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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4.85% or more by year end

The test At its meeting of 2-3 Nov or 7-8 Dec 2026, the RBA Monetary Policy Board sets the cash rate target at 4.85% or higher.

Not under way · Confidence: high · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
8High rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 28 Oct 2026: September-quarter core inflation above the RBA's August path; futures lean strongly to a November rise.

Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 7 to 8.
  2. ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures, 28 Oct close: November 2026 contract at 95.215, an 82% expectation of a rise to 4.85% on 3 Nov (22% on 20 Oct, 60% on 27 Oct); implied yield 4.855% for January 2027 and 4.91% for February 2027, against a 4.60% cash rate [10]
  3. September quarter 2026: CPI up 1.3% in the quarter and 3.9% a year (year figure a Strature calculation on the ABS index, 103.64 against 99.73); trimmed mean up 1.0% in the quarter and 3.7% a year (ABS quarterly series on the pre-October 2025 basis). Monthly CPI 4.3% in the 12 months to September (4.0% to August); monthly trimmed mean 3.6% (August revised to 3.5%); automotive fuel up 9.4% in September and 23.6% a year; next release 25 Nov [11]
  4. Market consensus (ABC) for the September quarter: headline CPI 1.3% for the quarter and 3.9% a year; trimmed mean about 1.0% for the quarter, as reported; CBA says that is above the RBA's August forecast of about 0.8% a quarter; Sarah Hunter, asked on 60 Minutes (aired 25 Oct) whether the Bank had done enough: not quite yet; AUD 70.32 US cents [6]
  5. Diesel terminal gate prices 256.3 to 273.3 cents a litre in the capitals [9]
  6. Impact 3 to 4.
Show 7 earlier changes
  1. Board meetings 2-3 Nov and 7-8 Dec 2026; 8-9 Feb 2027 [4]
  2. Dated Brent near US$134 a barrel [8]
  3. Cash rate target changes: 3.85% on 4 Feb, 4.10% on 18 Mar, 4.35% on 6 May, 4.60% on 30 Sep 2026 [3]
  4. CPI 4.0% in the 12 months to August 2026 (3.5% in July); trimmed mean 3.6%; automotive fuel up 14.8% in August on higher world oil prices and the end of excise relief; next release 28 Oct [5]
  5. Housing credit up 7.3% in the 12 months to August 2026 (6.1% a year earlier) [7]
  6. Cash rate target raised 25 bp to 4.60%, unanimous; energy prices much higher than assumed in August; further rises if needed [1]
  7. Minutes: hold briefly considered; petrol and diesel prices 13% above the August forecast; August path to the midpoint by around late 2027 no longer appeared likely to all happen; markets expected about 15 bp more by year end [2]

Why it matters

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 Sep 2026, its fourth rise of the year, and said it would raise it again if needed. September-quarter trimmed-mean inflation was 1.0%, above the RBA's August path of about 0.8% a quarter. ASX futures put a November rise at 82% on 28 Oct, up from 22% on 20 Oct, and price about one full step by the 8 Dec meeting, the last in the window (Strature calculation). One more step of 25 basis points before 31 Dec 2026 would complete the event.

Why Likelihood 8 Pushes: September-quarter trimmed mean above the RBA's August path [11][6]; annual CPI inflation up again in September [11]; fuel prices well above the August forecast [2]; ASX futures lean strongly to a November rise on 28 Oct and price about one full step by the 8 Dec meeting [10]; two meetings left.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case one 25 bp rise.

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4.85% or more by year end: Elevated impact · likely1 · Elevated impact · likelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4.85% or more by year end: Elevated impact · likelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

At its meeting of 2-3 Nov or 7-8 Dec 2026, the RBA Monetary Policy Board sets the cash rate target at 4.85% or higher.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian channel sourced.
  2. HouseholdsVariable mortgage rates rise; housing credit still growing 7.3% a year.
  3. The Australian dollarThe AUD was 70.32 US cents on 26 Oct (AEDT); Strature gives no view on the currency.
  4. Fuel and freightTighter policy does not lower pump prices, set by world markets (Strature's view).

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Australia
Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    November rise

    The September-quarter trimmed mean comes in near 1.0% and the Board moves on 3 Nov.

  2. S2

    December rise

    The Board holds in November, then moves on 8 Dec after another hot monthly CPI.

  3. S3

    The Board waits

    Despite the hot September-quarter figures, the Board holds on 3 Nov and again in December, citing slower growth and falling house prices; the next rise slips to February 2027 or never comes.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1ABS CPI release on 28 Oct 2026
S2November CPI release and the November minutes
S3The RBA's decision of 3 Nov 2026

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2026 RBA Monetary Policy Board decision (meeting 2-3 Nov) [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 17 Nov 2026 Minutes of the November meeting [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 8 Dec 2026 RBA Monetary Policy Board decision (meeting 7-8 Dec) [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 9 Feb 2027 First RBA decision of 2027 (meeting 8-9 Feb) [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · AUSTRALIA · strature.net

The other side

Savers and retirees living on deposit income gain from higher rates. A Board that acts early on inflation expectations may need fewer rises later (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

11 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision (Media Release 2026-27). Reserve Bank of Australia · 29 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board, 28-29 September 2026. Reserve Bank of Australia · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Cash Rate Target. Reserve Bank of Australia · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Monetary Policy Board meeting schedules. Reserve Bank of Australia · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Consumer Price Index, Australia, August 2026. Australian Bureau of Statistics · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. ASX markets and business live, 26 October. ABC News · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Financial Aggregates, August 2026. Reserve Bank of Australia · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Terminal Gate Prices. Australian Institute of Petroleum · 26 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. RBA Rate Tracker (November 2026), with 30 day interbank cash rate futures implied yield curve. ASX · 28 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  11. Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026. Australian Bureau of Statistics · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: Likelihood 7 to 8 · All risks