Will the KMT win 13 or more of Taiwan's 22 mayor and county posts on 28 Nov?
The test Candidates nominated by the KMT win 13 or more of the 22 mayor and county-magistrate posts in the local elections of 28 Nov 2026 (a candidate jointly backed by the KMT and TPP counts only if the KMT nominated them).
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Elections on 28 Nov 2026; KMT-TPP coordination agreed March 2026; Huang Kuo-chang suspended New Taipei campaign April 2026; TPP ended cooperation in Hsinchu County 6 Sep 2026 [2]
- NSB: China shifting interference to specific groups; about 2.58 million intrusion attempts a day on the Government Service Network as of September [4]
- 2,302 vote-buying reports involving 2,593 people as of 19 Oct, 35.9% of 6,415 election offences; 53 Anti-Infiltration Act cases [5]
- Registration 31 Aug-4 Sep 2026; 81 candidates in 22 races; KMT fields no candidate in Hsinchu City, Chiayi City (TPP's Chang Chi-kai runs) or Chiayi County; KMT incumbents run in Taipei, Taoyuan, Keelung, Miaoli, Nantou, Lienchiang [1]
- Defence ministry: legislature's military budget funded 10 of 23 critical projects [7]
- KMT caucus does not rule out deleting the NT$233.83bn CPC capital injection [8]
Why it matters
Taiwan votes for 22 mayors and county heads on 28 Nov 2026. The KMT won 14 of these posts in 2022 and the DPP 5, but this year the KMT runs in only 19 of the 22 races, so it must win 13 of the 19 it contests. Prosecutors had 2,302 vote-buying reports by 19 Oct, and the National Security Bureau says China's interference has become more targeted.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: six incumbents running; KMT-TPP pact in New Taipei. Brakes: KMT runs in only 19 races so needs 13 of 19; Chiayi City now has a TPP candidate; pact broke in Hsinchu County; DPP targets four KMT-held seats. No poll is cited. Not a prediction or a call of the result.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: the KMT wins exactly 13.
The other facts on file (2)
- 2022 result KMT 14, DPP 5, TPP 2, independent 1; KMT 50.14%, DPP 41.57% of the mayoral and magistrate vote; Chiayi City voted 18 Dec 2022 [3] (18 Dec 2022)
- DPP legislator Lin Chun-hsien expects to keep Tainan and Kaohsiung, targets Chiayi City, Yilan and Changhua; New Taipei the key battleground [6] (29 Jun 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Candidates nominated by the KMT win 13 or more of the 22 mayor and county-magistrate posts in the local elections of 28 Nov 2026 (a candidate jointly backed by the KMT and TPP counts only if the KMT nominated them).
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced.
- Cross-strait policy and defenceA strong KMT result carries its legislative stance on defence and energy budgets [7][8] into the 2028 campaign [6].
- The 2028 raceThe DPP says failing to win New Taipei while losing Tainan and Kaohsiung would hurt President Lai's re-election plans.
- Rules and complianceThe vote tests the Anti-Infiltration Act and election-finance enforcement.
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Taiwan, China, United States
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Straits
- Taiwan Strait
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Blue holds
The KMT wins 13 or more, keeping Taipei, Taoyuan and New Taipei.
- S2
Narrow miss
The KMT wins 11-12, losing New Taipei or a county to the DPP.
- S3
Green rebound
The DPP wins 8 or more posts.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Results of 28 Nov 2026 |
| S2 | The DPP holds Tainan and Kaohsiung and gains one of Chiayi City, Yilan or Changhua |
| S3 | Results of 28 Nov 2026 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Premier's target for third reading of the supplementary budget [10] Declared · Outside event
- 28 Nov 2026 Local elections, 22 mayor and county posts [1] Declared · Outside event
- 2028 Presidential and legislative elections (month not confirmed) [11] Tentative · Outside event
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
A clean vote, with interference cases sent to court before polling day, would strengthen confidence in Taiwan's institutions.
Connected in Strature
- Taiwan
- Taiwan Strait
- Taiwan
- China
- United States
- Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budget by more than a tenth, or lets it lapse Drives: The same opposition parties decide the supplementary budget days after the vote.
- China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade Shares a channel: Cross-strait pressure and China's election interference.
Sources
10 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- 2026九合一選舉 22縣市長登記參選名單一次看. Central News Agency · 4 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 2026 Taiwanese local elections. Wikipedia · 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 2022 Taiwanese local elections. Wikipedia · 2022 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- China escalating election interference efforts, NSB says. Taipei Times · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Claims of vote-buying across Taiwan being probed. Taipei Times · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- 影響賴清德2028連任! (DPP's Lin Chun-hsien on the 2026 races). Newtalk · 29 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Executive Yuan approves record budget. Taipei Times · 4 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 政院追加預算中油增資最多 綠指穩定物價藍不排除全刪. Central News Agency · 3 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 政院:追加預算年底若未審畢 社福津貼加碼恐將失效. United Daily News (CNA) · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 油電撥補預算逾4100億 藍白嚴審批全民填洞、憂宣傳戰兩難. United Daily News · 3 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks