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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict · Elections & unrest

Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the government of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands or Poland (the six largest EU economies) resigns, falls in a confidence or censure vote, or declares a nationwide state of emergency, and the resignation statement, the adopted motion or the emergency decree names protests, fuel prices or the cost of living as a reason (a resignation after a scheduled election does not count).

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 17 Oct 2026: about 550,000 marched in France against the cost of living (Interior Ministry count, reported by Belga/AFP and Economie Matin).

Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth3
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Debate on the first part resumed on 27 Oct; on the agenda again on 28 Oct [21]
  2. Conference of Presidents: solemn vote on the whole bill kept on 17 Nov; next Conference 3 Nov [20]
  3. Protests recorded in 11 European countries in 2026, many over fuel and living costs, two outside the EU; Italian hauliers and farmers struck over diesel [2]
  4. OAT-Bund 10-year spread 174.6 bp on 22 Oct and 171.8 bp on 23 Oct 2026 [7]
  5. Moody's kept France at Aa3, negative outlook [10]
  6. Italy's Council of Ministers approved a public security decree-law, with an offence of organised violence at demonstrations [13]
Show 9 earlier changes
  1. First-part vote of 20 Oct postponed over the number of amendments [16]
  2. Conference of Presidents: solemn vote on the first part set for 3 Nov 2026 (moved from 20 Oct); debate to resume 27 Oct [19]
  3. Ministry's consolidated count for 17 Oct, as reported: 550,000 marchers, 2,397 arrests, 997 police and gendarmes injured [11]
  4. France, 17 Oct 2026: about 550,000 marchers (Interior Minister), 800,000 (organisers); 1,200 detentions announced by the PM; 150 police injured [1]
  5. Socialist motion to reject the 2027 budget bill failed, 149 for, 236 against [14]
  6. Budget expected by year-end by ordinance or 49.3; a 100 bp rise adds about EUR25bn of gross interest costs across households, firms and government over three to six months [6]
  7. Lecornu II is a minority coalition; censure motions failed 271/289 (16 Oct 2025) and 256/288 (14 Jan 2026) [4]
  8. Royal Decree 806/2026 dissolves the Cortes and sets Spain's general election for 29 Nov 2026 [12]
  9. Assembly schedule of 29 Sep: solemn vote on the first part 20 Oct, on the whole bill 17 Nov [15]

Why it matters

Protests, many over fuel and living costs, are recorded in 11 European countries in 2026 by an encyclopedia page. In France on 17 Oct about 550,000 people marched by the Interior Ministry's count, and the Prime Minister announced 1,200 detentions. No government of a large EU economy has fallen over the protests so far; France's minority government is the most exposed.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: the 17 Oct riots, a minority government, two French governments ended in 2025, spreads at a one-year high, protests recorded in 11 European countries.

Why Impact 4 Key price the OAT-Bund spread; no cited move tied to a fall.

The other facts on file (1)
  • Presidential election set for 18 Apr and 2 May 2027 [17] (1 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy: Elevated impact · unlikely1 · Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINGERMANYITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy: Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the government of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands or Poland (the six largest EU economies) resigns, falls in a confidence or censure vote, or declares a nationwide state of emergency, and the resignation statement, the adopted motion or the emergency decree names protests, fuel prices or the cost of living as a reason (a resignation after a scheduled election does not count).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced; slower CETA ratification and policy drift.
  2. Bond marketsFrance's spread to Germany is the widest among large euro area states on the data read [7][18]; Allianz Trade's political-crisis scenario puts it above 200 bp with contagion [6].
  3. Borrowing costsA 100 bp rise adds about EUR25bn of gross interest costs across French households, firms and government over three to six months (Allianz Trade) [6].
  4. EU decisionsA caretaker government slows EU budget, energy and trade files.

Sectors 3

  • Banks and insurers
  • Energy and pipelines
  • Ports and logistics

Who is exposed

Countries
France, Spain, Germany, Italy
Sectors
Banks and insurers, Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
Goods
Refined fuels

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Contained

    France passes its budget by 49.3 or ordinance and protests fade before the April election.

  2. S2

    A fall in Paris

    A censure motion that cites living costs is adopted and the government falls before the presidential election.

  3. S3

    Emergency rule

    Riots on the scale of 17 Oct recur and a government declares a state of emergency.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No censure motion adopted by 31 Dec 2026
S2A motion reaching the 288-289 votes needed
S3A day of arrests on the scale of 17 Oct

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2026 National Assembly solemn vote on the budget's first part [19] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 17 Nov 2026 National Assembly solemn vote on the whole 2027 budget bill (kept by the Conference of Presidents on 27 Oct) [15] [20] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 29 Nov 2026 Spanish general election [12] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 18 Apr 2027 French presidential election, first round [17] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. 2 May 2027 French presidential election, second round [17] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Pressure on living costs can speed relief that lasts: fuel-tax cuts, wage deals, faster housebuilding and cheaper home energy. A budget deal after the protests could ease the pressure on public finances before the 2027 election [17] (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

17 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Bilan de 1.200 interpellations après la journée de manifestation chaotique du 17 octobre (Belga/AFP). Paris Match Belgique · 18 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. 2026 European unrest. Wikipedia · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Second Lecornu government. Wikipedia · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Toasted, not burnt: France's bond sell-off and the road to the 2027 election. Allianz Trade · 9 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. OAT / Bund spread today. Ideal Investisseur · 23 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. France dodges downgrade as Moody's keeps Aa3 rating. Seoul Economic Daily · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Manifestations du 17 octobre : un week-end marqué par des violences, des pillages et d'importantes dégradations. Economie Matin · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Real Decreto 806/2026, de 5 de octubre, de disolución del Congreso de los Diputados y del Senado y de convocatoria de elecciones. Boletín Oficial del Estado · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Comunicato stampa del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 193. Governo italiano · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Scrutin n° 8707: motion de rejet préalable du projet de loi de finances pour 2027. Assemblée nationale · 13 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Organisation de la discussion budgétaire. Assemblée nationale, Direction de la Séance · 29 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Budget 2027 (vote on the first part postponed). Acteurs Publics · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. Compte rendu du Conseil des ministres du mercredi 1er juillet 2026. Présidence de la République · 1 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  14. Long-term interest rates for convergence purposes, 10 years, monthly (FR, DE, IT, ES, NL). ECB Data Portal · 2026-09 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  15. Relevé de conclusions de la Conférence des présidents, réunion du mardi 20 octobre 2026. Assemblée nationale · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  16. Relevé de conclusions de la Conférence des présidents, réunion du mardi 27 octobre 2026. Assemblée nationale · 27 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  17. Séance publique, ordre du jour (suite du projet de loi de finances pour 2027, première partie). Assemblée nationale · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: scores unchanged · All risks