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The Lecornu government falls before France adopts its 2027 budget

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and the day the 2027 finance law is promulgated or put in force by ordinance (at the latest 31 Mar 2027), the National Assembly adopts a censure motion against the Lecornu government, or Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigns.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth3
Duration6
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Debate on the revenue part resumed 27 Oct; on the agenda again on 28 Oct [19]
  2. Conference of Presidents: Saturday 31 Oct sitting on the revenue part withdrawn, no change to the week of 2 Nov; solemn vote on the whole 2027 bill on 17 Nov; next Conference 3 Nov [18]
  3. Moody's kept Aa3, negative outlook; downgrade likely if the legislature cannot act on debt affordability [10]
  4. OAT-Bund 10-year spread 171.8 bp; one-year average 78.9 bp; one-year high 174.6 bp on 22 Oct; OAT 10-year 5.05% [9]
  5. Solemn vote on the revenue part, set for 20 Oct, postponed; more than 2,800 amendments left; Assembly deadline 17 Nov [6]
  6. Conference of Presidents: debate on the revenue part resumes 27 Oct; solemn vote on it Tue 3 Nov 2026, after questions to the government [17]
Show 6 earlier changes
  1. About 550,000 marchers (Interior Ministry) and 2,397 arrests on 17 Oct; Lecornu tasked with consultations [12]
  2. S&P A+ stable, next review 27 Nov 2026; Fitch A+ stable [11]
  3. Assembly rejected the Socialist motion to throw out the 2027 bill, 236 to 149; SOC 64, LFI 51, ECOS 26, GDR 8 for; RN 62 against [1]
  4. Finance committee rejected the revenue part of the 2027 bill, 31-3, 2 abstentions; deficit target 5% of GDP, rapporteur's estimate 5.35-5.4% after votes [5]
  5. Allianz Trade: adverse scenario (a government fall with a global bond sell-off) spreads 150-175 bp and 2027 growth 0.0%; EUR25bn gross interest cost per 100 bp; foreign holders 36% of OATs [8]
  6. Censure motions failed 16 Oct 2025 (271 of 289 needed) and 14 Jan 2026 (256 of 288) [2]

Why it matters

France's minority government must pass its 2027 budget through an Assembly where the opposition holds enough seats to bring it down. On 13 Oct the Socialists, who kept the government alive in January, voted to throw out the budget bill. The French-German spread stood at 171.8 basis points on 23 Oct, against a one-year average of 78.9.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: LFI's pledge, the Socialist vote of 13 Oct to reject the bill, the committee's 31-3 rejection, 331 opposition seats against 288 needed, the 17 Oct riots, Moody's warning.

Why Impact 5 Key price the OAT-Bund spread; Allianz Trade's adverse scenario (150-175 bp, a fall together with a global sell-off) sits near the current level; the one-year-average rule is not applied because most of the move from 78.9 bp happened before the scoring date and money at stake is measured against the state on that date.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Left motion 269 votes and RN motion 142 against 288 needed after the 49.3 on the 2026 budget [3] (23 Jan 2026)
  • Censure motion against the Barnier government adopted with 331 votes, filed under Article 49.3 [4] (4 Dec 2024)
  • La France insoumise pledged to censure the Lecornu government over its 2027 budget [14] (23 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Lecornu government falls before France adopts its 2027 budget: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINGERMANYITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Lecornu government falls before France adopts its 2027 budget: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and the day the 2027 finance law is promulgated or put in force by ordinance (at the latest 31 Mar 2027), the National Assembly adopts a censure motion against the Lecornu government, or Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigns.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Bond marketsAllianz Trade's adverse scenario, which includes a government fall alongside a global bond sell-off, puts the spread at 150-175 bp and 2027 growth at 0.0% [8].
  3. Borrowing costsA 100 bp rise adds about EUR25bn of gross interest costs over three to six months (Allianz Trade) [8].
  4. The budgetA fall before adoption would leave France without its 2027 budget in force, and the 5% deficit target [5] further out of reach (Strature's view).
  5. The euro areaECB TPI only above 200 bp with contagion (Allianz Trade) [8].

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
France, European Union
Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Muddle through

    The budget passes by Article 49.3 or ordinance and censure motions fail without the Socialists.

  2. S2

    A censure motion carries

    A motion wins the 288-289 votes needed, as against Barnier in Dec 2024.

  3. S3

    Resignation

    Lecornu resigns before a vote, as his first government did in Oct 2025.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No motion above 270 votes by 31 Dec 2026
S2A group large enough to change the count announcing it will vote censure after a 49.3
S3The 17 Nov Assembly deadline passing with no deal

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2026 Solemn vote on the first part (revenue) of the 2027 budget bill [17] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 17 Nov 2026 Solemn vote on the whole 2027 bill; deadline for the Assembly's first reading [6] [18] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 27 Nov 2026 S&P review of France [11] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. Dec 2026 Budget expected by year-end by ordinance or 49.3 (Allianz Trade baseline) [8] Tentative · Window
  5. 18 Apr 2027 Presidential election, first round [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · FRANCE · strature.net

The other side

A budget adopted under pressure could lock in a deficit path that the rating agencies reward; Moody's ties its outlook to the legislature's ability to act [10]. The spread's one-year average was 78.9 basis points [9].

Connected in Strature

Sources

15 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Scrutin public n° 8707: motion de rejet préalable du projet de loi de finances pour 2027. Assemblée nationale · 13 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. Second Lecornu government. Wikipedia · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. PLF : Sébastien Lecornu surmonte deux motions de censure et engage un nouveau 49.3. Banque des Territoires · 23 Jan 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. Scrutin public n° 519: motion de censure (article 49, alinéa 3, de la Constitution). Assemblée nationale · 4 Dec 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. PLF 2027 : la commission des finances rejette la partie recettes. Legifiscal · 11 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. Budget 2027, fonction publique, cybersécurité. Acteurs Publics · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Toasted, not burnt: France's bond sell-off and the road to the 2027 election. Allianz Trade · 9 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. OAT / Bund spread today. Ideal Investisseur · 23 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. France dodges downgrade as Moody's keeps Aa3 rating. Seoul Economic Daily · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Moody's : note de la France le 23 octobre. Selectra · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Manifestations du 17 octobre : un week-end marqué par des violences, des pillages et d'importantes dégradations. Economie Matin · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Jean-Luc Mélenchon annonce la censure du budget et estime que "la victoire est possible" en 2027. LCP Assemblée nationale · 23 Aug 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. Relevé de conclusions de la Conférence des présidents, réunion du mardi 20 octobre 2026. Assemblée nationale · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  14. Relevé de conclusions de la Conférence des présidents, réunion du mardi 27 octobre 2026. Assemblée nationale · 27 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  15. Séance publique, ordre du jour (suite du projet de loi de finances pour 2027, première partie). Assemblée nationale · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: scores unchanged · All risks