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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

The 30-year gilt yield closes above 6%

The test The UK 30-year benchmark gilt yield closes above 6.00% on any trading day between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth2
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. 30-year gilt yield 5.72% at the end of trading on 28 Oct 2026, after the Budget (over-the-counter quote), 0.03 points below the previous session and 0.54 points above a year earlier [5]
  2. A second report put the 30-year yield down 3.5 basis points to about 5.71% on 28 Oct 2026 (as reported, low-confidence source) [17]
  3. Budget 28 Oct 2026 (OBR forecast, as published by HM Treasury): stability rule met by 15bn pounds in 2029-30, rising to 22bn pounds in 2030-31; about 14bn pounds a year more debt interest than in the March forecast [15]
  4. DMO 2026-27 net financing requirement revised to 258.6bn pounds (up 7.4bn pounds), met by 250.6bn pounds of gilt sales (up 4.4bn pounds) and 8.0bn pounds of Treasury bills [16]
  5. DMO 28 Oct 2026: long conventional gilt sales cut to 15.5bn pounds from 22.4bn pounds; short conventional raised to 107.6bn pounds from 95.0bn pounds [16]
  6. HM Treasury, 28 Oct 2026: headroom is 9bn pounds lower than in March, more than accounted for by the conflict's impact on debt interest costs [18]
Show 11 earlier changes
  1. Budget on 28 Oct 2026, John Healey's first; first OBR forecasts since the Iran war [8]
  2. Bank of England fitted 20-year par yield 5.75% on 1 Oct, 5.76% on 7 Oct, 5.79% on 8 Oct and 5.58% on 22 Oct 2026 [12]
  3. CPI 3.5% in September 2026, up from 3.1% [7]
  4. The 30-year gilt yield rose above 6% on 1 Oct 2026, a level not seen since 1998; lenders withdrew fixed deals below 5% [4]
  5. Rising yields cut the fiscal cushion by about 12bn pounds, about half the OBR's 23.6bn March figure (Bloomberg, 1 Sep, as reported by MPA) [4]
  6. 30-year gilt above 6% during the day on 1 Oct 2026, easing to about 5.97% by the London close [11]
  7. City AM: 30-year yield touched 6.04% early on 1 Oct 2026 (intraday); RSM and other City firms said the rise could cut about 9bn pounds from headroom [13]
  8. Bank Rate held at 3.75% on 17 Sep 2026 by 6-3; CPI seen near 3.75% in Q4 2026 and slightly above 4% in Q1 2027; active gilt sales 20bn pounds a year from a 488bn stock [6]
  9. DMO sold 4.25bn pounds of the 5.375% 2056 gilt at 5.8168%, a record for the DMO; orders above 87bn pounds [2]
  10. Debt interest forecast at 109bn pounds, 8.4% of public spending (OBR figures, as reported) [3]
  11. 30-year gilt about 5.9% intraday and 5.85% close on 1 Sep 2026, highest since 1998; 10-year closed at 5.21% [1]

Why it matters

Britain's 30-year borrowing cost closed at 5.85% on 1 Sep 2026, the highest since 1998, and passed 6% during the day on 1 Oct. John Healey's first Budget, on 28 Oct, met the stability rule with 15bn pounds of headroom in 2029-30, 9bn pounds less than in March, and raised this year's gilt sales by 4.4bn pounds to 250.6bn pounds, mostly in short gilts, while cutting long conventional sales to 15.5bn pounds from 22.4bn pounds. The yield ended 28 Oct slightly lower, at about 5.72%. A rate rise at the Bank of England and the inflation path are the tests ahead.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: close to the defined level and already above it during the day on 1 Oct; CPI inflation up in September and seen higher in early 2027; a hike expected on 5 Nov; continuing Bank gilt sales; a year-long window.

Why Impact 4 Key price: the 30-year gilt yield; threshold case one close just above 6.00%.

The other facts on file (1)
  • Chancellor, 31 Jul 2026: we will abide by the fiscal rules, retaining a buffer [14] (31 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The 30-year gilt yield closes above 6%: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The 30-year gilt yield closes above 6%: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

The UK 30-year benchmark gilt yield closes above 6.00% on any trading day between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct channel sourced; global long-bond sell-off is a separate card.
  2. Public financesHigher cost on a 258.6bn pound net financing need (DMO remit, 28 Oct); headroom 15bn pounds in 2029-30, 9bn pounds less than in March.
  3. HouseholdsFixed mortgages reprice with swaps that track gilts.
  4. Inflation and the BankA 6% close would come with a Bank of England on the move.

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
United Kingdom
Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    The budget calms it

    A credible plan and a single hike bring the yield back toward 5.5%.

  2. S2

    Grinding up

    Inflation tops 4% in early 2027, the Bank hikes twice and the yield closes above 6% in the first half of 2027.

  3. S3

    A sharp break

    A budget miss or a new oil shock pushes a close above 6% within weeks, and gilt sales are slowed.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The yield after the OBR forecast on 28 Oct 2026
S2The 4 Feb 2027 Monetary Policy Report
S3A close above 5.9% before 5 Nov 2026

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 5 Nov 2026 MPC decision with Monetary Policy Report [10] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 17 Dec 2026 MPC decision [10] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 4 Feb 2027 MPC decision with Monetary Policy Report [10] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 18 Mar 2027 MPC decision [10] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. 25 Oct 2027 Window ends Declared · Window

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · UNITED KINGDOM · strature.net

The other side

Holders of new long gilts would receive the highest yields since the late 1990s; the September sale drew orders of more than 87bn pounds. (Facts only; not a recommendation.) A budget that rebuilds headroom could narrow the UK's premium over other G7 borrowers (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

18 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. UK 30-year government bond yield hits highest level since 1998 (Xinhua). The Star · 2 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. UK pays record yield on 30-year gilt despite bumper demand. AJ Bell (Alliance News) · 9 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Britain sells 30-year debt at record yield as borrowing costs pressure budget plans. Traders Union · 8 Sep 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Former BoE economist warns on gilts as Budget tests UK mortgage rates. Mortgage Professional (MPA) · 7 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. United Kingdom 30-year bond yield. Trading Economics · 28 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, September 2026. Bank of England · 17 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026. Office for National Statistics · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Budget 2026. Institute for Government · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. UK inflation can seal the deal on the BoE's November rate hike (Bloomberg). The Star · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Upcoming MPC dates. Bank of England · 21 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. FTSE 100 falls 1.7% as UK 30-year gilt yield breaks 6%. Share Talk · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Yields from British Government Securities, 20-year nominal par yield (IUDLNPY), daily. Bank of England · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. Global bond sell-off: Headache for Healey as gilt yields top six per cent. City AM · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  14. Chancellor letter to the Treasury Select Committee: Budget 2026 date. HM Treasury, GOV.UK · 31 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  15. Budget 2026. HM Treasury, GOV.UK · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  16. Revision to the DMO Financing Remit 2026-27: Budget 2026. UK Debt Management Office · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  17. British markets take Healey's first budget in their stride. EWU News, via rallies.ai · 28 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  18. Budget 2026: Breathing space for today, hope for the future. HM Treasury, GOV.UK · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 4 · last change: reviewed · All risks