England's drought carries into 2027 with a ban on non-essential water use
The test A drought order banning non-essential use of water (a NEUB), or an emergency drought order, is in force in any water company area in England on any day between 1 Jan 2027 and 25 Oct 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ Mid-October 2026: severe drought declared in parts of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, East Sussex and West Sussex (GOV.UK, 20 Oct).
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Severe drought declared in parts of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, East Sussex and West Sussex [1]
- NEUB applications from South East Water, South West Water and Southern Water under consideration by the Environment Secretary [1]
- Drought permits granted for Wimbleball and Ardingly; Wessex Water preparing seven more [1]
- England needs at least 120% of average rainfall over six months to be out of drought by spring [1]
- England reservoir stocks 55% at end-September, 19% below the LTA; six reservoirs or reservoir groups exceptionally low [2]
- September rainfall 65% of LTA; 17 hydrological areas driest April-September since 1871 [2]
- River flows projected below normal or lower across almost all of England by end-March 2027; groundwater below normal or lower everywhere by September 2027; south-east river flows more likely normal by end-September 2027 [2]
Why it matters
South-east and south-west England had their driest April to September in more than a century, and three water companies have asked the Environment Secretary for bans on non-essential water use. England's reservoirs were 55% full at the end of September, and the Environment Agency expects river flows and groundwater to stay below normal into 2027. No such ban has been imposed in England since 2006.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: three applications pending; driest April-September in over a century in the south; flows and groundwater projected below normal into 2027.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case one NEUB in one company area.
The other facts on file (4)
- 29 Jul 2026: EA moved seven areas into drought: East Anglia; Hertfordshire and London; Thames Valley; Hampshire and the Isle of Wight; Devon and Cornwall; West Midlands; Wessex [7] (29 Jul 2026)
- No NEUB imposed in England since 2006; South East Water withdrew a NEUB application in December 2025 [5] (14 Aug 2026)
- 1,506 abstraction licence restrictions due to low river flows [7] (29 Jul 2026)
- Southern Water application for Hampshire and the Isle of Wight reported; 165,000 people around Southampton and Eastleigh could face shortages; the Environment Secretary had 28 days to decide (as reported) [6] (12 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
A drought order banning non-essential use of water (a NEUB), or an emergency drought order, is in force in any water company area in England on any day between 1 Jan 2027 and 25 Oct 2027.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian channel sourced.
- Business water useA NEUB stops non-domestic pools, mechanical vehicle washers and cleaning of premises and windows.
- Farming and foodAbstraction restrictions hit irrigation.
- Water supply165,000 people near Southampton and Eastleigh at risk of shortages (Southern Water, as reported) [6].
- RiversLower reservoir releases under drought permits.
Sectors 1
- Agriculture and food
Countries 1
- United Kingdom primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- United Kingdom
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
A wet winter ends it
Autumn and winter rain refill reservoirs, the applications lapse and nothing is in force in 2027.
- S2
A ban rolls into 2027
The Secretary grants one of the three applications this autumn and it is still in force on 1 Jan 2027.
- S3
A third dry summer
Winter rain falls short, groundwater stays low and bans are granted in spring or summer 2027.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | England reservoir stocks back near average in the January 2027 report |
| S2 | A decision announced by the end of December 2026 |
| S3 | The March 2027 water situation report showing flows below normal |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Water situation report for October [4] Tentative · Outside event
- Nov 2026 Decision on the three NEUB applications (Nov-Dec; Strature's estimate) Tentative · Strature date
- 1 Jan 2027 Window for the event opens Declared · Window
- Apr 2027 Water situation report for March; spring test of the 120% rainfall need [4] Tentative · Strature date
- 25 Oct 2027 Window ends Declared · Window
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The other side
The drought has pushed investment and reform up the agenda: farmers ask for faster approval of on-farm reservoirs and more flexible abstraction licences (NFU, 30 Jul) [8]. Firms that sell water storage, leak repair and water-saving equipment gain trade (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- United Kingdom
- World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150 Shares a channel: A second dry harvest feeds food prices [7].
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Shares a channel: Both are weather-driven supply risks for 2026-27; no causal link to UK rain is sourced.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Water company bosses update National Drought Group on resilience. GOV.UK (Defra and Environment Agency) · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Water situation: September 2026 summary. Environment Agency · 13 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Water situation: national monthly reports for England 2026. Environment Agency · 13 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Golf clubs face first business water restrictions in 20 years as two suppliers move on non-essential use bans. The Golf Business · 14 Aug 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Southern Water seeks rare ban as 165,000 at risk. Eastern Eye · 12 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Half of England in drought as farm water pressure mounts. FarmingUK · 29 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Defra Secretary faces calls for faster planning and abstraction reform. FarmingUK · 30 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks