conflict
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again
Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman · Supply chains and chokepoints
Show all risks in Middle East and North Africa
- Saudi barrels return and Brent falls below US$70
Saudi Arabia · Energy and resources
- The war budget forces Riyadh to shelve or shrink a giga-project
Saudi Arabia · Finance and markets
- US sanctions hit one of Türkiye's ten largest banks over Iran
Turkey · Finance and markets
- No UAE state investor closes a C$1bn deal in Canada by October 2027
United Arab Emirates, Canada · Finance and markets
- The US cuts off a UAE-licensed bank or exchange house over Iran
United Arab Emirates · Finance and markets
- Free of OPEC, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter
United Arab Emirates · Energy and resources
- Iraqi crude through Ceyhan falls back below 0.4 mb/d for 30 days
Turkey, Iraq · Energy and resources
- Another Arab or African state cuts diplomatic ties with the UAE
United Arab Emirates · Geopolitics and conflict
- An Iranian strike halts a UAE port, plant or airport
United Arab Emirates · Geopolitics and conflict
- The Egyptian pound loses a tenth of its value within three months
Egypt · Finance and markets
- Fire from Lebanon into Israel resumes on seven or more days in a month
Israel, Lebanon · Geopolitics and conflict
- Türkiye's central bank has to raise its policy rate again within 12 months
Turkey · Finance and markets
- Congress blocks or conditions the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia, United States · Geopolitics and conflict
- The PKK disarmament process breaks down
Turkey · Geopolitics and conflict
- The Canada-UAE trade deal, concluded in July, is not signed by mid-2027
United Arab Emirates, Canada · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- A Houthi attack hits Egypt or Egyptian forces
Egypt · Geopolitics and conflict
- Egypt cuts gas to its fertiliser plants for two weeks
Egypt · Energy and resources
- Canada and Saudi Arabia miss their early-2027 target for an investment treaty
Saudi Arabia, Canada · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- A Houthi strike cuts power or water to a Saudi city for two days
Saudi Arabia · Geopolitics and conflict
- A Turkish-flagged merchant ship is hit in the Black Sea
Turkey · Supply chains and chokepoints
- A Greek-Turkish standoff at sea south or east of Crete
Turkey, Greece · Geopolitics and conflict
- A cyberattack halts a UAE port, airport or energy site for a day
United Arab Emirates · Technology and cyber
- An Iran-linked attack stops Israeli chip fabs for a week
Israel · Technology and cyber
- US export limits hold back a Saudi AI data centre
Saudi Arabia, United States · Technology and cyber
Asia-Pacific
- The US widens its Section 232 chip tariff from a short list to most chips
Taiwan, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil
China, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence
China · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
Show all risks in Asia-Pacific
- India tightens cooking-gas rationing again
India · Energy and resources
- Japan or China puts new export controls on chip materials or tools aimed at the other
Japan, China · Technology and cyber
- China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade
Taiwan, China · Geopolitics and conflict
- The Diet enacts a consumption-tax cut
Japan · Finance and markets
- Indonesia's shares are moved out of the main emerging-markets benchmark
Indonesia · Finance and markets
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifts the OCR to 3.50% or more
New Zealand · Finance and markets
- Bangladesh leaves the LDC group on 24 Nov 2026 without an extension
Bangladesh · Regulation and compliance
- A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel output
Indonesia · Supply chains and chokepoints
- The iron ore price averages below US$80 a tonne for a month
Australia, China · Energy and resources
- China puts a new curb on civilian trade with Japan
China, Japan · Geopolitics and conflict
- India and Pakistan strike each other's territory again
India, Pakistan · Geopolitics and conflict
- The US penalises India again for buying Russian oil
India, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The US raises its tariff on South Korean cars above 15%
South Korea, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The US cuts its troops in South Korea or cancels a major allied exercise
South Korea, United States · Geopolitics and conflict
- The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysian electronics, machinery or other named goods
Malaysia, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- Thailand raises its 70% public-debt ceiling
Thailand · Finance and markets
- Thailand's state-managed diesel price reaches 50 baht a litre
Thailand · Energy and resources
- The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars, machinery or rubber goods
Thailand, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods
Vietnam · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- A local-government financing vehicle misses a public bond payment
China · Finance and markets
- Indonesia lifts its 3% deficit cap or weakens the central bank's protection
Indonesia · Finance and markets
- India caps or halts diesel and jet fuel exports to protect its home market
India · Energy and resources
- A Japan-China encounter at sea or in the air ends in a collision, gunfire or injury
Japan, China · Geopolitics and conflict
- South Korea's chip export boom turns into a fall
South Korea · Technology and cyber
- A fuel shortfall forces rolling power cuts in Taiwan
Taiwan · Energy and resources
- Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more
Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia · Supply chains and chokepoints
- The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4.85% or more by year end
Australia · Finance and markets
- Japan's oil bill keeps its goods trade in deficit through March 2027
Japan · Energy and resources
- Allies publicly blame China for a new break-in to critical infrastructure
China, United States, Canada · Technology and cyber
- The Hong Kong dollar hits the weak end of its band and the HKMA buys it
Hong Kong · Finance and markets
- The Bank of Korea raises its rate to 3.25% by year end
South Korea · Finance and markets
- Canberra steps in again on fertiliser before the 2027 winter crop
Australia · Supply chains and chokepoints
- India's war-year subsidies push its deficit above the 4.3% target
India · Finance and markets
- A Labour-led government takes office after New Zealand's 7 November election
New Zealand · Geopolitics and conflict
- The Philippine central bank raises its policy rate again
Philippines · Finance and markets
- Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budget by more than a tenth, or lets it lapse
Taiwan · Finance and markets
- Will the KMT win 13 or more of Taiwan's 22 mayor and county posts on 28 Nov?
Taiwan · Geopolitics and conflict
- Bangladesh has no new IMF programme by the end of June 2027
Bangladesh · Finance and markets
- Bangladesh sheds 2,000 MW of power at peak again
Bangladesh · Energy and resources
- China takes formal counter-measures against Mexico's tariff wall
China, Mexico · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- Pakistan's petrol or diesel stocks fall below 10 days
Pakistan · Energy and resources
- Pakistani forces fight the Houthis in Yemen
Pakistan · Geopolitics and conflict
- The Philippines declares a new national energy emergency over fuel
Philippines · Energy and resources
- Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry season
Philippines · Energy and resources
- Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs
Singapore · Energy and resources
- Heavy fighting resumes on the Thai-Cambodian border
Thailand, Cambodia · Geopolitics and conflict
- Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season
Vietnam · Energy and resources
- Australia orders diesel rationing or allocation
Australia · Energy and resources
- The yuan falls back past 6.85 per US dollar
China, United States · Finance and markets
- Hong Kong's AI-led export boom turns into a quarterly fall
Hong Kong · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The US puts new sanctions on officials over Hong Kong
Hong Kong, United States · Geopolitics and conflict
- A rise in subsidised fuel prices sets off protests in many Indonesian cities
Indonesia · Energy and resources
- Malaysia raises its subsidised RON95 petrol price to RM2.20 a litre or more
Malaysia · Energy and resources
- New Zealand moves to phase 4 of its fuel plan: pump limits and priority users
New Zealand · Energy and resources
- Singapore's chip-led boom turns into a technical recession
Singapore · Technology and cyber
- A quake or other disaster halts chip output in Kumamoto for 30 days or more
Japan · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's cities
Vietnam · Energy and resources
- A deadly or ship-disabling clash at Scarborough Shoal
China, Philippines · Geopolitics and conflict
- Australia sends a warship to the Strait of Hormuz
Australia · Geopolitics and conflict
- Hong Kong's airport has to ration jet fuel
Hong Kong · Energy and resources
- A deadly clash on the DMZ or the sea border
South Korea, North Korea · Geopolitics and conflict
- Singapore's bunker fuel sales fall more than 10% over three months
Singapore · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Indonesia sends forces on an operation under its new "Badr" pact
Indonesia · Geopolitics and conflict
Europe
- Europe's right turn: the RN in France, the AfD in Germany, Reform UK
France, Germany, United Kingdom · Geopolitics and conflict
- The EU's ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts bites from 1 January 2027
European Union, Russia · Energy and resources
- Hungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project
Hungary · Energy and resources
Show all risks in Europe
- A veto lets an EU Russia sanctions regime lapse at its renewal date
European Union, Hungary, Slovakia · Regulation and compliance
- The EU switches on its ban on maritime services for Russian oil
European Union, Russia · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The EU puts the principal of Russia's immobilised reserves to use
Belgium, European Union · Finance and markets
- Zeebrugge goes a winter quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG
Belgium · Energy and resources
- Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027
Italy · Energy and resources
- The ECB raises rates a third time on energy inflation
European Union · Finance and markets
- The Czech central bank lifts its main rate to 4.25% or higher
Czech Republic · Finance and markets
- The EU moves to delay its carbon price on fuel and heating a second time
European Union · Regulation and compliance
- EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget
European Union · Finance and markets
- No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027
European Union, Ukraine · Finance and markets
- The Lecornu government falls before France adopts its 2027 budget
France · Finance and markets
- Norway's parliament adopts new ethics rules for the oil fund
Norway · Regulation and compliance
- The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines
Switzerland · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- China bars exports of chips made in China by a foreign-controlled chipmaker
Netherlands, China · Technology and cyber
- Merz's coalition breaks or faces a confidence vote
Germany · Geopolitics and conflict
- The US raises its tariff on EU cars above the 15% deal rate
Germany, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The US opens a trade case against EU digital rules
European Union, United States · Technology and cyber
- The US lifts its general tariff on EU goods above 15%
European Union, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The US raises its drug tariff on EU medicines above 15%
Ireland · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The EU-China hybrid cap fails and the EU puts duties on Chinese hybrids
European Union, China · Regulation and compliance
- A court ruling halts the EU-Mercosur trade deal
European Union · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- Norway's oil fund falls below NOK 20,000bn at a quarter end
Norway · Finance and markets
- Norway curbs power exports to Europe
Norway · Energy and resources
- Cross-border bank consolidation in Germany: a foreign bank takes control of a large German bank
Germany, Italy · Finance and markets
- The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation
United Kingdom · Finance and markets
- Will Swiss voters approve the looser War Material Act on 29 Nov 2026?
Switzerland · Geopolitics and conflict
- A German chemical or steel plant closes or cuts deep as gas costs climb
Germany · Energy and resources
- Spain has no invested Prime Minister by 31 January 2027 after the 29 November snap election
Spain · Geopolitics and conflict
- UK household energy price cap jumps 10% or more in January or April 2027
United Kingdom · Energy and resources
- Italy votes before late October 2027, the first time under the new majority-bonus law
Italy · Geopolitics and conflict
- President's vetoes block Poland's defence money or 2027 budget revenue
Poland · Regulation and compliance
- Slovakia's opposition wins a seat majority at the 2027 election
Slovakia · Geopolitics and conflict
- Landlocked Austria draws again on its emergency oil stocks
Austria · Energy and resources
- Germany's pension reform misses its new spring target
Germany · Regulation and compliance
- Spain's fuel tax relief runs out in the gap between governments
Spain · Energy and resources
- Drone strikes on merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania
Bulgaria, Romania · Supply chains and chokepoints
- The 30-year gilt yield closes above 6%
United Kingdom · Finance and markets
- Jetten's minority cabinet falls before October 2027
Netherlands · Geopolitics and conflict
- Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more
Norway · Finance and markets
- De Wever's five-party government falls over the budget
Belgium · Finance and markets
- Swiss parliament blocks or sends back the EU treaty package
Switzerland · Regulation and compliance
- Prague caps household power or gas prices again
Czech Republic · Energy and resources
- The EU puts off its carbon border bill, or a big partner hits back
European Union · Regulation and compliance
- A second EU country rations diesel or jet fuel
European Union · Energy and resources
- The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock
European Union · Energy and resources
- A partner takes the EU's new steel quotas to the WTO, or hits back
European Union · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- A rating agency cuts Finland's credit rating again
Finland · Finance and markets
- A rating agency cuts Hungary below investment grade
Hungary · Finance and markets
- Italy's 2026 deficit misses 3% and the EU procedure stays open
Italy · Finance and markets
- The krone gives back its 2026 gains against the euro
Norway · Finance and markets
- Poland lays anti-personnel mines on its eastern border
Poland · Geopolitics and conflict
- Half a million Portuguese customers lose power at once
Portugal · Energy and resources
- Brussels cuts Portugal's final recovery-fund payment
Portugal · Regulation and compliance
- Romania's new government falls within a year
Romania · Geopolitics and conflict
- A rating agency cuts Romania below investment grade
Romania · Finance and markets
- Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis
Romania · Energy and resources
- Druzhba oil to Hungary and Slovakia stops again for two weeks or more
Hungary, Slovakia, Russia · Energy and resources
- No Prime Minister, and Sweden is forced into an extra election
Sweden · Geopolitics and conflict
- Austria's savings path breaks: the EU steps up its deficit procedure, or the coalition splits
Austria · Finance and markets
- Switzerland orders power restrictions or quotas in winter 2026-27
Switzerland · Energy and resources
- Brussels freezes a whole Czech EU funding programme over the conflict of interest
Czech Republic · Regulation and compliance
- Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy
European Union, France · Geopolitics and conflict
- Finland cuts power to consumers for lack of electricity
Finland · Energy and resources
- France's National Assembly votes down CETA, the EU-Canada trade deal
France · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- Drought cuts France's first wheat export outlook for 2027-28 by a fifth
France · Supply chains and chokepoints
- The UK cuts or delays a defence or Ukraine pledge for lack of money
United Kingdom · Geopolitics and conflict
- The US raises its tariff on UK goods above 10% or ends the UK's zero drug rate
United Kingdom · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- The Irish coalition loses a Dáil confidence vote
Ireland · Energy and resources
- Sabotage halts Dutch trains or a Rotterdam terminal for a day
Netherlands · Geopolitics and conflict
- Russia breaks the Barents Sea fisheries deal with Norway
Norway, Russia · Geopolitics and conflict
- Norway's gas flows to Europe fall by a third for a week
Norway · Energy and resources
- Norway's Labour minority government falls
Norway · Geopolitics and conflict
- Russia defies Norwegian authority on Svalbard
Norway · Geopolitics and conflict
- Poland bars Chinese-made cars beyond its military sites
Poland · Technology and cyber
- The EU finds Poland off track on its deficit, or Warsaw cuts its 2027 defence budget
Poland · Finance and markets
- Portugal's minority government falls
Portugal · Geopolitics and conflict
- A major agency cuts Slovakia's credit rating
Slovakia · Finance and markets
- Sweden Democrats take seats in the cabinet
Sweden · Geopolitics and conflict
- Greece's next general election gives no party a majority
Greece · Geopolitics and conflict
- A cyberattack halts a French food, health or transport service for a day or more
France · Technology and cyber
- River heat forces three or more French reactors to stop or cut output at once in summer 2027
France · Energy and resources
- England's drought carries into 2027 with a ban on non-essential water use
United Kingdom · Energy and resources
- Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz
Greece · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Gulf crude to the Netherlands stops for a month again
Netherlands · Energy and resources
- Russia detains or fires on an EU ship in reprisal for tanker seizures
Belgium, Russia · Geopolitics and conflict
- Russia puts another Western company's Russian business under state control
Switzerland, France · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- A parts shortage stops a Czech car line for two weeks
Czech Republic · Supply chains and chokepoints
- State sabotage kills someone or shuts a German airport or rail line for a day
Germany · Geopolitics and conflict
- Another mass crossing into Ceuta or Melilla
Spain · Geopolitics and conflict
- Spain and Italy bring back border checks on each other
Spain, Italy · Regulation and compliance
- A month-long stop in EU copper smelting or refining
European Union · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Fuel and cost-of-living protests force a state of emergency or a fuel blockade in France
France · Geopolitics and conflict
- French forces sent to guard Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil port at Yanbu are hit
France, Saudi Arabia · Geopolitics and conflict
- UK forces are drawn into combat with the Houthis
United Kingdom · Geopolitics and conflict
- Irish public-sector strikes return before April 2027
Ireland · Regulation and compliance
- Russia blocks or takes control of an EU bank's Russian unit
Italy, Russia · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- State sabotage shuts a Polish route or site that supports Ukraine for two days
Poland · Geopolitics and conflict
- Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a month
Poland · Energy and resources
- Sweden's Riksdag throws out the government's 2027 budget
Sweden · Finance and markets
- The US puts a tariff on Danish goods over Greenland
Denmark, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- Denmark's economy shrinks two quarters in a row
Denmark · Finance and markets
- Spain's next government caps rents nationwide or curbs foreign home buyers
Spain · Regulation and compliance
- Israeli chip supply to Ireland stops for a month
Ireland · Technology and cyber
- Irish troops deploy without a UN mandate
Ireland · Geopolitics and conflict
- An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-Mandeb
Italy, Yemen · Geopolitics and conflict
- Israel or the US hits back at the Dutch settlement-goods ban with a trade or legal measure
Netherlands · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- Norway blames a state for damage to a subsea cable or pipeline
Norway · Technology and cyber
- Jet fuel limits hit a Portuguese airport
Portugal · Energy and resources
- The US singles out Austria over its neutrality
Austria · Geopolitics and conflict
- A new Russian spy case in Vienna touches the UN, IAEA or OSCE
Austria · Geopolitics and conflict
- Drug-gang violence halts work at the port of Antwerp for a day
Belgium · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Drone reports shut a Danish airport again
Denmark · Technology and cyber
- Drones shut a major Italian airport for three hours
Italy · Technology and cyber
Russia and Eurasia
- Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line
Russia, Ukraine · Geopolitics and conflict
- Russia keeps foreign messaging services blocked nationwide
Russia · Technology and cyber
- The US or EU sanctions a Chinese terminal or buyer for Arctic LNG 2 cargoes
Russia, China · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
Show all risks in Russia and Eurasia
- Attacks halt Kazakhstan's main Black Sea oil terminal for a week or more
Kazakhstan, Russia · Energy and resources
- Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) supply contract with a price
Russia, China, Mongolia · Energy and resources
- Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank
Russia, Ukraine · Geopolitics and conflict
- Russia restarts a reactor at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Russia, Ukraine · Energy and resources
- The EU or the US sanctions a refinery in Kazakhstan over Russian oil
Kazakhstan · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
- Kazakhstan moves to seize assets over the Kashagan sulphur fine
Kazakhstan · Regulation and compliance
- Russia raises taxes again, beyond its 2027 budget package, to cover a record deficit
Russia · Finance and markets
- Ukrainian drones shut a main Russian oil port for a week or more
Russia, Ukraine · Energy and resources
- Kazakhstan's uranium output for 2026 falls short of its target
Kazakhstan · Supply chains and chokepoints
- Russia halts enriched uranium shipments to the US before the US ban takes full effect
Russia, United States · Energy and resources
Sub-Saharan Africa
- South Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre
South Africa · Energy and resources
- The DA leaves South Africa's Government of National Unity
South Africa · Geopolitics and conflict
- The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25%
South Africa · Finance and markets
- The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list
South Africa, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
From our briefs
The risks our briefs follow, with the related questions in our forecast register.
Top risks now
- 1A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026Middle East and North Africa
- Forecast F-0074 · 61%
- 2US tariffs on Canadian goods stay above their 2024 level and the pre-2025 terms are not restored, to 30 Sep 2027Americas
- Forecast F-0173 · 92%
- 3Iran in July 2028: strikes go on, the regime breaks, or a step to the bombMiddle East and North Africa
- Forecast F-0020 + F-0011 + F-0009 · 32%
- 4The 50% US duty on listed Canadian goods lasts to 31 Dec 2026Americas4 of 6 registered outcomes14 of 36 countries read are High; 13 Medium
- 5No fund we track commits C$1bn to a new Canadian build by 31 Oct 2027Americas
- Forecast F-0153 + F-0154 + F-0155 · 57%
- 6A Canadian recession by the end of 2027Americas
- Forecast F-0174 · 25%
Event risks
US tariffs and Canada
Canada’s entry to the US market is no longer secured by a treaty for any good Washington names: a 50% US duty, proclaimed on 20 July 2026, applies to goods of Canada named in three lists.
- Forecast F-0173 · 92%
- Reach 14 of 36 countries read are High
Canada’s capital projects
Large investors pledged capital to Canada, but for 6 of 7 pledges our brief found no placement to 27 September 2026; projects with a published or signed government term went ahead 6 times in 15, against 12 in 58 without.
- Leading outcome F-0152 · 27%
- Reach 8 of 13 countries read are High
Taiwan
Taiwan supplies about a fifth of most large importers’ chips, and the Taiwan Strait carries about a fifth of the world’s sea trade; China’s armed forces have staged no named large exercise around Taiwan since December 2025.
- Leading outcome F-0199 · 47%
- Reach 8 of 20 countries read are High
US–China trade
China’s goods surplus reached a record US$1.18 trillion in 2025 on the revised customs basis; our brief finds China’s export-control leverage suspended, not removed, to 9–10 November 2026; the US–China tariff truce runs to 10 January 2027.
- Leading outcome F-0191 · 63%
Strait closures
Strait of Hormuz
A strait closure. Who depends on it, and for which goods.
Nearest related forecast; not a closure probability. See it on the strait page
Bab el-Mandeb
A strait closure. Who depends on it, and for which goods.
Nearest related forecast; not a closure probability. See it on the strait page
Strait of Malacca
A strait closure. Who depends on it, and for which goods.
No forecast on this strait yet.
Taiwan Strait
A strait closure. Who depends on it, and for which goods.
Scenario cases
Strait of Hormuz closed, restricted or unsafe: a scenario
In a 30-day closure some oil never arrives at all: of the economies shown, China loses the most, 310-317 million barrels.
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb closed together: a scenario
Closing Bab el-Mandeb as well adds delay, not loss: Saudi crude sent round Africa arrives 27-36 days late.
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
Red Sea: half of traffic avoids Bab el-Mandeb for 90 days
Going round the Cape for 90 days loses nothing on lanes with a cited Cape route: 55 million barrels of the economies shown arrive late, most of it the EU's.
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
Taiwan Strait closed to transit for 7 days
No oil flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait, so no volumes are shown; ships routed east of Taiwan add up to 3 days.
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
Strait of Malacca closed for 14 days
Closing the Strait of Malacca causes delay, not loss: ships go by Lombok and Makassar, about 3 days longer.
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
Full analyst view
How the Top 10 is ranked
How the Top 10 is ranked
Each week we rank the risks on this list by one stated rule: the probability in our forecast register, times how many countries the risk reaches.
- Probability. Each risk is tied to one question in our forecast register. Where the question has several alternatives, we add the probabilities of the alternatives that describe the harm, and we name them. The register's figures are used unchanged.
- Reach. We count the countries our published country readings place in the High band for that risk, and add half of those in the Medium band. Low counts zero. The EU (27) entry is not counted as a country; its member countries are counted where our readings list them.
- Rank. We multiply the two and sort from highest. Ties go to the higher probability, then to the earlier resolution date.
Where we have no country readings for a risk yet, reach is the number of countries its forecast names, each counted as Medium, and the item says “reach provisional”. Only open forecasts that resolve within the next 24 months are ranked. A risk is shown only when its probability times its reach comes to 1 or more, so the list can hold fewer than ten.
Our research team drafts the list and the Principal signs it off each week. We do not move items by hand. When we leave an item out, we say so under the list.
What the ranking is not. Reach counts only the countries we have read, so a risk we have read for fewer countries can rank lower than it should. The ranking does not measure how severe a risk is for any one company or country. Each probability is our estimate, scored when its question resolves. General research, not advice.
Notes and limits
- Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice.
- Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
- Nearest related forecast; not a closure probability.
- General research, not advice.