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Europe's right turn: the RN in France, the AfD in Germany, Reform UK

The test Between 25 October 2026 and 25 October 2027, one of three parties that Strature groups here as the national-populist right (the Rassemblement National, the AfD or Reform UK) wins national executive power in France, Germany or the UK. That means an RN candidate elected President of France, or an RN prime minister appointed, or the AfD in a federal coalition, or a Reform UK government. In practice, inside this window it would come through the French presidential election of 18 April and 2 May 2027, or through a snap legislative election in France after a dissolution.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
7High steady this month
Breadth7
Depth7
Duration9
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

France is where it could happen first. Le Pen leads every first-round poll for April 2027, at about 34% on average, and leads every tested run-off; the AfD leads German polls at 26-30% but the next federal vote is due in winter 2029; Reform UK has fallen back to 21.3% in PolitPro's trend (27 October), and the next UK election must be held by 15 August 2029. French bond markets are watching: the spread over Bunds reached 174.6bp on 22 October, its widest in at least a year.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: Le Pen first in every October poll; leads every tested run-off; the appeal ruling lets her stand; the campaign is under way.

Why Impact 7 A French turn reaches the EU budget and sanctions (unanimity), EUR 90bn of Ukraine lending and the EUR 131bn defence window (about US$247bn together), CETA and Mercosur ratification, and a bond market with 36% foreign holders.

The other facts on file (50)
  • The nine polls in the field from 12 to 22 October 2026 give Le Pen 31% to 36%. [3]
  • Ifop-Fiducial for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio had her at 36% (fieldwork 17-19 October, sample 1,928). [63]
  • Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche had her at 32.5% (14-16 October, sample 1,701). [64]
  • Ipsos BVA for Le Parisien had her at 33.5%, with a stated margin of ±2.8 points (21-22 October, sample 1,500). [65]
  • Odoxa's large survey (sample about 12,000, 24 September to 7 October) gave her 37% or 38%, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon second at 18% to 18.5%. [5]
  • Our simple mean of the nine polls is 33.9% [3]; the EPOC aggregator gives 34.2%. [4]
  • OpinionWay for CNews (21-22 October, sample 973) gives Le Pen 56% against Édouard Philippe [66], and Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL (19-21 October, sample 2,094) gives her 57%. [67]
  • Across October her share against Philippe runs from 52% (YouGov for Le HuffPost, 12-15 October [68]) and 52.5% (Elabe [64]) to 57%. [3] [67]
  • Against Mélenchon she scores 67% to 70% [3]; OpinionWay has 69% and Harris 70%. [66] [67]
  • Jordan Bardella, the RN's president, was not tested in October; his average in older run-off polls is 55.5%. [4]
  • On 7 July 2026 the Paris Court of Appeal upheld Le Pen's embezzlement conviction. It set 45 months of ineligibility, 30 of them suspended, and a one-year sentence served with an electronic tag. [6] [7]
  • The court counted the ineligibility already enforced since 31 March 2025, so she can stand in April 2027. [7]
  • She has appealed to the Court of Cassation, so the conviction is not final while that appeal is pending. The appeal suspends the sentence, and the court said it "could" rule no later than early April 2027, a timetable it said could change. Bardella remains the back-up candidate. [6]
  • At a campaign rally in Orléans, reported by dpa on 25 October 2026, before about 8,500 people by the organisers' count, Le Pen said she wants Bardella as prime minister. [9]
  • She promised automatic deportation of foreign criminals and lower energy taxes. [9]
  • AFP reported on 5 September 2026 that Bardella said: "As soon as we win, we will put a constitutional referendum on immigration to the French people", including a "national priority" for social aid. [10]
  • AFP reports that the RN wants to call it under Article 11, which bypasses the Senate, and quotes a constitutional lawyer who expects the Constitutional Council could annul the vote. [10]
  • The Prime Minister is Sébastien Lecornu. [32]
  • On Saturday 17 October 2026, demonstrations over purchasing power and the cost of living drew 550,000 people by the Interior Ministry's count (800,000 by the organisers'), and in several towns turned to violence and looting; 2,397 people were arrested and 997 police and gendarmes injured. [69]
  • President Macron asked Lecornu to consult the parties, unions and local authorities; no national state of emergency had been announced by 19 October. [69]
  • Pollsters have since asked voters about curfews, bans on protests and a state of emergency. [70]
  • The eight latest polls listed by Wahlrecht.de, published 1 to 24 October 2026, put the AfD at 26% to 30% and the CDU/CSU at 18% to 23%. [1]
  • INSA for Bild am Sonntag (fieldwork 19-23 October, sample 1,209) has the AfD at 30% and the Union at 19%. [2]
  • Forsa (20 October) has 27% against 20%. [1]
  • Our simple mean of the eight is AfD 27.9% and CDU/CSU 20.3%. [1]
  • At the February 2025 federal election the AfD won 20.8% and the Union 28.5%. [1]
  • The AfD won 18.8% in Baden-Württemberg on 8 March, in the official final result [26], and 19.5% in Rhineland-Palatinate on 22 March (+11.2 points). [27]
  • On 6 September it won 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt and 39 of 83 seats, 3 short of a majority. [23]
  • The new Landtag met on 6 October; Sven Schulze's CDU-led cabinet stays in office as caretaker, there is no fixed deadline to elect a Minister-President, and the AfD's Ulrich Siegmund plans to stand in December; a first-round win needs 42 votes. [71]
  • On 20 September the AfD came first in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with 38.2% and 32 of 71 seats, in the preliminary result [60], and third in Berlin with 16.3%. [25]
  • In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the SPD, the Left and the Greens are in coalition negotiations, and the new Landtag first met on 20 October. [24]
  • In Berlin every party in the new parliament has ruled out a coalition with the AfD. [25]
  • On 2 May 2025 the domestic intelligence service (BfV) announced that it classed the AfD as "confirmed right-wing extremist". [59]
  • On 26 February 2026 the Cologne Administrative Court suspended that label until the main case is decided, so the party stays a "suspected case". [22]
  • The main case is likely to take years. [22]
  • YouGov for The Times and Sky News (18-19 October 2026, sample 2,520) has Labour at 27%, the Conservatives at 23% and Reform UK at 22%. [11]
  • More in Common (19 October), Opinium (23 October), Ipsos (22 October) and Find Out Now (22 October) put Reform at 20% to 22%. [12]
  • The mean of these five, the latest poll from each, is Labour 28.6%, Conservatives 22.2% and Reform 21.2%. [11] [12]
  • Other October polls run higher: Deltapoll (19 October) and Survation (5 October) have Reform at 24%, Freshwater (11 October) at 23%. [12]
  • PolitPro's weighted trend puts Reform at 21.3% on 27 October, just ahead of the Conservatives at 21.1%. [12]
  • In May, Techne had it at 29%. [12]
  • Andy Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as Labour leader on 17 July 2026 [16] and was Prime Minister by 20 July. [17]
  • In English local elections on 7 May 2026, Reform won nearly 1,500 councillors and 14 councils, on a projected national share of 26%. [15]
  • It won 17 of the Scottish Parliament's 129 seats, level with Labour, behind the SNP's 58. [14]
  • In Wales it won 34 of 96 Senedd seats with 29.3%; Plaid Cymru leads a minority government with 43 seats. [13]
  • In Hungary, Péter Magyar's Tisza beat Viktor Orbán's Fidesz on 12 April 2026, with 53.65% and 138 of 199 seats in preliminary results. [47]
  • In the Netherlands, D66 and Geert Wilders's PVV each won 26 of 150 seats in October 2025. [48]
  • In Czechia, Andrej Babiš's coalition of ANO, the SPD and the Motorists was sworn in on 15 December 2025 [49]; it kept the ammunition initiative for Ukraine, but without Czech state money. [50]
  • In Poland, President Karol Nawrocki had issued 37 vetoes by June 2026, a record. [51]
  • In Italy, the lower house passed Giorgia Meloni's electoral reform on 16 July 2026, with a majority bonus for any bloc above 42%; it still needs the Senate, and an election is due in 2027. [52]

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Europe's right turn: the RN in France, the AfD in Germany, Reform UK: High impact · possible1 · High impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINGERMANYITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Europe's right turn: the RN in France, the AfD in Germany, Reform UK: High impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 25 October 2026 and 25 October 2027, one of three parties that Strature groups here as the national-populist right (the Rassemblement National, the AfD or Reform UK) wins national executive power in France, Germany or the UK. That means an RN candidate elected President of France, or an RN prime minister appointed, or the AfD in a federal coalition, or a Reform UK government. In practice, inside this window it would come through the French presidential election of 18 April and 2 May 2027, or through a snap legislative election in France after a dissolution.

Not under way

Channels 6 on the card

  1. Trade, and what changes for CanadaCETA has applied provisionally since 21 September 2017 [43].
    More

    Most chapters apply, but 9 of 27 member states, France among them, have not ratified it [43]. The National Assembly approved ratification on 23 July 2019 by 266 votes to 213 [61]. The French Senate rejected it by 211 to 44 on 21 March 2024 [42]. As of March 2024 the bill was due to go back to the Assembly, and the government had not scheduled it [42]. On 30 May 2024 the Assembly asked the government, in a non-binding resolution passed 151 to 4, to put the bill back on its agenda; the trade minister said it would be, after a calmer debate [73]. On 1 October 2026 the government defended CETA in a written answer to a senator but gave no date for that vote [75]. An RN president and government would decide whether it ever returns. CETA's provisional terms would continue, but Canada would not get the parts that need full ratification. Strature's Q-027 brief finds that for a goods exporter, CETA's existing terms are the whole offer [44]. On Mercosur, France was one of 5 states that voted against the deal in the Council on 9 January 2026, with Austria, Hungary, Ireland and Poland; it passed 21 to 5 [41]. The European Parliament referred it to the EU Court of Justice by 334 to 324 on 21 January [40]. Strature's view: an RN government would add to the pressure on EU trade deals with the US and Mercosur. The EU-US deal of 21 August 2025 set a 15% tariff ceiling, and the EU removed its duties on US industrial goods from 1 July 2026 [45].

  2. The EU's rules and moneyThe 2028-2034 budget (MFF) needs unanimity in the Council [38].
    More

    The Commission proposed almost EUR 2 trillion, 1.26% of EU gross national income, including EUR 131 billion for defence and space [36]. The General Affairs Council debated the Irish presidency's revised negotiating box on 13 October 2026; the Council aims for a deal by the end of 2026, so that funding can flow from January 2028 [37]. Strature's view: if no deal is reached by spring 2027 [37], an RN president would hold a veto over the final deal. The AfD's 2025 programme calls for Germany to leave the EU and the euro [21]. Strature's view: Hungary's change of government in April 2026 removed one frequent veto [47], and a French veto would be harder to work around.

  3. Russia, Ukraine and enlargementEU leaders welcomed the 21st sanctions package on 16 October 2026, are paying out a EUR 90 billion Ukraine Support Loan for 2026-2027, and opened accession clusters 2 and 3 for Ukraine on 13 October [39].
    More

    Sanctions renewals need every member state. The AfD's programme opposes economic sanctions on Russia [21]. In June 2026 Public Sénat asked whether the RN's line on Ukraine is settled, and reported that Bardella's group opposed the EUR 90 billion loan in February 2026 [56]. In March 2024 Bardella said he opposed leaving NATO's integrated command while the war goes on [57].

  4. Capital marketsThe French 10-year yield was 5.05% and the Bund 3.33% on 23 October 2026, a spread of 171.8 basis points; the one-year average is 78.9 [30].
    More

    Public debt is above 119% of GDP, and the 2026 deficit is expected at 5.4% [31]. Allianz Trade's base case is a spread of 120-150 basis points [31]. Its crisis case is above 200, where the ECB's bond-buying backstop (the TPI) comes into play [31]. Foreign investors hold about 36% of French government bonds [31]. Fitch cut France to A+ in September 2025 [34][35] and S&P did the same on 17 October 2025 [35]. Both now rate France A+ with a stable outlook, after reviews on 28 August and 29 May 2026; S&P's next review is due on 27 November [33]. In its scheduled review of 23 October 2026, Moody's kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook [32]. It said this was not a formal rating action, and that weaker legislative capacity to curb rising debt costs would likely lead to a downgrade, as reported [32]. In the UK, the 30-year gilt yield rose 9 basis points to 5.75% on 20 July 2026, when Burnham spoke of using the room the fiscal rules allow [17]. Strature's view: the gilt market would be the first test of a Reform government's tax and spending plans. These lines describe public market data; Strature does not give investment advice.

  5. MigrationThe EU Pact on Migration and Asylum began to apply on 12 June 2026 [46].
    More

    Bardella has said the RN would put national preference to a constitutional referendum; AFP reports it would go through Article 11 [10]. Delegates added "remigration" to the AfD's 2025 programme; the programme would pay basic income support (Bürgergeld) to foreigners only after ten years of insured work [21]. On 26 August 2025 Nigel Farage said a Reform government would leave the European Convention on Human Rights and detain and deport everyone who arrives illegally [18]. Reform has said it would replace indefinite leave to remain with a five-year renewable visa [19].

  6. Defence and NATOThe AfD's programme would keep Germany in NATO only until a European alliance is built [21].
    More

    In September 2025 Reform said it would reach 2.5% of GDP on defence by year three and 3% within six years [20]. A French president controls the nuclear deterrent and decides on troops for Ukraine. Strature has found no statement of how an RN president would use that power.

Goods 3

  • Government bonds
  • Beef
  • Agri food

Sectors 4

  • Sovereign debt
  • Banks and insurers
  • Agriculture and food
  • Defence

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    The mainstream holds

    The RN loses the 2027 run-off, or wins the presidency without an Assembly majority and governs through a coalition. The AfD stays out of every government; Reform is still third when a UK election is due in 2029.

  2. S2

    One capital turns

    An RN president is elected on 2 May 2027 and wins a working majority in the legislative elections that follow. Paris slows the MFF deal, blocks CETA ratification, puts national preference to a referendum and hardens on Mercosur. Strature's assumption: the OAT-Bund spread stays wider than Allianz Trade's base case.

  3. S3

    Two or more turn

    France turns in 2027, then Reform wins the UK election due by 15 Aug 2029 or the AfD enters a federal coalition after the election due in winter 2029. Sanctions renewals and Ukraine funding become a fight every six months.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Le Pen's average run-off lead over Philippe, across three or more pollsters, falls below 5 points by February 2027 (about 11 points in October)
S1Saxony-Anhalt forms a government without the AfD
S1Reform stays below 22% in PolitPro's trend average
S2The cassation ruling by early April 2027 leaves Le Pen or Bardella free to stand
S2The spread breaks its 22 Oct 2026 high of 174.6bp
S2The MFF 2028-2034 is still unsigned in May 2027
S3The CDU/CSU softens its refusal to work with the AfD, starting in a state
S3Reform goes back above 26%, its projected national share in the May 2026 locals
S3The AfD holds 30% in the 2027 western state elections

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

12%F-0211 · An association track opens
Strature forecast F-0211: 12% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it Strature F-0211 to F-0216 resolve. Strature forecast F-0211: 12% (4 Oct 2026);

Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it

  • F-02128%Forecasts: The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025

    Strature forecast F-0212: 8% (4 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0212: 8% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

  • F-021347%Forecasts: A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025

    Strature forecast F-0213: 47% (4 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0213: 47% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

  • F-021418.3%Forecasts: A package (full or partial), but the EU share falls back

    Strature forecast F-0214: 18.3% (4 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0214: 18.3% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

  • F-021512.9%Forecasts: The summit delivers none of it

    Strature forecast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

  • F-02161.8%Forecasts: All other outcomes

    Strature F-0211 to F-0216 resolve. Strature forecast F-0216: 1.8% (4 Oct 2026)

    Strature forecast F-0216: 1.8% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 17 Nov 2026 Deadline to elect Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's Minister-President (four weeks after the Landtag met on 20 October) [24] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 27 Nov 2026 S&P review of France's rating [33] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. Dec 2026 AfD's Ulrich Siegmund plans to stand for Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt; no date set [71] Tentative · Outside event
  4. 31 Dec 2026 Council target for an MFF 2028-2034 deal; Strature F-0211 to F-0216 resolve. Strature forecast F-0211: 12% (4 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0212: 8% (4 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0213: 47% (4 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0214: 18.3% (4 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0216: 1.8% (4 Oct 2026) [37] [44] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. 2027 French legislative elections, likely after the presidential vote [31] Tentative · Outside event
  6. 2027 Italian general election due [52] Tentative · Outside event
  7. Apr 2027 Court of Cassation ruling on Le Pen, no later than early April [6] Tentative · Outside event
  8. 18 Apr 2027 French presidential election, first round [5] [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  9. 18 Apr 2027 Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein state elections [28] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  10. 25 Apr 2027 North Rhine-Westphalia state election [28] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  11. 2 May 2027 French presidential run-off [5] [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  12. 6 May 2027 UK local elections; Northern Ireland Assembly [53] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  13. 30 May 2027 Bremen state election [28] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  14. 26 Sep 2027 Lower Saxony state election [28] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  15. Jan 2028 New MFF due to start [37] Tentative · Outside event
  16. 2028 Bavaria and Hesse state elections (autumn) [28] Tentative · Outside event
  17. 2029 European Parliament election (spring) [28] Tentative · Outside event
  18. 2029 German federal election (winter; Basic Law Art. 39 window) [28] [29] Tentative · Outside event
  19. 2029 Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg state elections (autumn) [28] Tentative · Outside event
  20. 9 Jul 2029 UK Parliament dissolves by law if no election is called [55] [72] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  21. 15 Aug 2029 Latest date for the next UK general election [55] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Strature's view: a clear result in Paris, either way, would end the budget doubt of recent years and could narrow a spread more than twice its one-year average [30]. For Canada, French doubt about CETA and Mercosur strengthens the case to use the CETA terms that already apply [43][44], and the defence push opens the EUR 131bn EU defence and space window to suppliers [36]. Hungary's turn in April 2026 shows the trend can reverse [47].

Connected in Strature

Sources

71 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl. Wahlrecht.de · 24 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Bundestagswahl: Wahlumfrage vom 24.10.2026 von INSA. DAWUM · 24 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election. Wikipedia · 25 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Présidentielle 2027: sondages et moyennes. EPOC Info · 25 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Le Pen and Melenchon gain momentum ahead of French 2027 election, poll shows. Reuters (via Internazionale) · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Condamnation de Marine Le Pen : la Cour de cassation pourrait se prononcer au plus tard début avril 2027. Public Sénat · 8 Jul 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Le Pen convicted on appeal: 45-month ineligibility, but she can still run in 2027. Eunews · 7 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. La prochaine élection présidentielle aura lieu les 18 avril et 2 mai 2027. Public Sénat · 1 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Le Pen calls for the rebirth of France in campaign speech. blue News (dpa) · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Jordan Bardella promet un référendum pour réviser la Constitution. AFP (via Sud Radio) · 5 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Voting intention, 18-19 October 2026. YouGov · 20 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. UK election polls. PolitPro · 27 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  13. Senedd election 2026 explainer. Institute for Government · 2026-05 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  14. 2026 Election Results. Scottish Parliament · 2026-05 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  15. 2026 elections: England roundup. CIPD · 12 May 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  16. UK: Burnham elected new Labour Party leader. The Pioneer · 18 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  17. UK gilts fall as Burnham seeks flexibility in fiscal rules. Investing.com · 20 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  18. Reform UK chief Nigel Farage says party will mass deport migrants if it wins election. Euronews · 26 Aug 2025 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  19. Reform would abolish indefinite leave to remain. LBC · 13 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  20. Reform UK defence priorities: first 100 days and future if they win power. Forces News · 5 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  21. AfD-Wahlprogramm: Vater, Mutter, Kind - und der EU-Ausstieg. ZDFheute · 12 Jan 2025 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  22. Gericht urteilt: AfD nicht gesichert rechtsextrem - vorerst. ZDFheute · 26 Feb 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  23. Wahl in Sachsen-Anhalt: AfD liegt klar vor CDU. ZDFheute · 7 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  24. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern nach der Wahl: Rot-rot-grüne Nagelprobe. ZDFheute · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  25. Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus Berlin 2026: Die Linke wird erstmals stärkste Kraft. Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung · 22 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  26. Endgültiges Landesergebnis der Landtagswahl 2026 festgestellt. Ministerium des Inneren, Baden-Württemberg · 27 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  27. Wahlanalyse der Landtagswahl in Rheinland-Pfalz am 22. März 2026. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung · 2026-03 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  28. Wahltermine. Wahlrecht.de · 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  29. Basic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany, Article 39. Federal Ministry of Justice · current · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  30. OAT / Bund spread today: 171.8 bps as of Oct 23, 2026. Ideal Investisseur · 23 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  31. Toasted, not burnt: France's bond sell-off and the road to the 2027 election. Allianz Trade · 9 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  32. France dodges downgrade as Moody's keeps Aa3 rating. Seoul Economic Daily · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  33. Moody's : note de la France le 23 octobre. Selectra · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  34. France's debt woes mount as Fitch downgrades credit rating. Bloomberg · 12 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  35. French bond prices decline after unexpected S&P downgrade. Euronews · 20 Oct 2025 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  36. Commission proposal for the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework. European Commission · 16 Jul 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  37. General Affairs Council, 13 October 2026. Council of the EU · 13 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  38. Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, Article 312. EUR-Lex · 2016 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  39. European Council conclusions on Ukraine (16 October 2026). EEAS · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  40. EU parliament votes to challenge Mercosur trade deal. France 24 · 21 Jan 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  41. EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement: From Negotiations to Application. Intereconomics · 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  42. Après son rejet par le Sénat, le CETA est-il menacé ?. Le Club des juristes · 2024-03 · Commentary · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  43. EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). European Commission, DG Trade · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  44. Q-027 Beyond CETA (brief), key question KQ-03 and forecasts F-0211 to F-0216. Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  45. European Union: US tariffs and Canada, notes. Strature Library dossier EUU · 6 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  46. Pact on Migration and Asylum enters into application on 12 June 2026. European Commission Representation in Malta · 11 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  47. Tisza Party wins Hungary election with constitutional majority. BTA · 13 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  48. Electoral council confirms D66 election win as Dutch coalition talks continue. IamExpat · 10 Nov 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  49. Czech president swears in new government led by populist PM Babiš. GNA (AP) · 15 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  50. Czech government to keep ammunition initiative, but without state funding. Expats.cz · 7 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  51. Nawrocki issues record 37th veto. Notes from Poland · 12 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  52. Italy's parliament backs Meloni's contested electoral reform. Reuters (via Internazionale) · 16 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  53. 2027 United Kingdom local elections. Wikipedia · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  54. Next United Kingdom general election. Wikipedia · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  55. Jordan Bardella en Pologne : un déplacement qui ne lève pas les ambiguïtés du RN sur l'Ukraine et l'Europe. Public Sénat · 19 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  56. OTAN : Jordan Bardella contre une sortie du commandement intégré en période de guerre. Europe 1 · 28 Mar 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  57. Was im AfD-Gutachten steht und was nicht. Correctiv · 15 May 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  58. Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026. Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung · 21 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  59. L'Assemblée approuve la ratification du Ceta, record de contestations chez LREM. Public Sénat · 23 Jul 2019 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  60. Baromètre d'intentions de vote présidentielle 2027, vague 7, notice technique. Ifop-Fiducial for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio · 20 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  61. Intentions de vote à l'élection présidentielle 2027, notice technique. Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche · 17 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  62. Intentions de vote à l'élection présidentielle de 2027, notice technique. Ipsos BVA and CESI for Le Parisien · 24 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  63. Intentions de vote à l'élection présidentielle 2027, notice technique. OpinionWay for CNews · 22 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  64. Intentions de vote à l'élection présidentielle 2027, notice technique. Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL · 23 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  65. Intentions de vote 10.2026, notice technique. YouGov for Le HuffPost · 18 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  66. Manifestations du 17 octobre : un week-end marqué par des violences, des pillages et d'importantes dégradations. Économie Matin · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  67. L'état d'urgence après les violences urbaines, notice technique. CSA for CNews, Europe 1 and JDD · 22 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  68. Regierungsbildung in Sachsen-Anhalt: Wann wird der Ministerpräsident gewählt?. Stuttgarter Zeitung (dpa) · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  69. Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, section 4. legislation.gov.uk · 2022 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  70. CETA : le gouvernement sommé de soumettre l'accord commercial avec le Canada à un vote de l'Assemblée nationale. LCP · 30 May 2024 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  71. Question écrite n° 07580 and the government's answer. Sénat · 1 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 3 · last change: reviewed · All risks