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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · Taiwan Strait & China

China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027

The test On 1 January 2027, with no extension announced by China, China's pre-relief additional tariffs (100% on canola meal and peas, 25% on lobster and crab) apply again to at least one of these Canadian goods. (F-0169 says "seafood"; China's relief covers lobster and crab only.)

Not under way · Confidence: high · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth1
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 5 to 4.

Why it matters

China suspended its 100% duties on Canadian canola meal and peas and its 25% duties on lobster and crab from 1 March to 31 December 2026. Unless Beijing extends the suspension, the old rates return on 1 January 2027; no extension has been announced. Strature's register puts a lapse at 30% (Strature forecast F-0169, 1 Oct 2026); the loss would fall on a few Canadian farm and fishing sectors.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: no extension announced [3]; Ottawa ties further relief to steel remissions, which also end on 31 Dec 2026 [5][1]. Brakes: the January 2026 arrangement [1] and continuing talks [5]; canola seed got a five-year rate [4].

Why Impact 3 Goods covered worth C$2.6bn [1] (about US$1.84bn at the Fed H.10 rate [7]), a gross at-risk figure; months; other buyers at modest cost. Canada hit on one channel only.

The other facts on file (6)
  • Preliminary arrangement of 16 Jan 2026: canola meal, lobsters, peas and crabs, C$2.6bn of Canadian agricultural goods, free of anti-discrimination tariffs from 1 Mar to end-2026; 49,000 EV quota at 6.1% [1] (16 Jan 2026)
  • Tariff Commission Announcement No. 2 of 2026: rapeseed meal and peas 100% to 0%, lobsters and crabs 25% to 0%, 1 Mar to 31 Dec 2026; 2025 rates return 1 Jan 2027 unless extended [4] (18 Mar 2026)
  • Canola seed combined rate about 14.9% (5.9% anti-dumping plus 9% MFN; AAFC rounds to 15%) to 1 Mar 2031 [4] (18 Mar 2026)
  • Canola meal exports to China C$918m (2024) to C$288m (2025); peas C$303m to C$240m; fish and seafood C$1.3bn to C$877m [3] (22 Jun 2026)
  • MacDonald blamed 'remissions relative to steel' for no relief beyond 2026 [5] (21 Jan 2026)
  • 100% on canola oil and 25% on pork still in force; no extension in AAFC note [3] (22 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

Taiwan Strait11. China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027: Low impact · possible1 · Low impact · possibleTaiwan StraitHong KongTokyoCHINAJAPANSOUTH KOREANORTH KOREAVIETNAMEAST CHINA SEASOUTH CHINA SEAPHILIPPINE SEA0500 kmat 30°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Taiwan Strait11. China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027: Low impact · possibleTaiwan StraitShanghaiCHINASOUTH KOREAEAST CHINA SEA0300 kmat 30°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

On 1 January 2027, with no extension announced by China, China's pre-relief additional tariffs (100% on canola meal and peas, 25% on lobster and crab) apply again to at least one of these Canadian goods. (F-0169 says "seafood"; China's relief covers lobster and crab only.)

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. Canada-China fileEV access and steel remissions back into play [1][5] (Strature's view).
  2. Canola mealChina becomes a 100% tariff market again [4]; meal goes to other buyers, as in 2025 [3].
  3. PeasPea exports to China face 100% again [4].
  4. Lobster and crabA 25% duty returns on Atlantic shellfish [4].

Sectors 1

  • Agriculture and food

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Canada, China
Sectors
Agriculture and food

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Rolled over

    China extends the suspension for 2027, perhaps tied to steel remissions.

  2. S2

    Lapse, then talks

    The duties return on 1 January and a new round reopens steel and EVs.

  3. S3

    Wider deal

    The relief becomes permanent and canola oil or pork are added.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1a Tariff Commission notice or Canada-China statement before 31 Dec 2026
S2no notice by 1 Dec 2026 and Canada's steel remissions not extended
S3a ministerial meeting naming canola oil before 31 Mar 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

30%F-0169 · China's tariff relief on Canadian peas, canola meal and seafood lapses at the end of 2026
Strature forecast F-0169: 30% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 1 Jan 2027
050100%

Where the card uses it F-0169 resolves. Strature forecast F-0169: 30% (1 Oct 2026)

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 31 Dec 2026 China's tariff suspension on canola meal, peas, lobster and crab ends [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 31 Dec 2026 Canada's remissions on some Chinese steel and aluminum products end [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 1 Jan 2027 F-0169 resolves. Strature forecast F-0169: 30% (1 Oct 2026) [6] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  4. 1 Mar 2031 China's anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola seed expires unless renewed [3] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

A rollover would lock in a market Canada lost in 2025 [3], and canola seed already has a five-year rate of about 14.9% [4]; a lapse would push meal and pulse sellers to widen their buyer list (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Backgrounder: Preliminary Joint Arrangement on Addressing Bilateral Economic and Trade Issues between Canada and the People's Republic of China. Global Affairs Canada · 16 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Question Period Note: Bilateral agricultural trade with China (AAFC-2026-QP-00016). Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada · 22 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. China adjusts additional tariffs on certain Canadian imports and imposes anti-dumping duties. Thomson Reuters ONESOURCE Global Trade · 18 Mar 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Canada-China deal on canola limited by anti-dumping steel tariffs: agriculture minister. CTV News (via CP24) · 21 Jan 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Forecast F-0169 (brief C-006) and key question KQ-10. Strature · 1 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates (weekly). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 5 to 4 · All risks