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World risk · Regulation and compliance

Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into law by 31 Mar 2027

The test Congress passes a law converting MPV 1394/2026 that keeps a nationwide ban on fixed-odds betting on real sports events, and the law is published between 25 Oct 2026 and 31 Mar 2027; a lapse, or a conversion that re-legalises sports betting, does not count.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 25 Sep 2026: MPV 1394/2026 published

Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth3
Depth3
Duration9
Hard to substitute5
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. MPV 1394/2026 published 25 Sep 2026 bans the operation, offer, brokering and advertising of fixed-odds bets, including by operators abroad and state-authorised bets [1]
  2. 99 amendments filed from 25 Sep to 13 Oct; 5 withdrawn; urgency from 9 Nov; first 60-day term ends 23 Nov [1]
  3. Joint committee still awaiting installation on 26 Oct 2026 [1]
  4. PTAX R$5.0377 per US dollar on 23 Oct 2026 and R$5.5007 on 26 Oct 2026 (used to convert the gaming revenue) [15]
  5. Likelihood 4 to 5; Impact 2 to 5.
  6. Lula was re-elected on 25 Oct 2026 on the TSE's count: with 100% of sections totalled, 51.79% of valid votes to 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro [16]
Show 12 earlier changes
  1. Agencia Brasil reported Lula re-elected on the evening of 25 Oct 2026 [11]
  2. Joint committee awaiting installation, no chair or rapporteur, on 20 Oct 2026 [4]
  3. No STF ruling by 19 Oct; Fux gave the government 72 hours on 2 Oct; AGU asked on 6 Oct to keep the ban in full; Abert filed 30 Sep; clubs joined or filed 30 Sep-2 Oct; Poder360 expected the decision after the runoff (no ruling found by 27 Oct) [14]
  4. Centrao lawmakers, clubs and the football confederation plan to restore sports betting and keep an online casino ban, with talks after the runoff (citing Folha) [5]
  5. The AGU asked the Supreme Court on 2 Oct to declare Laws 13.756/2018 and 14.790/2023 unconstitutional [7]
  6. Chamber consultancy note of 29 Sep: estimates do not show their method; Finance Ministry data: gross gaming revenue R$36.9bn in 2025 and R$20.07bn in H1 2026 [3]
  7. Sites offline 10 days after publication; licences end 30 days after it, with no refund of fees; banks and payment firms barred from processing bets; app stores and platforms must block them [2]
  8. Government estimates lost tax revenue of R$1.541bn in 2026, R$5.150bn in 2027 and R$5.330bn in 2028 [2]
  9. 85 federal authorisations in force, each paid R$30m, R$2.55bn in all [6]
  10. ANJL president cites about 30 million bettors; the trade outlet puts direct and indirect jobs at about 60,000 [8]
  11. ANJL and IBJR asked the Supreme Court on 28 Sep to suspend the measure; rapporteur Luiz Fux [6]
  12. Lula's campaign made curbing betting one of its flags; football clubs said in a manifesto of 17 Sep that betting is now their main income source (as reported) [12]

Why it matters

A provisional measure of 25 Sep 2026 bans fixed-odds betting in Brazil, online and on site, and ended every federal licence 30 days later. It lapses unless Congress converts it into law, and a month in, the joint committee had no chair or rapporteur. Centrao lawmakers want sports betting back, while Lula, who issued the ban, was re-elected in the 25 Oct runoff.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: urgency from 9 Nov; the AGU argues the betting laws are unconstitutional. Brakes: committee still not installed on 26 Oct; Centrao push to restore sports betting; Supreme Court challenges, ruling still pending on 27 Oct (Poder360 expected it after the runoff).

Why Impact 5 Threshold case: the ban becomes law.

The other facts on file (1)
  • Of 179 provisional measures Lula issued in this term to 31 Dec 2025, 37 (about 21%) became law and 102 lapsed without a vote [9] (24 Jan 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into law by 31 Mar 2027. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into law by 31 Mar 2027Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · Brazil
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 25 Oct 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · BRAZIL · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Congress passes a law converting MPV 1394/2026 that keeps a nationwide ban on fixed-odds betting on real sports events, and the law is published between 25 Oct 2026 and 31 Mar 2027; a lapse, or a conversion that re-legalises sports betting, does not count.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian exposure was found.
  2. RulesA law would make the ban lasting; an unconverted measure loses effect and Congress settles its effects by decree; without a decree in 60 days, acts done under the measure stand (art. 62 par. 11) [10].
  3. BudgetBrazil gives up a betting tax take the government puts at about R$5bn a year from 2027 [2].
  4. TechnologyPayment firms, app stores and platforms keep standing duties to block betting.
  5. Sport and mediaFootball clubs say betting is now their main income source (as reported) [12].

Sectors 2

  • Technology
  • Banks and insurers

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Brazil
Sectors
Technology, Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    The ban becomes law

    Congress converts the measure with the sports ban intact, perhaps with a transition or fee refunds.

  2. S2

    Sports betting returns

    Congress converts it but restores licensed sports betting and bans only online casinos.

  3. S3

    The measure lapses

    No vote before the term ends; Congress must settle the effects by decree.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A committee report keeping the sports ban
S2A rapporteur's text on the casino-only line
S3The committee still not installed by 23 Nov 2026

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 9 Nov 2026 Urgency starts; the measure blocks the agenda of the house holding it [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 23 Nov 2026 First 60-day term ends; it runs a further 60 days if Congress has not voted [10] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 23 Dec 2026 Congressional recess to 1 Feb 2027; the term's clock stops [10] Declared · Window

    Remind me

  4. 4 Mar 2027 End of validity if not converted (Strature's count; no official date published) [10] Tentative · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · BRAZIL · strature.net

The other side

A clear law, either way, ends the uncertainty for payment firms, clubs and advertisers. If the ban holds, the government expects lower household debt and health costs; if sports betting returns, a narrower licensed market keeps part of the tax take (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

15 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Medida Provisória nº 1394, de 2026 (Proibição das bets no Brasil). Congresso Nacional · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. Sumário Executivo da Medida Provisória nº 1.394, de 2026. Senado Federal, Consultoria Legislativa · 29 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Congresso indica comissão mista da MP das Bets e Consultoria da Câmara aponta falta de metodologia nas contas do governo. BNLData · 1 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. MP das bets segue sem comissão instalada no Congresso. Focus Gaming News Brasil · 21 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Centrão articula no Congresso a volta das apostas esportivas após eleições presidenciais. Focus Gaming News Brasil · 9 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. Associações de bets pedem ao STF a suspensão da MP que proíbe apostas on-line. Diario de Pernambuco · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. AGU pede ao STF que declare inconstitucionais leis que legalizaram bets. Diario de Pernambuco · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. ANJL ingressa com ação direta de inconstitucionalidade no STF para suspender medida provisória que proíbe as bets. iGaming Business Brasil · 28 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. MP do Gás do Povo e outras 9 perdem a validade em fevereiro. Poder360 · 24 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Constituição da República Federativa do Brasil de 1988, arts. 57 and 62. Presidência da República (Planalto) · as amended · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Lula é reeleito presidente do Brasil em virada histórica. Agência Brasil · 25 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Na reta final da eleição, Lula edita MP que restringe bets. Correio da Manhã · 24 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. Passado o 2º turno, Fux deve decidir se MP das bets vale ou não. Poder360 · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  14. SGS series 1, US dollar PTAX (sell), 20-26 Oct 2026. Banco Central do Brasil · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  15. Results file, 2nd round, President, Brazil (br-c0001-e006258-u.json; 25/10/2026 23:27:02; 100% of sections totalled). Tribunal Superior Eleitoral · 25 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks