Indonesia sends forces on an operation under its new "Badr" pact
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Indonesian armed forces units deploy to an operation (not an exercise, training course, exhibition or UN- or Board of Peace-mandated mission) on the territory of another Badr signatory or alongside its forces, with the Badr memorandum or a later agreement among its signatories named by an official source as the basis.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Qatar, Indonesia, Pakistan and Turkey defence ministries, with Pakistan's DIPO and Turkey's SSB, signed the Badr MoU: defence manufacturing, capabilities, technical training, R&D; others may join [1]
- Qatar's deputy PM met the signatories on mechanisms for operationalizing the MoU [2]
- Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence pact in August; its parties are those three; sent to Turkish parliament 20 Oct 2026; Turkey has a base in Qatar [3]
- Khawaja Asif: shared commitment to regional peace and stability; joint production and technology transfer [4]
- Al Jazeera: the pact aims to cut dependence on outside arms suppliers [5]
Why it matters
On 21 Oct 2026 Indonesia, Qatar, Pakistan and Turkey signed the Badr memorandum of understanding in Doha. Its stated scope is defence manufacturing, capabilities, technical training and research, not mutual defence. The risk is that the memorandum grows into a basis for sending Indonesian units on operations with its partners, at a time of war in the Gulf.
Why Likelihood 2 Pushes, none towards an operation under Badr: war in the Gulf; troops readied in March for a mandated Gaza mission, which the event excludes. Brakes: no defence clause in the memorandum; Indonesia paused even a mandated mission over safety; signed by a deputy minister for industry.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: one unit on one operation.
The other facts on file (4)
- Defence Minister Sjafrie: 20,000 troops readied for Gaza, cut to 8,000 [6] (12 Mar 2026)
- State Secretary suspended the Gaza deployment until an undetermined time over the Middle East escalation [7] (17 Mar 2026)
- Commission I and government approved the Indonesia-Turkey defence cooperation ratification bill; plenary vote next [8] (1 Jul 2026)
- DPR plenary passed the Indonesia-Turkey and Indonesia-Malaysia defence cooperation ratification bills, chaired by Speaker Puan Maharani [11] (21 Jul 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Indonesia sends forces on an operation under its new "Badr" pactImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low. · Indonesia
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Indonesian armed forces units deploy to an operation (not an exercise, training course, exhibition or UN- or Board of Peace-mandated mission) on the territory of another Badr signatory or alongside its forces, with the Badr memorandum or a later agreement among its signatories named by an official source as the basis.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian channel directly hit.
- Indonesia's foreign policyAn operation with Gulf or South Asian partners would break with the 2026 record of a mandated mission, paused for safety [7] (Strature reading).
- Regional securityIndonesian forces with Turkey in Qatar or with Pakistan would draw Indonesia into the Gulf war or South Asian tensions (Strature reading).
- Defence industryThe memorandum's real channel is arms production.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Industry only
Badr yields joint production and training deals; no forces move.
- S2
Exercises
Joint drills or training under Badr, which do not count here.
- S3
Operations
A wider Gulf war or a partner's request leads to an Indonesian unit deploying with a partner under Badr.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A first joint production contract |
| S2 | A ministry notice of a Badr exercise |
| S3 | A request in Jakarta for House approval of a deployment naming Badr |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed strike on Iran) resolves
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed strike on Iran) resolves [9] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Indonesia
- Turkey
- Qatar
- Pakistan
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Shares a channel: The Gulf war in which Turkey's base in Qatar sits.
- India and Pakistan strike each other's territory again Shares a channel: An operation alongside Pakistan would meet India-Pakistan tensions.
Sources
10 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Qatar, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkiye sign Badr MoU to promote defense industries cooperation. Qatar News Agency · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Deputy PM meets defence officials of Badr MoU signatory countries. Qatar Tribune · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Türkiye, Qatar, Indonesia, Pakistan sign defense accord. Hürriyet Daily News · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Pakistan, Turkiye, Qatar, and Indonesia sign defence cooperation accord. Geo News · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Qatar, Turkiye, Pakistan and Indonesia sign Badr defence pact. Al Jazeera · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Indonesia prepares gradual deployment of troops for Gaza peace mission. RRI · 12 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Indonesia suspends deployment of 8,000 peacekeepers to Gaza. Indonesian National Police news portal · 18 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Wamenhan hadiri Raker Komisi I DPR RI bahas RUU kerja sama pertahanan RI-Turki dan RI-Malaysia. Ministry of Defence of Indonesia · 1 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Strature forecast register, F-0074. Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- DPR mengesahkan RUU ratifikasi kerja sama pertahanan Indonesia-Turki dan Malaysia. Metro TV News · 21 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks