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World risk · Regulation and compliance · Food, climate & health

Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy levels in 2027

The test Singapore's 24-hour PSI reads above 100 (the "unhealthy" range) in any region on 5 or more days between 1 Jan 2027 and 31 Dec 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth5
Duration3
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. NEA forecast PSI 70-100 for 26 Oct; Borneo and Sumatra stations unhealthy to hazardous [12]
  2. NEA reported 15 consecutive days of unhealthy air quality, against eight in 2015 (as reported by AFP) [6]
  3. Nusantara Atlas: 1,916,588 hectares burned Jan-Sep 2026, 38% above the same point in 2019; last official figure 202,000 hectares to end-July [6]
  4. NEA issued Transboundary Haze Pollution Act notices to 10 Indonesian companies (seven on Sumatra fires, three on 19 Oct on Kalimantan fires); notices are not a finding of legal responsibility [7]
  5. IRI model-based forecast: El Nino 60% for May-Jul 2027, 37% for Jun-Aug 2027, when neutral is most likely at 51% [2]
  6. Respiratory cases in seven Indonesian provinces 283,270 by 13 Oct; nearly 2,000 flights in Indonesia affected 11 Aug-12 Oct; schools closed in Indonesia, Timor-Leste and some Malaysian states [9]
Show 5 earlier changes
  1. ASMC Alert Level 3 for southern ASEAN; rain to return as the monsoon rainband moves south from late October [13]
  2. Singapore's 24-hour PSI entered the unhealthy range on 4 Sep 2026, the first time since October 2023; peak 192 in the central region on 9 Oct [4]
  3. All five Singapore regions unhealthy on 13 Oct; west highest at 172 [3]
  4. Central PSI 173 on 9 Oct, beating the earlier 2026 high of 167 on 29 Sep [5]
  5. NOAA: strong to very strong El Nino likely through January-March 2027 [1]

Why it matters

Singapore's run of unhealthy air in 2026 is longer than in 2015, the region's worst haze crisis: 15 days in a row against eight. A satellite monitor counts over 1.9 million hectares burned in Indonesia by the end of September. The question is whether 2027 repeats. The El Niño behind this year's drought is forecast to fade by mid-2027, the main brake on a repeat.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: 1.9 million hectares burned and drained peat; Indonesia had not accepted outside help (AFP). Brakes: IRI model-based forecast makes neutral most likely by Jun-Aug 2027; fire risk peaks in Aug-Sep; no unhealthy day from Oct 2023 to 4 Sep 2026; new enforcement in 2026.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case five unhealthy days in Singapore.

The other facts on file (2)
  • FireWatch: more than 96,000 hotspots by 27 Jul 2026, the highest for that date in any monitored year [10] (29 Jul 2026)
  • Nearly 600 schools in Sarawak, about 200,000 students, closed in one week in August [8] (24 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy levels in 2027: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy levels in 2027: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Singapore's 24-hour PSI reads above 100 (the "unhealthy" range) in any region on 5 or more days between 1 Jan 2027 and 31 Dec 2027.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian channel sourced.
  2. Health and daily lifeUnhealthy days cut outdoor work and school activity; NEA plans N95 masks at very unhealthy levels [3].
  3. Air travel and tourismNearly 2,000 flights in Indonesia affected in two months of 2026 [9].
  4. Trade rules for plantation goodsEUDR applies from 30 Dec 2026 (large and medium) and 30 Jun 2027 (micro and small), and to certain palm oil derivatives from 30 Dec 2027 [14]; Singapore haze notices can lead to prosecution and fines [7].
  5. Regional politicsIn 2026 Indonesia did not accept offers of help from Malaysia and Singapore, AFP and Reuters reported [6][9].

Sectors 1

  • Agriculture and food

Countries 5

Who is exposed

Countries
Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, East Timor
Sectors
Agriculture and food

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    A quiet year after El Nino

    El Nino fades by mid-2027, the dry season is normal and Singapore sees few or no unhealthy days, as between October 2023 and 4 Sep 2026.

  2. S2

    A lingering El Nino

    El Nino holds through mid-2027, peat dried by 2026 burns again and Singapore passes 5 unhealthy days in August-October.

  3. S3

    A dry early 2027

    Fires restart in Riau and Sumatra in an early dry spell and smoke reaches Singapore before the main season.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1IRI or NOAA forecasts in spring 2027 showing neutral by June-August
S2El Nino still forecast for July-September in the April 2027 outlooks
S3An ASMC alert level for southern ASEAN raised in the first half of 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Oct 2026 Rain returns to southern ASEAN as the monsoon rainband moves south (late October to November) [13] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 12 Nov 2026 Next NOAA ENSO diagnostic discussion [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 30 Dec 2026 EUDR applies to large and medium operators [14] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. Jan 2027 Strong El Nino likely to persist through January-March 2027 [1] Tentative · Window
  5. Jun 2027 Main haze risk window June-October 2027 (dry season usually April to October) [9] Tentative · Window
  6. 30 Jun 2027 EUDR applies to micro and small operators [14] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  7. 30 Dec 2027 EUDR applies to certain palm oil derivatives (Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/2102) [14] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Pressure for change is higher than in any year since 2015, when Singapore's unhealthy run was shorter [6] (Strature's view). Singapore is using its haze law against 10 firms [7], Indonesia's president has issued directives against slash-and-burn on peatland [7], and the government's strategy rests on rewetting peat, for which officials estimate more than 17,000 more water-control structures, such as canal blocks, are needed [10]. Firms that sell peat rewetting, fire detection, firefighting aircraft and supply-chain traceability gain demand (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

13 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. ENSO diagnostic discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. IRI ENSO Forecast (October 2026). International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University · 19 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Haze in Singapore persists; 24-hour PSI remains unhealthy for all regions. The Star (The Straits Times/ANN) · 13 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. Hazy conditions persist as PSI remains unhealthy across Singapore. The Star (The Straits Times/ANN) · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Haze in Singapore: PSI hits 173 in central region, a new high for 2026. The Star (The Straits Times/ANN) · 9 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. 'Utter destruction': Indonesia fires have burned nearly two million hectares: monitor. The Star (AFP) · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Singapore expands crackdown on Indonesian companies linked to haze. AP (via News4JAX) · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Indonesia intensifies aerial firefighting as wildfire haze spreads to Malaysia. AP (via FOX59) · 24 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Why is the haze so bad in Southeast Asia this year?. SBS News (Reuters) · 18 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Indonesia shows elevated fire hotspot activity in 2026 as super El Nino threat looms. Mongabay · 29 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Haze update and 24-hour PSI forecast. National Environment Agency, Singapore · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Regional haze situation and outlook. ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre · 16 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. Regulation on deforestation-free products. European Commission · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks