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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

A rating agency cuts Finland's credit rating again

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, S&P, Moody's or Fitch lowers Finland's long-term foreign-currency sovereign rating by at least one notch.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration6
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Ratings: S&P AA+ negative; Moody's Aa1 stable; Fitch AA stable; Scope AA stable; DBRS AA (high) stable; Moody's calendar date 11 Dec 2026, Scope 4 Dec 2026 [1]
  2. S&P made no change on its 23 Oct 2026 calendar date [3]
  3. S&P: deficit 4.2% of GDP in 2026 and 2027 (3.8% in 2025); gross debt near 93% of GDP by 2029; interest 3.8% of revenue by 2029 against 1% in 2021; 2026 growth 1.6% (0.8% in April); guarantees about 27% of GDP; banks about 300% of GDP [4]
  4. All but one of the major parties agreed a debt brake of EUR 8-11bn for the next term; only the Left Alliance rejected it [12]
  5. Finns Party EUR 8bn cuts list plus EUR 1bn other measures [11]

Why it matters

S&P has rated Finland AA+ with a negative outlook since 24 Apr 2026, and held it there on 23 Oct 2026. Fitch already cut Finland to AA on 25 Jul 2025. All three large agencies expect the deficit to stay above the EU's 3% limit and debt to rise past 90% of GDP. The next government, chosen in April 2027, faces a EUR 8-11bn public finance adjustment that all major parties but the Left Alliance have agreed.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: deficits above the EU limit in 2026 and 2027 at all three agencies; rising debt and interest; EU net expenditure breach risk in 2027-28; polls against the coalition. Brakes: S&P held on 23 Oct 2026 and raised growth; Fitch and Moody's stable; cross-party debt brake; large liquid assets.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: one agency cuts one notch.

The other facts on file (4)
  • S&P affirmed AA+ and revised the outlook to negative on fiscal and economic risks [2] (24 Apr 2026)
  • Fitch cut Finland from AA+ to AA on 25 Jul 2025; deficit 4.3% of GDP in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027; debt 92.1% of GDP in 2027; Russia escalation named as a downgrade factor [5] (27 Jul 2026)
  • Moody's: deficit about 4.6% of GDP in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027; EDP deadline end-2028; coalition parties poll below 40% together [7] (16 Jun 2026)
  • Council decision on an excessive deficit 20 Jan 2026; Finland's action report 30 Apr 2026 [9] (30 Apr 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. A rating agency cuts Finland's credit rating again: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. A rating agency cuts Finland's credit rating again: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, S&P, Moody's or Fitch lowers Finland's long-term foreign-currency sovereign rating by at least one notch.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss is shown.
  2. Borrowing costsA cut can raise what the State pays on new debt, with interest already rising [4].
  3. Budget politicsA cut during coalition talks presses the next government towards early, deeper savings [4][12].
  4. GuaranteesGovernment guarantees are about 27% of GDP, mostly to Finnvera [4].

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Finland, European Union
Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Held through the vote

    Agencies wait for the new government's programme; no cut.

  2. S2

    S&P cuts

    A weak 2027 plan or slower growth leads S&P to AA.

  3. S3

    Stable again

    Growth and front-loaded savings let S&P return to stable.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Moody's 11 Dec 2026 date passes with no action
S2The working group's December 2026 consolidation figure
S3A coalition programme with debt on a downward path

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 Parliamentary working group decides the next term's consolidation size [5] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 4 Dec 2026 Scope Ratings calendar date (not a scored agency) [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 11 Dec 2026 Moody's calendar date for Finland [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. Apr 2027 Parliamentary elections [7] Tentative · Outside event
  5. 27 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · FINLAND · strature.net

The other side

A clear multi-year plan after the election could turn S&P's outlook back to stable [4]. Strong exports and data-centre investment are lifting growth and jobs [4][5]. A one-notch S&P cut would still leave Finland in the AA range at all three agencies (Strature's reading of [1]).

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Credit ratings. State Treasury of Finland · 27 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. S&P Global Ratings affirmed Finland's credit rating at 'AA+', revised outlook to negative. State Treasury of Finland · 27 Apr 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. S&P Global Ratings did not change Finland's credit rating. State Treasury of Finland · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. Finland (RatingsDirect full analysis). S&P Global Ratings · 26 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. Finland, Rating Report. Fitch Ratings · 27 Jul 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. Government of Finland - Aa1 stable: Regular update. Moody's Ratings · 16 Jun 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Finland: excessive deficit procedure. European Commission · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  8. Finns Party unveils EUR 8b cuts list, spares small pensions. Yle News · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  9. Finance ministry proposes abolishing child benefits amid sweeping reform suggestions. Yle News · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks